I Keep Buying Nvidia Over and Over Despite China Concerns, Despite The Tech Selloff
China headlines, a tech selloff, and a $279 billion supply commitment that could go sideways if AI demand fades: here is why one investor keeps adding to Nvidia anyway.
I hit the buy button on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) again last week, and I will almost certainly do it again next month. The China headlines keep coming. The tech sector keeps wobbling. I keep buying. That is conviction. It is what happens when a company you own posts 105.85% year-over-year revenue growth and the market still argues about whether the story is real.
Why I Keep Hitting Buy
The core reason is simple: NVIDIA sells the machines that make artificial intelligence work, and those machines are still supply-constrained. On the last earnings call, management said flatly that “at this moment, we have supply for 70%” of demand, and that the constraint runs “at least through the end of fiscal year 28.” When a company grows revenue triple digits and tells you the ceiling is its own factories, not its customers, I want to own more of it.
Three Receipts That Keep the Buy Alive
First, the profitability. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 75.0% last quarter, operating margin at 60.38%, and net margin at 55.60%. Return on equity is 101.5% and return on invested capital is 92.2%. Those are platform-caliber ratios, well above what a commoditized parts maker posts.
Second, the balance sheet and the buyback. Debt-to-equity sits at 0.073, interest coverage at 503x. Q2 free cash flow was $21.341 billion. The company returned $26.0 billion to shareholders in the quarter, with roughly $99.0 billion left on the repurchase authorization. The token dividend of $0.25 is beside the point. This is a compounder that shrinks its share count.
Third, the trajectory. Analysts now model fiscal 2028 EPS at an average of 15.6826, up from 12.6737 ninety days ago, with 42 upward revisions and zero downward revisions in the last thirty days. Against that, a P/E of 45 stops looking rich.
Why Not AMD, Intel, or Broadcom
I have looked at Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO). Intel is now a partner: NVIDIA disclosed custom co-developed products via NVLink with Intel. AMD and Broadcom compete, but NVIDIA’s data center segment alone did $89.023 billion in a single quarter at 117% growth, and networking inside that number grew 138%. The CUDA install base, purchase orders from “every major hyperscaler, AI cloud, and system OEM” for Vera Rubin, and the $40 billion per gigawatt revenue opportunity Vera Rubin unlocks (up from $25 billion on Blackwell) are what my money is buying. I would rather own the platform than the challenger.
Real Risk: China and the $279 Billion Bet
Two things could hurt. China is already zeroed out: forward guidance excludes any China data center compute revenue, and Hopper into China was less than 1% of data center revenue last quarter. The bigger risk is on the balance sheet. Supply commitments jumped to $279.00 billion, mostly memory for Vera Rubin, and guarantee obligations are capped at $108.5 billion. If AI demand cools before that inventory turns, margins get ugly. Management’s answer is that the compute is fungible and redeployable. With hyperscaler capex projected at nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027, I believe them (and it is also why the power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind those data centers keep showing up in our free AI infrastructure report).
Forward Conviction
Q3 guidance is $108.0 billion with zero China contribution baked in. Jensen Huang put it plainly: “compute is revenue.” As long as that sentence keeps proving out one quarter at a time, my buy button stays warm.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
