The AI Stock That Could Beat NVIDIA by 2027

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD | AMD Price Prediction) is having the year NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) had in 2023. Shares are up 128.8% year-to-date, Data Center revenue more than doubled to a record $6.7 billion last quarter, and Lisa Su has locked in gigawatt-scale commitments from OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic. NVIDIA, by contrast, is up just 13.63% YTD.

The question I want to answer: can AMD ride this second-half Helios ramp and its 2027 MI500 launch to $750 per share by 2027, decisively out-returning NVIDIA along the way?

Why AMD Shares Stalled in the Last Month

Before I make the bull case, the recent weakness deserves attention. AMD is down 4.74% over the past month even after climbing 2.6% in the past week.

Two things are weighing on the stock. First, a beta of 2.48 means every macro wobble hits this name twice as hard as the market. Second, investors are digesting the reality that Gaming revenue fell 31% year-over-year and U.S. export controls on the MI308 to China still hang over the accelerator story. After a 209% one-year run, some digestion is healthy.

Wall Street Sees 25% Upside. I Think That Undersells 2027

The consensus target is $615.07, backed by 4 strong buys, 39 buys, 11 holds, and zero sells. Our own model is pricier: a base case of $480.90, an optimistic case of $610.14, and a bear case of $377.09, at 0.9 confidence.

Both frameworks look correct for the next 12 months. Both look too conservative for 2027. With 33 upward FY2027 EPS revisions in the last 30 days against only 3 downward, and 80% analyst bullishness, the consensus is still catching up to the story.

Path to $750 Per Share

Reaching $750 from today’s price of $490 would require a gain of 53.1%. With forward EPS of $8.64, a price of $750 implies a forward P/E of 87x. Our base case of $480.90 already implies 85x, meaning the bold target requires only 1.5x of additional multiple expansion. The compression story is what makes this achievable.

FY2027 EPS consensus is $15.51, up from $13.10 ninety days ago. On that number, $750 is just 48x forward earnings. Su told investors AMD expects Data Center segment revenue to “more than double year-over-year in 2027,” and that “customer pull for Helios is very strong and tracking ahead of our initial forecasts.”

Anthropic alone will deploy up to 2 GW of MI450 Series GPUs, on top of 6 GW committed by Meta and 6 GW from OpenAI. The primary risk: any delay to the MI500 ramp or a fresh round of export controls resets the model.

Where AMD Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power

At $490 against $8.64 forward EPS, AMD trades at roughly 57x next-twelve-months earnings. Optically rich. But shares sit only fractionally above the 52-week high of $584.73 on an intraday basis and well off the low of $149.85.

Zoom out and the setup is stark: AMD has returned 7,999% over the last decade. If FY2027 EPS lands anywhere near the $20.25 high estimate, today’s multiple looks cheap in retrospect.

Is $750 Realistic? My Verdict

Getting to $750 by 2027 requires a 53.1% gain from here. It is a stretch, but achievable.

Three things must go right: Helios must ramp on schedule through Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, MI500 customer engagement has to convert to firm orders, and the server CPU business needs to grow the 70%+ Su guided for 2027.

What derails it? A macro-driven multiple contraction across all high-beta semis. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the blueprint for how AMD could reach $750 in 2027.

AMD fits a pattern we’ve seen before: a chipmaker whose data-center franchise inflects years ahead of the consensus model. We reverse-engineered what the biggest tech winners looked like at exactly this stage in a free playbook you can grab here.

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