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Live: Will Intuit’s Q4 Earnings Tonight Extend the Stock’s 25% Rebound?
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Quick Read
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INTU reports Q4 FY2026 after the bell today, absorbing up to $340M in restructuring charges while shares remain down 44% year to date.
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Trading at just 13x forward earnings, a clean guide and credible TurboTax Live and Enterprise Suite roadmap could end INTU's brutal de-rating.
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Live Updates
Intuit Faces a High-Stakes Q4 Earnings Report Tonight After Its 25% Rebound
Live
Intuit reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after today’s closing bell, with investors looking beyond the company’s expected $300-$340 million in restructuring charges.
Shares have rebounded about 24.83% over the past month but remain down 43.62% year to date, leaving tonight’s report as a major test of whether the stock can continue its recovery.
The stock trades at 22x trailing earnings and just 13x forward earnings, while Polymarket traders assign a 95.5% probability of an earnings beat.
Investors will focus on TurboTax Live, Credit Karma monetization, and adoption of Intuit’s Enterprise Suite. A clean fiscal 2027 outlook and credible AI monetization roadmap could reframe the debate around the company’s durability.
Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU | INTU Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal Q4 2026 results after the bell today at 4:00 PM ET. This is the fiscal year-end earnings report, and it lands after a brutal 20.02% Q3 selloff that reshaped the setup around tax pricing, AI monetization, and a sweeping workforce reset.
Momentum Meets Execution Risk
Q3 delivered revenue of $8.558 billion, up 10.37%, and non-GAAP EPS of $12.80, the fourth consecutive beat. Credit Karma grew 15%, Global Business Solutions grew 15%, and QuickBooks Online Accounting rose 22%.
The reaction was ugly anyway. Management flagged a 17% workforce reduction, admitted “we lost on price” among sub-$50,000 DIY filers, and layered in a $300 million Q4 charge. Intuit still authorized an $8 billion buyback and raised the dividend 15% to $1.20 per share.
Consensus and Guidance Setup
| Metric | Q4 FY26 Guide | YoY | FY26 Guide | FY25 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.247B to $4.280B | +11% to 12% | $21.341B to $21.374B | $18.831B |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $3.56 to $3.62 | +29% to 32% | $23.80 to $23.85 | $20.15 |
| GAAP EPS | $0.73 to $0.79 | Restructuring-loaded | $15.79 to $15.84 | N/A |
Growth is expected to slow sequentially as tax season lapses, and GAAP EPS is expected to absorb the restructuring. The non-GAAP EPS bar sits near the $3.58 consensus, leaving little room for lower margins.
What I’m Watching Tonight: AI Monetization and Margin Discipline
Tonight, I’ll be watching TurboTax Live first. Management guided full-year Live revenue growth of 36% to $2.8 billion, or 53% of TurboTax revenue. Any softness in ARPU or Live customer additions would sharpen the assisted-tax bear case.
Investors will also focus on Global Business Solutions. Intuit Enterprise Suite contracts grew 37% quarter over quarter, mid-market is growing north of 30%, and the direct sales team is scaling 30%. Sustained traction here validates the consumption-based pricing pivot.
I will also be tracking Credit Karma monetization, where personal loans, auto insurance, and home loans drove the segment. The consumer money portfolio is guided to 26% full-year growth.
Finally, analysts will be looking at management’s tone on restructuring. CFO commentary should quantify how much of the savings flow to margin versus reinvestment, and whether the Reno and Woodland Hills closures create near-term operational drag. Mailchimp deceleration and the sub-$50,000 DIY repricing round out the risk checklist.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-of Move | 1-Day Move | 1-Week Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY26 | +1.84% | -20.02% | +4.19% | +7.97% |
| Q2 FY26 | +12.69% | +3.7% | +2.45% | +17.64% |
| Q1 FY26 | +7.99% | +4.03% | -1.5% | -4.75% |
| Q4 FY25 | +3.38% | -5.03% | -0.86% | +0.65% |
On average, shares moved 5.55% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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