AbbVie Rewarded Patient Investors but Punished Those Who Bought on Good News
AbbVie investors who bought on headline-grabbing drug approvals consistently trailed those who bought during fear and uncertainty. The calendar of milestones reveals a counterintuitive pattern about when good news becomes a trap.
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Every recent milestone entry point in AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV | ABBV Price Prediction) made money. What separates them is the size of the gain. In 2019, the better entry came during a period of pessimism. Buying on the Rinvoq approval, after the Allergan selloff, beat buying on the earlier Skyrizi approval. The good news turned out to be the more expensive time to buy.
Each return shown below is calculated from the milestone’s closing price to the $265.76 close on October 5, 2026. Returns are adjusted for splits and dividends; total return is the full gain measured on that basis.
Spinoff Day Started the Hunt for Humira’s Successor
AbbVie began trading on its own on January 2, 2013, after separating from Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT). It launched with one main product, Humira, and its story since then has been about finding a replacement for Humira.
- Adjusted entry price: $20.38
- $1,000 is now worth: $13,038.50
- Total return: 1,203.85%
Skyrizi’s Approval Was Good News at a Higher Price
Skyrizi, approved April 23, 2019, was the first immunology drug built to succeed Humira. Second-quarter 2026 sales reached $5.51 billion, up 24.4%.
- Adjusted entry price: $58.17
- $1,000 is now worth: $4,568.60
- Total return: 356.86%
Rinvoq Arrived After the Allergan Selloff
Rinvoq, approved August 16, 2019, was the second Humira replacement. Between the two approvals, AbbVie announced its $63 billion Allergan deal and the stock fell, creating the best entry of 2019. Second-quarter 2026 Rinvoq sales were $2.53 billion, up 24.5%.
- Adjusted entry price: $48.37
- $1,000 is now worth: $5,493.90
- Total return: 449.39%
Allergan Closed Ahead of the Revenue Cliff
The Allergan deal closed May 8, 2020, moving AbbVie into aesthetics and neuroscience before Humira sales declined. Neuroscience revenue grew 20.3% to $3.23 billion in the second quarter of 2026.
- Adjusted entry price: $65.74
- $1,000 is now worth: $4,042.59
- Total return: 304.26%
First U.S. Humira Biosimilar Marked the Cliff’s Arrival
The first U.S. Humira biosimilar reached the market January 31, 2023. Humira sales fell 35.9% to $756 million in the second quarter of 2026.
- Adjusted entry price: $130.47
- $1,000 is now worth: $2,036.94
- Total return: 103.69%
ImmunoGen Added an Oncology Pipeline
The ImmunoGen acquisition, completed February 12, 2024, added cancer drugs, while Imbruvica, AbbVie’s older cancer drug, declined 29.4% in second-quarter 2026.
- Adjusted entry price: $158.99
- $1,000 is now worth: $1,671.50
- Total return: 67.15%
AbbVie Beat the S&P 500 Over Every Trailing Window
AbbVie versus the price-only SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY):
| AbbVie | SPY | |
| Year to date | 19.1% | 13.6% |
| One year | 17.2% | 15.8% |
| Five years | 192.3% | 78.2% |
| Ten years | 536.9% | 260.3% |
Milestone Headlines Report Moves That Have Already Been Made
The Rinvoq buyer held the stock for about four months less than the Skyrizi buyer yet earned more. Entry price mattered more than holding period. Watch the rollout of an injectable form of Skyrizi for Crohn’s disease, which management expects to boost sales beginning in early 2027. Also watch the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $13.76 to $13.96.
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Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.
Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community.
Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.
Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions.
