Gwynne Shotwell stood on stage in Louisiana this morning to unveil a $100 billion rocket launch facility, a project big enough to give SpaceX a second Starbase and shift a chunk of American aerospace payroll to the Gulf Coast. Elon Musk retweeted her keynote within hours. Six weeks earlier, Shotwell and her husband announced they would gift a share of SpaceX stock to a Trump Account for each of more than 2 million American children through the Invest America program. On July 6, when the gift was announced, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) closed at $160.42. Today it trades at $137.95. Every one of those kids is underwater.
2 Million Kid-Sized Losses
Shotwell’s pledge was one share per child, roughly 2 million shares in total, worth about $325 million at the July gift price, according to CNBC’s reporting. At today’s price, each account’s single share is worth $22.47 less than on July 6, translating to a collective paper loss near $45 million across the roughly 2 million gifted shares. The gifted stake, worth roughly $320 million on July 6, is worth about $276 million now.
SPCX has slid 15.85% since July 6, and 16.12% off its intraday IPO high of $160.95 reached shortly after its June debut. The stock popped 2.19% today on the Starbase news, but the trajectory since the Trump Accounts gift has been unmistakably lower.
Why Wall Street Is Nervous About a Trillion-Dollar Rocket Company
The selling reflects the size of the bet Musk is asking public shareholders to underwrite. SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company, filed August 4, showed revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, beating estimates by 14.59%. It also showed a net loss of $541 million and an EPS of -$0.09.
The loss stems from capital spending on a scale with no real precedent outside hyperscalers. SpaceX spent $18.37 billion on capex in a single quarter, of which $15.83 billion went to AI compute infrastructure. Management told investors to expect the next two quarters to look “very similar”. The company sits on a $93.52 billion cash pile, backed by $25 billion in inaugural investment-grade notes issued at a 5.855% weighted average rate. Now Shotwell wants another $100 billion for Louisiana.
That tension is driving the stock lower. SpaceX is running an AI hyperscaler, a satellite ISP, a launch business, and two coastal industrial campuses simultaneously, paying with cash flow that has not yet turned positive at the net-income line. Musk moved his internal target for $1 trillion in revenue from 2031 to 2030, but the market is pricing the interim risk.
What to Watch Next Quarter
The signal that matters is the Q3 capex figure and whether the $60 billion Cursor acquisition closes on time. If capital intensity keeps compounding without a corresponding lift in AI segment operating income, the 2 million kids sitting on their single share will wait for the story to turn. If Starship Flight 14 delivers the first V3 Starlink satellites to orbit and Cursor clears regulators, the same share becomes the best gift in a custodial account in America. That outcome sets the value of the Trump Accounts gift a year from now.
Data Sources
- SpaceX Starbase Louisiana keynote announcement supplied the news hook: Shotwell’s keynote, the $100 billion facility figure, and Musk’s amplification.
- SpaceX Q2 2026 8-K and earnings call provided revenue, EPS, capex, cash, and forward capex commentary.
- CNBC and The Hill reporting from July 6, 2026 supplied the structure of the Shotwell gift (one share per child, roughly 2 million children).
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