Toyota Is Now Within 38,000 Vehicles of Taking GM’s U.S. Sales Crown
Toyota is closing in on GM's U.S. sales crown, and the fuel Americans put in their cars may be the deciding factor. The race between Detroit and Tokyo is tighter than it has been in years, and one product launch…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
General Motors (NYSE:GM | GM Price Prediction) said it sold 670,974 U.S. vehicles in the third quarter, down 5.5%. Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) posted 633,223 through Toyota Motor North America, up 0.6%.
That leaves a quarterly gap of 37,751 vehicles. GM’s year-to-date lead is about 136,000, but the trend now favors Toyota.
Hybrid buyers are deciding this race.
GM’s electric vehicle sales fell 62%. The Chevrolet Equinox EV dropped more than 92%, and Cadillac fell 30%, according to Quartz. Toyota Motor North America said its electrified sales rose 28.5% and made up 57.4% of its U.S. volume.
Hybrids cost less than most battery models and need no charger. GM’s finance chief blamed part of the company’s lost market share on a smaller EV market after consumer incentives were cut.
High Gas Prices Are Steering Shoppers to Toyota
Gasoline averaged $4.43 a gallon in September, up from $3.20 a year earlier. Industry sales fell about 1% to about 4.1 million vehicles. Honda (NYSE:HMC) grew 9.3% on record hybrid volume.
Higher fuel costs explain why fuel-efficient vehicles are selling. Industry economist Charlie Chesbrough forecast Detroit Three market share would fall to “just over 36%”, the lowest on record.
GM pickups still carry the profit.
Duncan Aldred, GM’s North America president, said: “the launch of our next-generation full-size pickup trucks is on track.” The earnings numbers support his profit outlook.
GM North America earned $3.45 billion in second-quarter adjusted EBIT at an 8.6% margin, with U.S. full-size pickup share above 42%. Toyota’s operating income fell 8.8% last quarter as labor, depreciation, and R&D costs rose.
Timing still works against GM. Management expects the truck transition to cost about 35,000 units of fourth-quarter volume, which is roughly the size of the third-quarter gap.
Why GM Stock Outran Toyota Anyway
GM shares rose 30.41% over the past year while Toyota’s fell 4.43%. Sales leadership measures volume, while share price reflects margins, capital returns, and currency.
GM raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $12.00 to $14.00 and bought back $2.8 billion of stock in the first half. Toyota expects full-year operating income to drop 9.7%, even with a weaker yen helping.
Should You Buy or Sell GM Stock
GM looks like the cheaper of the two stocks. At $79.33, it trades at about 6 times forward earnings versus about 11 for Toyota. A $6 billion buyback authorization should lift earnings per share.
Toyota has the better range for expensive fuel and should keep closing the gap. However, tariffs that cost it 1.38 trillion yen last fiscal year are reducing much of the profit from those hybrids.
I would rethink this view if the new Silverado and Sierra, due in showrooms in December, launch late or fail to stop GM’s market share decline.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
