MongoDB Dropped by 25% Over The Last Month: A Large, Influential Wall Street Bank Predicts 70% Gains From Here
A surprise CEO departure sent MongoDB tumbling 25% in a month while its database rivals barely flinched, and now one major Wall Street bank sees a setup that could reward patient investors.
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MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB | MDB Price Prediction) currently trades at $334.68, and the average analyst price target is $456.88. The stock is about 36.5% below where Wall Street thinks it belongs.
MongoDB sells a general-purpose database platform built on Atlas, its fully managed cloud database. Revenue rose 30.5% year over year last quarter to $771.77 million, beating consensus.
Citigroup’s Tyler Radke holds the Street-high $565 target, meaning roughly 68.8% upside.
A Surprise CEO Exit Hit MongoDB Weeks After It Beat and Raised
Meta hired away CEO CJ Desai to lead its new Meta Enterprise Platform. MongoDB shares fell 18.46% in a single session. Former CEO Dev Ittycheria, who ran the company from 2014 to 2025, returned as interim CEO, and the board hired a search firm.
Shares were $446.62 a month ago, sliding to $410.44 before the announcement. The one-month decline stands at 25.06%, while the S&P 500 slipped only 0.49%.
Fundamentals held steady. MongoDB reaffirmed its Q3 and full-year guidance when announcing Desai’s exit. The market is pricing in leadership risk: two CEO changes in under a year and a search with no set end date.
Citi’s $565 Target Rests on Atlas, AI, and Margin Gains
Analysts remain bullish because the business improves. Citi raised its target to $565 from $545 and reiterated its Buy rating after the latest beat-and-raise quarter. Its thesis: Atlas consumption is picking up, AI-native apps built with integrated Vector Search are expanding the addressable market, and operating leverage should grow as cloud usage outpaces sales and marketing spend.
Atlas revenue grew approximately 29% to $565.92 million and exceeded guidance by about 300 basis points. Remaining performance obligations jumped 91% to $1.52 billion. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 24%, up from 15% a year earlier.
Voyage customer count roughly doubled quarter over quarter for the second consecutive quarter. One frontier AI lab moved its chat memory to Atlas and got reads 10x faster than Postgres. Full-year guidance calls for $2.99 billion to $3.03 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $6.39 to $6.58.
The CEO who presented this plan has left. The Investor Day under interim leadership is the first test of whether the strategy holds.
MongoDB Fell Alone While Its Data Peers Held Firm
Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) gained 0.04% over the past month and trades at $328.05, against a $425.19 average target that meaning 29.6% upside. Among 51 analysts, 9 rate it Strong Buy, 35 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell and 1 Strong Sell. That is less meaning upside than MongoDB’s.
Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) rose 13.39% over the month and trades at $268.70, against a $286.26 target that meaning just 6.5% upside. Of 46 analysts, 41 rate it Buy or Strong Buy. After a big run, Wall Street sees little room left.
Elastic (NYSE:ESTC) fell 11.98% over the month and trades at $87.96, against a $110.69 target that meaning 25.8% upside. Coverage is more divided, with 12 Holds among 31 analysts.
MongoDB has the largest implied upside in the group. A single event caused the gap, making it easier to judge than a sector-wide selloff.
A 20% Year-to-Date Loss While the S&P 500 Climbs
At $334.68, MongoDB sits well below the $456.88 consensus target from 41 analysts. The ratings break down this way:
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 24
- Hold: 8
- Strong Sell: 1
The stock is down 20.26% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up 12.26%. It trades at about 70x forward earnings, well under its 52-week high of $473.1.
Leadership Risk Is Priced In, but the Growth Engine Still Runs
MongoDB looks constructive here if Investor Day and the CEO search point to continuity, with Atlas tracking its roughly 27% full-year growth guide and margins holding. In that case, execution closes the gap to consensus. The risks worth monitoring: the search drags on, other executives follow Desai out, or Atlas consumption weakens in the holiday-affected fourth quarter that management noted. At 70x forward earnings, the stock has little margin for a trip.
The setup leans constructive. Guidance is intact, the interim CEO ran the company for over a decade, and the business posted its fastest growth in years. The consensus target looks reachable.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
