A Year Ago, We Called IBM the Next Nvidia. It Lost Money but Still Beat Every Quantum Startup.
Twelve months after a bold quantum computing call promised four-figure returns, the scorecard arrived with a twist: the pick lost money, yet still outperformed every pure-play rival in the sector. Here is what that split verdict reveals about the trade.
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On September 29, 2025, 24/7 Wall St. published This Quantum Computing Stock Could Be the Next Nvidia, an article whose headline promised 1,000% returns and whose pick was IBM (NYSE:IBM | IBM Price Prediction). We pointed out that IBM is profitable, raises its dividend, has worked on quantum for decades, and does not need quantum to survive. We warned pure plays would “fail miserably” if the AI trade cooled off or breakthroughs slipped, and suggested small positions in IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI), with the larger weight on IBM.
One year later, the verdict is mixed. The relative call was right (IBM outperformed peers), while the absolute call was wrong (all positions lost money), yet both conclusions stand simultaneously.
IBM Fell Less Than Every Pure Play
Over the identical window, IBM declined less than IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS). It still lost ground, moving from $272.72 to $220.67, nowhere near the headline promise.
| Stock | Sept. 29, 2025 to Sept. 28, 2026 |
|---|---|
| IBM | Down 19.09% |
| IonQ | Down 30.63% |
| D-Wave | Down 33.7% |
| Rigetti | Down 46.21% |
Profits Did the Work the Thesis Predicted
IBM had a rough second quarter. EPS of $2.93 missed the $2.97 consensus, revenue rose just 1.1% to $17.16B, and a securities fraud inquiry into pipeline disclosures added scrutiny. Chief Executive Arvind Krishna said on the call: “With the portfolio we have and the opportunities ahead, it comes down to execution. That is where we fell short in the second quarter.”
Cash kept flowing. Free cash flow rose 70.36% to $2.54 billion, and the $1.69 quarterly dividend marks a 31st consecutive year of increases. That base funds more than $10 billion in quantum spending over five years, plus Anderon, which secured a $1 billion CHIPS award on September 16. Krishna said, “Quantum computing is no longer decades away. It is upon us and we are investing aggressively.”
The peers show the cash burn our original post highlighted. IonQ grew revenue 286.83% to $80.05 million, revenue the CEO called”the strongest quarter in our company’s history,” yet posted an operating loss of $337.2 million. D-Wave’s $3.08 million in revenue missed the $4.03 million consensus, with cash falling to $546.2 million from $819.3 million. Rigetti booked $5.14 million in revenue, and management admitted: “We acknowledge openly that we are not quite close to quantum advantage.”
Allocation Advice Held Up Better Than the Alternatives
Because every pure play fell further than IBM, the recommended mix of small startup stakes and a larger IBM weight lost less than any startup-heavy portfolio would have. Readers who followed it also collected a rising dividend. The construction limited damage without generating gains. Momentum can shift quickly, however: IonQ gained 12.1% over the past month following a new quantum computing deal reported by Barron’s.
One Marker to Track Through September 2027
IBM expects free cash flow to grow about $1 billion in 2026. Management said a third of the deferred deals closed in the first three weeks of the third quarter and normally expects two-thirds to three-fourths to close within six months. If IBM hits that cash target while keeping its quantum roadmap toward Starling in 2029, the self-funding thesis gets stronger. A miss would weaken the core argument. The lesson from this review: a correct relative judgment can be obscured by a headline the data never supported.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
