Jim Cramer Says Netflix Worth the Risk as Wolfe Raises Price Target to $95
Jim Cramer called Netflix a falling knife worth catching, but the chart tells a different story about when that window actually opened and whether retail viewers are hearing advice that already expired.
On Tuesday’s Mad Dash on CNBC, Jim Cramer told viewers that Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) has fallen far enough to be worth a tactical bet, pointing to a fresh price target increase from Wolfe Research and a better second-half release slate. He used the vocabulary traders use when catching something on the way down.
The shares closed at $82.23 that session, up 2.77% on the day. Wolfe raised its target to $95 from $84 while maintaining its existing rating.
The trouble with Cramer’s framing is that Netflix stopped falling weeks ago. The chart shows a stock in recovery, and the tension between his language and the price action is what makes the segment worth pulling apart.
What Cramer Actually Said on Air
Cramer’s central claim was that Netflix has been an unusually broken name. “This is a stock that has never recovered, Jim, from when they made the not just bid, but the deal to acquire Warner Brothers,” he said.
From that starting point, he moved to the trade. “I think this thing is low enough that you can literally, in the hedge fund term, take a shot at it,” he told viewers, framing the decision as tactical rather than long-term.
The imagery went further. “This is like, what is this? This is actually a machete. It’s not a knife,” Cramer said, invoking the old market saying about catching falling blades and arguing the damage was severe enough to make the risk worthwhile.
He credited Wolfe for reading the setup correctly. “They’re taking it right from the book. I really love that,” he said, tying the call to an improved second-half content slate. CNBC’s own reporting attributed Wolfe’s target increase to improving viewer engagement, which is a different rationale than a release calendar.
Falling Knife Stopped Falling Weeks Ago
The trouble is that the price describes a stock in recovery, not one still in freefall. Over the past week, Netflix is up 5.73%. Over the past month, it is up 17.32%.
The twelve-month picture is still ugly. Netflix is down 32.49% over the past year and down 12.3% year to date.
But the shape of that damage matters. The stock traded at $70.09 on July 24 and closed Tuesday at $82.23, so a meaningful chunk of the discount that made a hedge fund shot attractive has already been taken off the table.
Retail chatter has moved with it. Reddit sentiment shifted from very bearish at 12 on July 31 to bullish at 71-72 by August 1, and it has stayed there. A viewer hearing Cramer’s framing on August 25 is being pointed at an entry that is no longer the entry his words imply.
Bull Case, Fairly Stated
The bull case still has merit. A $95 target against an $82.23 close leaves real room. The analyst community broadly agrees, with 29 buys, 7 strong buys, 15 holds, and no sell ratings.
Wolfe’s stated reason, improving viewer engagement, is a durability argument. On the Q2 call, management said view hours grew 2% in the first half of 2026, a slight acceleration versus 1.5% growth in 2025, and that recent price adjustments in the US, Mexico, and Spain were going well.
The advertising business is the second leg. Management is guiding ad revenue to roughly $3 billion in 2026, and Netflix repurchased $4.7 billion of stock in Q2, its largest buyback quarter ever, with approximately $27 billion of remaining authorization.
Cramer framed the setup as a trade, and the language matches: a shot, a hedge fund term, a machete. Investors deciding whether the Warner Brothers overhang is still the dominant story should watch ad revenue disclosures against the roughly $3 billion full-year figure, because engagement is what eventually earns Wolfe’s target and what makes a tactical shot into something a longer-term holder can defend.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth and cyclical stocks that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as cryptocurrencies and penny stocks.
