One Year Later, Only One Quantum Stock Call Paid Off. Here’s What Changed.
We rated three quantum computing stocks a year ago, and the market handed back a brutal verdict on nearly all of them. Now the landscape has shifted enough that at least one of those calls gets reversed entirely.
One year later, our Sell call on D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) held and our Buy call on IonQ (NYSE:IONQ | IONQ Price Prediction) lost readers money, with IonQ now trading near $44 and D-Wave at about $16. With all three of the key quantum names well below their levels of a year ago, fresh ratings matter more than old ones.
In “Buy, Sell and Hold: D-Wave, IonQ and Rigetti Computing,” we wrote: “For investors in for a decade-long quantum moonshot, IonQ is a buy.” On D-Wave: “Lock in gains now before the annealing bubble bursts.” Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) earned a Hold only for quantum ETF holders and was “a sell for everyone else amid execution hurdles.”
Scorecard: D-Wave Sell Held, IonQ Buy Failed
The original piece was published on a Saturday, so returns run from the following trading session through the latest close, using the same window for all three.
IonQ (Buy): failed. Shares fell 38.96%, from $71.94 to $43.91. A Buy recommendation that lost readers money is, by definition, a failed call.
D-Wave (Sell): held. Shares fell 36%, from $25.67 to $16.43.
Rigetti (Sell for most, Hold via ETF): mostly held. Shares fell 44.52%, the largest drop of the three. The ETF-only Hold still lost ground.
Forbes’ $1 Warning Overshot
The original D-Wave case leaned on Forbes warning of a potential drop to $1. D-Wave trades far above that, backed by $546.2 million in cash and investments. First-half bookings reached $35.5 million versus $2.9 million a year earlier. The call was broadly right, partly for overstated reasons.
Fresh Ratings for the Year Ahead
All three names are speculative, cash-burning, and unprofitable. For investors at or near retirement, any position should represent only a small slice of a portfolio that can absorb significant losses.
IonQ Earns a Buy on Revenue Scale
At $43.91, IonQ is a Buy. Second-quarter revenue hit $80.05 million, up 286.8% year over year and ahead of the $66.42 million consensus. Full-year guidance rose to $280 million to $290 million, and its backlog reached $485 million from $122 million a year earlier. Bank of America also rates it a Buy—one data point rather than a guarantee.
Risks include adjusted EBITDA of negative $120.3 million and integrating the $1.8 billion SkyWater deal. The key markers are full-year revenue inside guidance and 256-qubit commissioning in the first half of 2027. Miss either and the rating drops.
D-Wave Stays a Sell Until Systems Ship
At $16.43, D-Wave is a Sell. Second-quarter revenue of $3.08 million was flat and missed consensus by 23.63%, while operating expenses nearly doubled to $54.98 million. A market cap near $6.2 billion prices in growth that the income statement has yet to show. Management expects fourth-quarter revenue “up significantly” with two systems shipping. Thus, delivery moves D-Wave to Hold.
Rigetti Moves to a Straight Sell
At $15.74, Rigetti is a Sell. Quarterly revenue of $5.14 million supports a market cap near $5.3 billion. CEO Subodh Kulkarni admitted, “We acknowledge openly that we are not quite close to quantum advantage.” The Commerce letter of intent for up to $100 million includes an equity stake, which means dilution. Here’s the marker: lifting 108-qubit two-qubit fidelity to roughly 99.5% this year plus a final Commerce Department deal would earn a Hold.
Last year’s calls got one of two headline ratings right, and the new ratings reward the only company whose revenue is growing.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
