Wells Fargo Just Put a $1,000 Price Target on Meta
A Wells Fargo analyst just slapped the highest price target on Meta that anyone is tracking, yet his own model expects the stock to have a rough year before that target becomes plausible. Understanding why that tension exists changes how…
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Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) closed at $738.88 after Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) analyst Ken Gawrelski raised his price target to $1,000, implying about 35% upside. The average target across 63 analysts is $794.96, or about 7.6% above the share price.
Shares slipped 0.41% that session. The target was raised from $796, with an Overweight rating maintained, and it is now the highest currently tracked target for the stock.
The note itself explains why. The same model that produced $1,000 also expects Meta’s 2027 earnings to come in below consensus.
The highest target on the stock rests on a year the analyst expects to be weak, so its value depends on whether the gains he sees in 2028 arrive after a soft 2027.
Why Muse Sits at the Center of the $1,000 Target
Gawrelski wrote that “Investor enthusiasm around Meta’s Muse product cycle is warranted.” Muse is the AI agent Meta launched in September to complete tasks on a user’s behalf.
For an ad company, every new place people spend time can carry ads, transaction fees, or subscriptions. Meta already reaches 3.60 billion people daily, so it can put Muse in front of users without paying for distribution.
One estimate puts Muse revenue at over $27 billion by 2030, with about $23 billion from transactions and $4.5 billion from subscriptions. So far, the product has 6.6 million downloads and 1.8 million daily users.
Those figures are small next to the 2030 estimate, and although Meta’s reach gives it an advantage few companies have, usage has to climb sharply before that revenue is likely.
A Bullish Note That Expects a Weak 2027
Gawrelski expects the third-quarter call to moderate hopes for meaningful Muse revenue in 2027. He sees 2027 operating expenses of $210 billion to $215 billion, while the Street sits near $202 billion.
He calls 2027 earnings per share of $31 to $32 realistic, while consensus is near $34. He models $31.18 for 2027 and $40.02 for 2028.
In short, 2027 is the bottom, and 2028 is the return. Meta trades at about 24 times its 2027 estimate and about 18 times its 2028 figure.
Evaluating a stock on earnings two years out works only if spending peaks on schedule and Muse revenue arrives on time. If either slips by a year, you hold the bottom longer.
What Meta Has Guided Versus What the Analyst Assumes
Meta’s guidance covers 2026 only, with total expenses of $165 billion to $169 billion and capital spending of $130 billion to $145 billion. The analyst expects 2027 expenses to fall within that range.
The second quarter shows the mechanism. Revenue rose 28% to $60.80 billion, while earnings per share fell 13% to $6.18 as capital spending reached $31.08 billion.
Spending is being pulled forward ahead of the revenue it should produce. Depreciation and data center costs show up now, but returns from agents and enterprise sales come later.
Shares rose 19.88% over the past month. That gain likely reflects some of the enthusiasm around Muse.
Three Ways the $1,000 Case Could Break
The first test is legal costs, because a third-quarter charge well above $10 billion, or new losses in youth-related trials, would compound the bottom and push the recovery further out.
The second test is spending guidance, because if Meta guides 2027 above the analyst’s $210 billion to $215 billion, even the bearish half of the note would prove too generous and earnings estimates would likely fall further.
The third test is Muse engagement. If daily users stay near 1.8 million for several quarters, the 2030 revenue estimate has little support.
The next earnings report, expected in late October, tests the first two directly. A clean result on both would leave Muse adoption as the main open question.
What Investors Should Watch Before Meta’s Next Earnings Report
Ad revenue grew 27% last quarter on 14% more impressions and 12% higher prices per ad, so AI is already improving how Meta sells existing ad space.
The bearish parts of this note are already built into the model that produced $1,000. At about 18 times the 2028 estimate, the stock’s multiple sits alongside a business growing revenue near 28%.
Treat $1,000 as one analyst’s estimate of evaluating under specific assumptions. The $794.96 average is the more serious marker.
The stock has had a sharp one-month run, and the upcoming report could reset expectations. Investors researching the stock can compare Meta’s 2027 spending guidance in that report against the analyst’s assumptions.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
