SpaceX reports Q3 earnings after the bell today, marking the end of the company’s second quarter as a public company.
Analysts expect revenue of $13.02 billion, representing a massive 66.7% sequential increase from $7.814 billion in the second quarter. Consensus also calls for earnings of $0.1682 per share, potentially marking a return to profitability as AI infrastructure spending reaches record levels.
Shares have fallen 10.16% over the past week, following a 34.99% surge in the week after the company’s earnings report last quarter.
With $93.52 billion in cash, SPCX has substantial resources to fund its aggressive expansion. However, its $1.93 trillion market capitalization represents more than 42 times projected 2026 revenue of $45.34 billion.
Strong bookings growth, improving profitability, and encouraging updates on cloud expansion and Cursor timing could help justify that premium valuation. Any signs of slowing demand or delayed returns on capital spending could put renewed pressure on the stock.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results today slightly after 4:00 PM ET, after the market closes. Tonight marks the company’s second report as a public company and tests whether SpaceX’s AI and Starlink growth can support a market cap of about $1.93 trillion.
Last quarter, in its first quarter as a public company, SpaceX posted revenue of $7.814 billion, ahead of the $6.819 billion estimate, on 92% year-over-year growth. The loss of -$0.09 per share came in well ahead of the -$0.2893 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion.
SpaceX’s spending ran just as hot. Capex reached $18.37 billion, including $15.83 billion for AI compute, and management said the next two quarters would look similar.
| Metric | Q3 2026 Estimate | Change vs. Q2 2026 | FY 2026 Estimate | FY 2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.02B | +66.7% | $45.34B | $117.08B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $0.17 | From -$0.09 | $0.10 | $2.12 |
The quarterly EPS estimate has risen from -$0.09 90 days ago, but the range for tonight runs from -$0.11 to $0.43. The FY 2027 revenue estimate points to 158.2% growth, so analysts are anticipating a very steep ramp.
First, tonight I’m going to be watching cloud revenue. SpaceX signed an additional $6.7 billion of cloud-services revenue over six months starting in October, and its Google and Anthropic deals were set to start ramping later in the quarter or in October. Investors will want to see if management still stands by its past prediction that “the $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark.”
Second, compute capacity. Capacity stood at 1.4 gigawatts against a year-end target of over 2 gigawatts. I want to see how much revenue each new gigawatt brings in.
Third, Cursor. The $60 billion deal was scheduled to close in the third quarter, so we may get an initial read on revenue contribution and integration costs.
Fourth, Starlink pricing. ARPU was $66, flat from the prior quarter but down from $85 a year earlier. Enterprise and government revenue grew 108%, so I’ll check whether that mix shift keeps offsetting the cheaper consumer plans.
Finally, Starship. Flight 14 was set to be the first to carry V3 Starlink satellites to operational orbit, and management called the heat shield problem “solved.”
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Earnings-Day Move | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +68.89% | -13.61% | +6.14% | +34.99% | +36.65% |
Last quarter, shares moved 34.99% within seven days following the earnings release. Tonight will be the company’s second earnings report as a public company.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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