Options Traders Give Nvidia a 50% Chance of Hitting $6 Trillion This Month
Options traders are betting on a market milestone no company has ever reached, and the window closes at the end of October. A single catalyst could tip the scales either way.
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No company has ever been worth $6 trillion, yet a CNBC options-pricing analysis put the odds of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) reaching that level by the end of October at about 50%. The same pricing gave it about 13% odds of crossing within the week of Oct. 5.
Option delta estimates the probability that an option finishes in the money, although that estimate changes as the stock moves.
The odds were based on the Friday, Oct. 2 close of $233.95. NVIDIA then rose 2.12% on Oct. 5 to a record $238.90, so the live odds are slightly better than the quoted figures.
How Small the Required Move Really Is
$6 trillion is at roughly $249 a share on about 24.1 billion shares outstanding. NVIDIA needs about another 4% from about $5.77 trillion.
The stock gained 4.39% in the week ending Oct. 5, so ordinary volatility could close the gap. That is why traders price the milestone near even.
The Oct. 30 $250 call has a delta of 0.29093, which points to lower odds that NVIDIA finishes October above the line. The headline odds most likely measure the chance of touching the threshold at some point before then.
Why Traders Grew More Optimistic
NVIDIA’s board added $150 billion to its buyback on Sept. 28, 2026, leaving $235 billion authorized. A buyback that size reduces the share count gradually over years.
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore restored NVIDIA as his top chip pick on Oct. 2, 2026, with a $300 target, citing “a very undemanding valuation.” BNP Paribas lifted its target to $345 from $285.
Foxconn’s third-quarter revenue rose 47% on strong AI demand, a signal from the supply chain separate from NVIDIA’s guidance.
A Record High That Still Trails the Chip Sector
NVIDIA is up 28.4% year to date, while investingLive noted that the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) is up about 96%.
NVIDIA’s fiscal second-quarter revenue rose 105.85% to $96.221 billion, while the stock fell behind.
That backs up Moore’s view. NVIDIA trades at about 48x trailing earnings, but quarterly net income rose 125.9%, and third-quarter revenue guidance is $108.0 billion. With profits growing that fast, the trailing multiple exaggerates what you pay for future earnings.
What Decides the $6 Trillion Race Before Oct. 30
The business is growing faster than the stock, and because NVIDIA has fallen behind the sector, there is less excess to work off if AI spending slows. Options-implied odds reflect holdings more than fundamentals. The chipmakers get the headlines, but the power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind the data centers ride the same wave, and we featured seven of them in a free report.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) is scheduled to report before the open on Oct. 15, 2026, giving an early read on foundry demand. NVIDIA’s own report is scheduled for Nov. 18, 2026, after the October window. Neither company has confirmed its date.
A close above roughly $249, on or before Oct. 30, would put NVIDIA past the milestone. A close below $233.95 would mean the odds have turned against it.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
