Stanley Druckenmiller’s Brazil Bet Appears To Pay Off After Election Shock. Brazil’s Biggest ETF Soars 13% On The News
An election shock sent Brazil's biggest ETF surging, and one billionaire investor had a massive stake sitting quietly on the books since June. Whether that position survived the months between then and today is the question nobody can answer yet.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ) rose 13.32% in Monday’s regular session and traded at $43.28 as of 11:03 AM ET this morning. Through this morning, the fund is up 17.54% over the past week, 37.53% year to date and 49.68% over the past year, according to WSJ.
Election Upset Lifts US-Listed Brazilian Stocks
Barron’s reported that right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro upset President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s general election, setting off a rally in several US-listed stocks on Monday. Barron’s named MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI | MELI Price Prediction), Nu Holdings, Petrobras, Vale and the Brazil ETF among them. The WSJ reported that Bolsonaro surged past Lula, and AP News reported the two candidates now head to a runoff. Bolsonaro outperformed opinion polls, according to Reuters, which helps explain how sharp the reaction was.
Some of the market had prepared for this outcome. Before the vote, Valor International reported that Verde Asset Management’s Luis Stuhlberger saw “reasonable” 60% odds of a Flávio win, followed by a market shock.
Druckenmiller’s Brazil Stake Is a Snapshot From June
Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office reported two separate Brazil lines in its latest 13F filing with the SEC. Those holdings are as of June 30, 2026, and the filing went in on August 14, 2026.
- Ordinary shares: 3,436,170 shares with a reported value of $118,548,000, or 2.275% of the reported portfolio.
- Call options: 4,228,000 underlying shares with a reported underlying value of $145,866,000.
Duquesne’s holdings as of June provides no basis for assessing Monday’s move. The Brazilian vote was among the most closely watched emerging-market events of the year, and any manager could have shifted several times since June.
The options call for extra care. A 13F leaves out strike prices, expiration dates and premiums paid. The $145,866,000 figure is the market value of the underlying ETF shares as of June 30. Contract cost and current contract value remain undisclosed. Calls reported at the end of June may have been closed or may have expired since then.
Brazil Held Flat While the Rest of Latin America Shrank
Both Brazil lines showed zero change in share count on the ordinary shares and zero change on the calls compared with the prior quarter. Reported values fell by $13,367,000 on the common line and $16,447,000 on the call line. Because no shares changed hands, those declines came entirely from the ETF’s price during the quarter, with the share count unchanged.
In the same quarter, Duquesne reduced almost all of its other Latin American holdings:
- Cut YPF (NYSE:YPF) by 97,065 shares
- Trimmed the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEARCA:ARGT) by 58,600 shares
- Cut Mexican grocery chain BBB Foods (NYSE:TBBB) by 207,469 shares
- Sold its entire MercadoLibre position of 2,766 shares
- Opened a new 59,500-share stake in Grupo Financiero Galicia, worth at $2,977,000
At the time of its last disclosure, Duquesne was holding Brazil steady while pulling money out of the rest of the region. A 13F records positions without stating reasons.
The MercadoLibre sale makes for awkward timing, since the stock appears on Barron’s list of names rallying today. That position was small next to the Brazil stake.
Keeping the Position Size in Perspective
The Brazil common line made up 2.275% of the reported portfolio. Natera, the largest holding, made up 16.598%, with a reported value of $864,923,000. In the fund’s holdings as of May 31, 2026, the largest weights went to miner Vale, Nu Holdings, Itau Unibanco and two classes of Petrobras shares. That gives the ETF heavy exposure to Brazilian banks, commodities and energy.
What the November Filing Will and Won’t Show
The next 13F covers the quarter ending September 30 and is due around mid-November. It will show how Duquesne was holdings going into the vote, with trades made during or after it left for later filings. The first filing that could reflect post-election trading arrives in February. Monday’s move is real, the filing reflects June, and nobody can yet see what happened in between.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
AJ spent 10 years writing about financial markets at The Motley Fool. His coverage centers on technology stocks and the broader macroeconomic trends, from interest rates to geopolitics, that shape where markets are headed next. AJ is drawn to the stories where big-picture economics and individual companies collide.
