Nike Has Tumbled 38% in 2026: Is It Time to Switch to Dick’s or Lululemon?
Nike, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Lululemon are all deep in the red while the broader retail sector climbs, and the divergence within athletic goods raises a harder question than which stock to buy next.
Branded athletic footwear and apparel have become the year’s most punishing consumer trade in 2026. The weakness hasn’t spread evenly across retail, which points to a brand-specific problem rather than a broad consumer breakdown. The three biggest names in athletic apparel are all posting double-digit percentage declines while retail overall trades higher.
For context, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 3% year to date (YTD), so retail as a category isn’t the pain point. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 13%, leaving the broad tape well ahead of the athletic segment. The gap is wide enough that the athletic drawdown reads as a category story rather than a market-wide story.
Nike (NYSE:NKE | NKE Price Prediction) stock closed at $38.40 on Friday, down 38% YTD. Also caught in the selloff, Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) stock finished at $139.15, down 29% for 2026. Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) stock closed at $100.61 after a 52% YTD decline, the worst of the three.
Why Nike Broke First
Nike’s slide began with a spring guidance reset that pushed shares to multi-year lows. Chief executive Elliott Hill has moved aggressively on his “Win Now” turnaround plan, and management has conceded the reset will take longer than the market wanted to wait. Investors have voted with their feet, taking Nike stock to levels last seen years ago.
Nike’s most recent earnings report, filed June 30, 2026, showed revenue of $10.97 billion and diluted EPS of $0.72, easily surpassing the $0.13 consensus estimate. However, the profit surge leaned on a $986 million one-time IEEPA tariff recovery that added $0.52 to EPS, while Greater China revenue still fell 12% on a reported basis.
Under the hood, Nike’s business is uneven. Nike Direct revenue declined 7% in the quarter with Digital revenue off by 12%, and Converse revenue collapsed 32%, while wholesale revenue grew 4% and North American revenue grew 3%. Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear together represent approximately half of Nike’s revenue, and both remain the drag on the top line.
Three Businesses, Three Problems
Dick’s Sporting Goods is a domestic multi-brand retailer, and its legacy business held up in Q2 FY2027 with comp sales up 4.9%. Yet, the Foot Locker acquisition dragged consolidated non-GAAP EPS to $3.53, missing consensus, and management trimmed full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $11 to $12 from a prior $13.50 to $14.50. Dick’s stock traded near its 52-week low after the report.
Lululemon is a premium apparel brand facing its own product and brand-heat problems, with Q2 comparable sales down 9% globally and Americas comps off 12%. The company lowered full-year revenue guidance to a range of $10.35 billion to $10.5 billion, and incoming chief executive Heidi O’Neill starts next week to inherit the reset. Lululemon plans to lean on heavier marketing spend, tighter inventory, and reduced SKU density to steady the brand.
All three names received IEEPA tariff refunds this year, boosting reported profitability. Nike’s $986 million recovery added $0.52 to EPS, Dick’s received $59 million in refunds, and Lululemon’s $134.5 million refund plus interest contributed $0.86 to Q2 EPS. Strip the refunds out, and underlying trends look softer across the group.
Scorecard Through Friday’s Close
The ranking through Friday’s close makes the divergence within athletic goods clear.
| Company | Ticker | YTD Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nike | NKE | -38% |
| Dick’s Sporting Goods | DKS | -29% |
| Lululemon | LULU | -52% |
The rotation math makes it difficult to switch to any of these stocks with confidence. A change from Nike into Lululemon this year would have deepened losses meaningfully, while a swap into Dick’s would have improved outcomes only modestly. The problem sits inside branded athletic goods rather than across retail or the consumer at large.
What to Watch Next
Nike will host an investor day on November 16 and 17, where Elliott Hill is expected to detail the next phase after the sunset of “Win Now” actions. Traders can watch for early World Cup contribution to sales and any inflection in Greater China trends. The company also assumes incremental tariff rates stepping higher, which could pressure gross margins into fiscal 2027.
Investors weighing their exposure to the athletic sector should size their positions cautiously given the ongoing promotional environment and the tariff-policy overhang. All three names carry idiosyncratic execution risk on top of a shared category headwind, so concentration in a single brand may compound the drawdown rather than mitigate it. A basket approach, paired with disciplined risk limits, keeps optionality open while the turnarounds hopefully play out.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
