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Nu Holdings Spikes 12% as Brazil Election Upset Drives Rally in Brazilian Assets; Robinhood Edges Higher, SoFi Stays Put

A surprise first-round result in Brazil's presidential election sent one Latin American digital bank surging while its U.S. fintech rivals barely flinched, and the outcome of next month's runoff vote could flip the trade entirely.

By David Moadel
Published October 5, 2026, 8:45am ET · 3 min read

Market Movers desk. Editor: David Moadel.

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A first-round upset in Brazil’s presidential election is lifting a Latin American digital bank far more than its U.S. fintech counterparts. Nu Holdings (NYSE:NU | NU Price Prediction) stock is up 12% to $15.09 in early trading, rising alongside a broad rally in U.S.-listed Brazilian shares.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) stock is up 0.9%, a modest gain next to the Brazilian rally. SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock is down 0.1%, leaving the two U.S. trading and banking platforms close to unchanged. That gap shows the buying is concentrated in Brazil-linked names, with U.S. fintech largely sitting it out.

At the same time, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is essentially unmoved, so the broad market is providing no boost for Nu Holdings stock. For financial-sector context, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE ARCA:XLF) is up 0.26% to $53.62.

NU price target

Bolsonaro Upset Sparks a Rally in Brazilian Assets

U.S.-listed shares of Brazilian companies rallied after right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro outperformed polls in the first round of the country’s presidential election. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whom polls had expected to come out on top. Both candidates now head to a runoff later this month, and Nu Holdings shares are trading in step with the broader Brazilian group.

Nu Holdings runs the Nubank brand, and Brazil is the company’s largest market. The company reported almost 118 million of its 139 million customers in Brazil on its Q2 2026 earnings call, which ties Nu Holdings stock directly to the country’s political outcomes.

Brazil Exposure Separates Nu Holdings From U.S. Fintech

Robinhood and SoFi lack similar Brazil exposure, and both are hovering near flat. Robinhood’s recent headlines center on U.S. market access, including a plan to allow 24-hour weekend trading of U.S. stocks.

Even after the rally, Nu Holdings stock is in the red on a year-to-date basis. The prior week, the company disclosed that it wasn’t pursuing an acquisition of Monzo, a privately held British digital bank.

Nu Holdings’ operating results give the rally some support. The company posted Q2 revenue of $5.51 billion, up 55.8% year over year, and began banking operations in Mexico on August 6. However, the company faces an effective combined Brazilian tax rate of 42.5%, a reminder that government policy cuts both ways for Nu Holdings.

Runoff Vote Leaves the Rally Unsettled

The bull case for Nu Holdings rests on a first-round result widely read as business-friendly in the company’s largest market. Timing is the problem, because the runoff later this month may still change the outcome. A Lula victory could unwind part of the gain.

Asset quality adds a second variable for Nu Holdings, with Stage 3 loan exposures (those classified as credit-impaired) at 8.3% in its Q2 report. On the company’s August 13 earnings call, Nu Holdings CEO David Vélez stated, “Our base assumption when we underwrite a loan is that the future will be worse than the past.” Shareholders can watch for the runoff result as the next major test for Nu Holdings stock.

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David Moadel

David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.

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