General Motors (NYSE: GM | GM Price Prediction) and Ford (NYSE: F) both raised full-year guidance this summer, yet the market is treating them very differently. Since GM’s board authorized a $6 billion buyback on June 11, 2024, the hare sprinted past the tortoise. In 2026, the hare is napping. Ford is quietly outrunning its rival year to date, and both are running against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY).
The Sprint, the Trailing Year, and the Flip
GM’s original authorization was followed by more capital returns: a 25% dividend hike and another $6 billion buyback in February 2025, then a further $6 billion repurchase approved in January 2026. That drumbeat shrank the diluted share count to 893 million, 35% below Q2 2023. Ford has leaned instead on its 4.18% dividend yield and smaller buybacks.
| Window | GM | Ford | SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Since June 11, 2024 | +77.07% | +35.04% | +42.93% |
| Trailing 1 Year | +50.23% | +30.66% | +19.30% |
| Year to Date | +3.41% | +12.85% | +12.54% |
Why GM’s Lead Stopped Widening
GM’s Q2 earnings report looked strong on the surface. Adjusted EPS came in at $3.57 versus $3.18 expected, and management raised the full-year EBIT-adjusted range to $14.0 to $16.0 billion. But $2.28 billion in EV strategic realignment charges pressured GAAP results, and quarterly earnings growth registered −26.2% year over year. Ford’s direction is the opposite: quarterly earnings growth of +430.8% year over year, with Model E losses narrowing and Ford Pro paid subscriptions reaching roughly 1.6 million, up about 50% year over year. CEO Jim Farley described the business as “a more profitable, more disciplined, and generally different company.”
What Wall Street Is Paying For
Analysts lean harder toward GM. The consensus price target is $100.04 for GM versus $15.78 for Ford. GM’s analyst rating split is seven Strong Buy, 15 Buy, four Hold, one Sell, and one Strong Sell. Ford’s is three Strong Buy, five Buy, 13 Hold, and one Sell. Forward P/E offers a similar frame: GM at 6x, Ford at 8x. Institutional ownership is 90.5% for GM versus 68.0% for Ford, which caps how much fresh sponsorship GM can pull in from here.
The Takeaway
GM did what it promised on capital returns, and the buyback-window result reflects that discipline. Ford’s turnaround, however, is where the year-over-year deltas are widening fastest. For steadier cash conversion and Detroit’s biggest buyback engine, GM still fits. For exposure to operating leverage on a leaner cost base, with the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy still not yet reflected in the numbers, Ford is the more interesting high-variance bet. But don’t forget that the hare woke up once before.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks