CoreWeave’s Debt is Substantiated By Clear Demand So I Keep Adding
CoreWeave carries $35.6 billion in debt, negative free cash flow, and a stock down sharply from its highs, yet one investor keeps buying more shares after every dip. Here is the case that makes the numbers look completely different.
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My CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) position grew again, and today’s selloff made me want to buy more. The stock closed at $81.58, down 7.77% on the day, after a report on OpenAI revenue pulled AI infrastructure stocks lower. My buying continues because CoreWeave owns the rarest asset in technology: AI computing capacity that is already running, already under contract and getting more expensive.
Pricing Power That Makes the Debt Work
A company carrying heavy debt needs pricing power to service it, and CoreWeave just showed it has plenty. In July, management pushed through an approximately 25% increase across SKUs. New contracts carry contribution margins 5 to 10 percentage points above those added in recent quarters. The CFO said “the increase in the value of output of the CoreWeave Cloud has outpaced the value of the input increases that we are currently experiencing in the supply chain.” When a company can raise prices like that, creditors can see the spending turning into high-margin revenue.
Three Receipts I Keep Rereading
Backlog. Revenue backlog reached $104 billion, up 46% year-over-year. That figure leaves out the over $25 billion of net new customer commitments added early in the third quarter. Customer delivery has already started on more than 50% of the backlog.
Growth. Second-quarter revenue hit $2.575 billion, up 112.3%. Management expects full-year revenue of $12.4 to $13.2 billion and a year-end annualized run rate of $18.5 to $19.5 billion.
Cash. Operating cash flow came in at $679 million, compared with negative $251 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.510 billion at a 59% margin. CoreWeave also cut its weighted average cost of debt by almost 300 basis points, worth about $1.1 billion in annualized interest savings.
Why I Pass on Oracle and NVIDIA
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL | ORCL Price Prediction) follows the similar strategy: AI data centers funded with debt. Its latest quarter showed revenue growth of 29.6% and negative free cash flow of $5.40 billion, and interest expense rose 55% to $1.4 billion. If I take on expansion risk either way, I want CoreWeave’s 112.3% growth.
This is a great business, but NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades at 46 times earnings with a market cap of about $5.57 trillion. CoreWeave grows faster than NVIDIA’s 105.8% and is worth near $37.4 billion. NVIDIA itself put $2B into CoreWeave stock.
A Debt Load That Could Still Hurt Me
CoreWeave’s debt has reached $35.6 billion. Interest expense rose to $640M from $267M a year ago, and third-quarter guidance calls for $860 to $940 million. Free cash flow sat at -$5.743B, and debt-to-equity is 8.94. Big customers like Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and OpenAI make up a large share of the backlog, and a securities fraud class action is still pending. The stock is down 41.72% over the past year.
I accept that risk because management says each deployment is designed to fully repay the asset-level debt used to build it. CoreWeave also remains “largely sold out of prior generations of NVIDIA GPUs”, and it recently signed an A100 contract that runs into 2029. Older hardware is still making money.
Power Pipeline That Keeps Me Buying
Contracted power has reached 4.2 gigawatts, against 1.5 gigawatts active today, and the company targets at least 8 gigawatts by 2030. Management says “We expect demand to meaningfully exceed supply for years.” All of that compute has to be powered, cooled, and networked by somebody, which is why we pulled together seven of the suppliers behind the AI expansion in a free report here. Customers keep paying more for every GPU CoreWeave switches on, and I will keep paying for more shares.
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