Up 28% in 2026, NVIDIA Just Tapped an All-Time High: Is the Rally Overextended or Just Getting Started?

A key Taiwanese supplier’s best month ever has handed NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) a fresh artificial intelligence (AI) demand signal, and the chip designer’s record rally now has to answer whether orders can keep outpacing price. In afternoon trading, NVIDIA stock is up 2% to $238.30, a level that marks an all-time high. Moreover, shares of NVIDIA are up 28% year to date.

Also climbing is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) stock, up 3% to $486.71, a reminder that the foundry builds NVIDIA’s leading-edge chips. At the same time, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) stock is rising 2% to $362.52, extending the advance into the custom AI accelerator and networking slice of the market.

The broader chip basket is lagging that trio, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) practically unchanged. Meanwhile, the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is up 0.8%, a sign that large-cap tech is firm while the semiconductor fund stalls.

What Foxconn’s Record Month Says About NVIDIA

Foxconn, the Taiwanese contract manufacturer also known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, reported September revenue of $36.5 billion, its strongest month on record. Management attributed significant growth in Foxconn’s Cloud and Networking Products business to strong pull-in momentum for AI products. Looking ahead, Foxconn expects its AI operations to keep growing in the fourth quarter.

That matters for NVIDIA because Foxconn builds the rack-scale systems where NVIDIA’s accelerated-computing platforms are deployed and handles power delivery, liquid cooling and networking integration for them (we covered seven of these infrastructure suppliers, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here). As a result, Foxconn’s monthly revenue works as an outside read on demand for NVIDIA-based infrastructure. The supplier also warned that a volatile global political and economic environment remains a risk.

Why NVIDIA Stock May Have Further to Run

Demand data supports the bullish reading of NVIDIA stock. Foxconn’s record month offers an independent signal on orders for the systems NVIDIA’s chips sit inside, while Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom shares are both higher alongside NVIDIA stock.

Recent results at NVIDIA support that view. The company reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year, and guided its third-quarter revenue to $108 billion. NVIDIA’s supply commitments also soared to $279 billion, largely tied to memory for Vera Rubin production.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management made a similar argument on CNBC’s Fast Money on September 28, stating, “Even though the multiple of Nvidia will probably continue to go down, I think the stock will continue to rise.” That view casts earnings growth as the engine that can lift NVIDIA shares even as the valuation multiple contracts.

Why NVIDIA Stock May Be Stretched

A record price for NVIDIA stock is where the cautious reading begins, since fresh highs can invite profit taking. Semiconductor stocks as a group are holding back as well, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF flat while NVIDIA stock rises.

David Bahnsen of the Bahnsen Group framed the broader AI spending risk on Bloomberg Businessweek on September 30, stating, “Every capex intensive boom in history that did work out went through a period where a whole lot of capital got set on fire before it worked out. We have not yet got to that stage.” Bahnsen’s warning reaches NVIDIA through the company’s customers, since any slowdown in AI capital spending could eventually hit chip suppliers.

However, NVIDIA stock’s year-to-date performance clouds the overextended reading. The 28% gain in NVIDIA stock year to date trails the 96% advance in the iShares Semiconductor ETF over the same stretch. That gap positions NVIDIA stock as a leader that’s still catching up to its own sector.

What to Watch Next

Traders can watch for whether the iShares Semiconductor ETF starts following NVIDIA stock higher, which would ease concern about a leader climbing alone. A second strong month from Foxconn would also reinforce the demand case behind NVIDIA stock’s record.

Shareholders could look for signs that NVIDIA’s third-quarter results land in line with the company’s $108 billion revenue guidance. In the meantime, NVDA stock has plenty of headroom when compared to the SOXX semiconductor ETF on a year-to-date basis.

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