Netflix Is Down 42% in a Year and the Investor Who Exited in June Just Bought Back In
A seasoned investor who dodged a brutal Netflix slide by exiting in June just bought back in, and his reasoning cuts against everything the bears are saying right now.
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Steve Weiss, founder and managing partner of Short Hills Capital Partners, told viewers of CNBC’s Halftime Report on September 23, 2026 that he had added to his position in Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) after a Wells Fargo downgrade to sell pushed the stock lower. The trade is notable because Weiss had exited the name in June and watched it fall 17% without him before deciding the bad news was priced in.
What sharpens the trade: Weiss is stepping back in while cautioning, “I’m not feeling particularly good about any of the streamers.” He framed the buy as a tactical trade against extreme negativity in the sector.
A Painful Year for Netflix Holders
Netflix trades near $71.49, down 41.75% over the past year from $122.74, and off 23.89% year to date. The five-year return tells a starker story: NFLX is up just 20.3% since September 2021, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) has returned 73.41% over the same span.
Weiss’s June exit looks well timed in hindsight. NFLX closed at $85.85 on June 1 and has slid 15.95% since, including an 8.23% drop in the past week alone after the Wells Fargo call.
Analyst Split: Wells Fargo vs. the Bulls
The bearish case landed hard. Wells Fargo cut Netflix to a sell with a $57 price target amid softening engagement, which would imply more than 25% additional downside. The Barron’s take on the downgrade argued Netflix is losing the streaming wars to Disney. On CNBC’s Halftime, Josh Brown called Netflix his biggest mistake of 2026, citing YouTube’s growing TV viewership and a long stretch without an original show that people are talking about when they turn the TV off.
The bullish counter came from BMO, with an outperform rating and a $135 target. Consensus sits in between, with an Alpha Vantage-aggregated analyst target price of $92.93 and 28 buy and 7 strong buy ratings against 16 holds and zero sells.
Bull Case Weiss Is Renting
Weiss cited 330 million subscribers, margin strength, accelerating ad growth, and improved cash generation as reasons the bad news was already reflected in the share price. Netflix’s own numbers support the operating story. Q2 2026 revenue rose 13.4% year over year to $12.56 billion, operating margin hit 33.4%, and management guided full-year 13% to 14% top-line growth with advertising revenue expected to roughly double to about $3 billion in 2026. The company repurchased $4.7 billion of shares in Q2, its largest buyback quarter ever, with $27.1B of capacity left in its war chest, per the Q2 8-K shareholder letter.
Valuation has compressed alongside the price. Forward P/E now sits at 19, versus a trailing P/E of 23.
Bear Case Weiss Won’t Argue With
Weiss’s structural worry is margins. Live sports and premium entertainment are expensive to acquire and deliver. He pointed to Disney’s 13% price bump to Disney+ as evidence of the pricing defense every streamer is being forced into. Netflix’s own plan is to grow content spend about 10% in 2026, and live programming will consume 5% of the content budget while producing 1% of view hours. Management argues those hours punch above their weight on acquisition and advertising, but they are undeniably premium-cost hours.
What to Watch Next
The next binary event is close. Netflix reports Q3 2026 results after the close on October 20, 2026. Management has guided Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion, operating margin of 33.2%, and diluted EPS of $0.82. With the shares sitting well below their $85.30 200-day moving average, any deviation from that guide, in either direction, will likely settle the bull-bear standoff Weiss is trading around.
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Gerelyn Terzo is the author of dividend investing handbook "Dividend Investing Strategies: How to Have Your Cake & Eat It Too." A veteran financial journalist, she covers agri-finance for outlets like Global AgInvesting and the broader stock market and personal finance for 24/7 Wall Street. She began at CNBC and later helped launch Fox Business in New York. Gerelyn currently resides in Woodland Park, Colorado and dabbles in nature photography as a hobby.
