Applied Digital Has Fallen Hard Over 1 Year: One Lead Analyst Says It’s Going to Nearly Triple in Price
Applied Digital has shed more than half its value from its peak, yet analysts keep piling on buy ratings with targets that sit above where the stock was trading at its best. One lead analyst believes the selloff created a…
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Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) currently trades at $23.85, while analysts’ average price target stands at $65.37. That gap implies 174% upside.
Applied Digital builds and rents AI data center campuses to hyperscalers. It has roughly 1.41 GW of critical IT load rents across five campuses and about $36B in contracted lease revenue over initial 15-year terms. A legacy segment hosts 286 megawatts of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) mining in North Dakota.
The most bullish call comes from Lake Street Capital Markets. Lead analyst Rob Brown rates the shares Buy with a Street-high $90.00 target, which implies 277% upside. Even the consensus target sits far beyond a 40% gap, so the bull case deserves a hard look.
A Slide of Nearly 53% Leaves Applied Digital Stranded Below Its Targets
The decline came as the company leaned on debt-funded growth. Shares are down 52.99% from a 52-week high of $50.73. The stock lost 15.75% over the past month.
The latest quarterly report beat adjusted expectations. Revenue reached $341.9 million, and adjusted loss of -$0.01 per share exceeded the -$0.3023 estimate. GAAP net loss was $221 million, or $0.76 per share, including $65.4 million of stock-based compensation and a $67.5 million non-cash investment loss. Debt sits near $6.4 billion against $1.6 billion of equity. Capex hit $2.07B in the quarter.
Estimates also slid. Over 60 days, the average fiscal 2028 EPS forecast moved from 0.1150 to -0.4835.
Lake Street’s $90 Thesis Rests on Power and Pricing
Lake Street’s case rests on three pillars: monetizing HPC capacity with tier-one hyperscalers, a power pipeline that brings dense AI compute online ahead of rivals stuck in grid queues, and margin expansion as revenue shifts from crypto hosting toward AI infrastructure leasing. HPC hosting already generates a reported 89% NOI margin.
Management has given analysts specific targets. The company expects to place over 600 megawatts into service over the next 12 months, compared with 250 megawatts over the past 12. It also expects about 250 megawatts of expansion rents by calendar year end at what it called “definitely north of 15% plus increases on the lease rate.” Louisiana and Alabama revenue should begin in the first half of calendar 2027, and the long-term goal is 3.5 to 4 gigawatts by the end of calendar 2030.
Funding costs are falling too. The latest notes carry a 7% coupon, down from 9.25% on earlier notes.
Coverage leans bullish: two Strong Buy, 11 Buy, and two Hold ratings across 15 analysts. The consensus target sits above the stock’s 52-week high, and one analyst cut fiscal 2028 EPS estimates over the trailing 30 days.
Every AI Infrastructure Peer Fell This Month, Most by More
Applied Digital held up better than its three closest rivals over the past month in a broader group selloff.
IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) fell 23.91% in a month and 40.57% over a year. At $35.71 against a $78.14 target, implied upside is 118.82%. Ratings include 13 Buy and five Hold alongside two Strong Buy calls. That upside trails Applied Digital’s.
Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR) dropped 27.07% in a month. At $13.50 versus a $30.48 target, it implies 125.78% upside, with 15 Buy and two Hold ratings alongside five Strong Buy calls.
TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF) is up 10.98% over a year but lost 23.57% in a month. At $13.65 versus a $33.48 target, implied upside is 145.27%. Its 18 Buy and one Hold ratings, alongside five Strong Buy calls, make the most bullish mix in the group.
Applied Digital carries the largest implied upside of the four. Analysts see it as the most mispriced name in the space, and those targets are estimates with no guarantee attached.
Applied Digital Lags the S&P 500 by Double Digits
At $23.85, the stock is 2.73% lower year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 13.5%. Over one year, the index posted a 14.98% gain.
The $65.37 consensus from 15 analysts implies 174% upside. A beta of 6.0 means the path will be volatile in either direction.
Contracts Make the Case, but the Balance Sheet Sets the Pace
Applied Digital’s bull case improves if it delivers those 600-plus megawatts on schedule, signs expansion rents at premium rates, and finances campuses on investment-grade terms. The thesis weakens if construction slips, capital raises dilute shareholders, or hyperscaler concentration becomes a liability.
The $36 billion contracted base and falling borrowing costs support recovery, though $90 requires near-flawless execution. The consensus target looks more realistic as a multi-year destination (we highlighted seven of the picks-and-shovels names behind this AI data-center expansion, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here).
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
