That wraps up our initial coverage of SpaceX’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!
SpaceX reported $19.59 billion in capital expenditures during the third quarter, up from $6.88 billion a year earlier, as the company accelerates its massive AI infrastructure expansion.
The Super Intelligence segment accounted for $16.44 billion of that spending, or roughly 84% of total capital expenditures. For the first nine months of 2026, companywide capital expenditures reached an extraordinary $48.07 billion.
The spending comes as SpaceX’s AI business is growing rapidly, with SI revenue reaching $7.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA approaching $5 billion during the quarter.
SpaceX also ended September with $51.29 billion in cash and another $38.56 billion in marketable securities.
The big question for investors is whether this enormous investment cycle can generate enough sustainable cash flow to justify the spending. SpaceX’s improving operating profitability is encouraging, but it still has high capital requirements.
SpaceX’s Starlink business continues to expand rapidly, reaching 13.6 million consumer subscribers at the end of September, up from 12 million just three months earlier and 7.2 million a year ago.
The company’s Connectivity segment generated $5.25 billion in quarterly revenue, representing 69% year-over-year growth. Enterprise and government revenue was particularly strong, jumping 91% from the prior year.
Profitability is improving alongside that growth. Connectivity operating income nearly doubled to $2.37 billion, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 82% to $3.5 billion.
Starlink also expanded its aviation footprint to more than 3,800 equipped aircraft. With subscriber growth, enterprise adoption, and improving profitability all moving higher, Connectivity remains an important source of earnings for SpaceX as it invests heavily in AI infrastructure.
SpaceX’s Super Intelligence (SI) business delivered an extraordinary quarter, with revenue soaring 830% year over year to $7.56 billion, up from just $813 million a year earlier. Revenue also nearly tripled from the second quarter’s $2.56 billion.
The explosive growth was driven by new cloud services agreements, the acquisition of Cursor, and growing adoption of Grok across enterprise customers and consumers.
Even more importantly, the segment swung to $431 million in operating profit, compared with a $1.72 billion operating loss a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA reached nearly $5 billion, while nameplate computing capacity expanded to 1.7 gigawatts.
For investors, the big takeaway is that SpaceX’s AI investments are beginning to translate into substantial revenue and improving profitability, although the company continues to spend aggressively on infrastructure.
SpaceX (SPCX) just reported third-quarter earnings, with shares initially up 2% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
Operational Highlights:
Quick Read:
At 84x sales and 69x forward earnings, SpaceX goes into tonight's report needing the 91.9% year-over-year revenue growth to keep compounding. The stock sits at $147.13, 35% below its 52-week high of $225.64, while the consensus target of $222.71 implies analysts still expect that gap to close.
Gross margin has climbed back to 55.3% in Q2 2026, the best of the four quarters shown, and operating margin has narrowed to just -1.8% from -41.4% a quarter earlier. With consensus calling for a return to profit tonight, that operating line is the number that decides whether the scaling story holds.
Tonight marks only the second earnings report since SpaceX went public, and it has to justify a $1.9 trillion market cap on a single quarter's execution. The company has beaten in its one reporting quarter so far, so tonight is where the Starlink and launch cadence story either compounds or stalls.
SpaceX's debut quarter as a public company showed a loss that beat expectations and revenue that exceeded expectations, with the Starlink and launch ramp scaling quickly. That sets a high bar for tonight, where consensus is looking for a return to profitability on a steep sequential revenue jump.
next print Tue, Oct 20
Options into tonight are priced for a wide swing, with at-the-money implied volatility at 120.5% on the $149 strike expiring Oct. 21. The 1.01 put/call ratio is dead even, which reads as hedged caution and as a balanced book with both sides evenly positioned. The biggest open-interest cluster sits at the $150 call strike, the level traders are watching most closely after the earnings report.
Market participants see SpaceX's session today as roughly even odds, with the probability of finishing higher sitting just under 50% going into tonight's Q3 earnings report. That is unusually noncommittal for a $1.9 trillion company, and it signals little consensus on how the second earnings report since the IPO will land.
SpaceX goes into tonight's earnings report sitting just under its 50-day average at 148.62, with 147.94 as the nearest level to watch. A positive response points toward 155 and then 158.13, while a result missing expectations leaves 142.87 as the first support level, with 140.66 beneath it. The 52-week range stays wide, from 104.83 up to 225.64.
SpaceX reports Q3 earnings after the bell today, marking the end of the company’s second quarter as a public company.
Analysts expect revenue of $13.02 billion, representing a massive 66.7% sequential increase from $7.814 billion in the second quarter. Consensus also calls for earnings of $0.1682 per share, potentially marking a return to profitability as AI infrastructure spending reaches record levels.
Shares have fallen 10.16% over the past week, following a 34.99% surge in the week after the company’s earnings report last quarter.
With $93.52 billion in cash, SPCX has substantial resources to fund its aggressive expansion. However, its $1.93 trillion market capitalization represents more than 42 times projected 2026 revenue of $45.34 billion.
Strong bookings growth, improving profitability, and encouraging updates on cloud expansion and Cursor timing could help justify that premium valuation. Any signs of slowing demand or delayed returns on capital spending could put renewed pressure on the stock.
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results today slightly after 4:00 PM ET, after the market closes. Tonight marks the company’s second report as a public company and tests whether SpaceX’s AI and Starlink growth can support a market cap of about $1.93 trillion.
Last quarter, in its first quarter as a public company, SpaceX posted revenue of $7.814 billion, ahead of the $6.819 billion estimate, on 92% year-over-year growth. The loss of -$0.09 per share came in well ahead of the -$0.2893 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.54 billion.
SpaceX’s spending ran just as hot. Capex reached $18.37 billion, including $15.83 billion for AI compute, and management said the next two quarters would look similar.
| Metric | Q3 2026 Estimate | Change vs. Q2 2026 | FY 2026 Estimate | FY 2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.02B | +66.7% | $45.34B | $117.08B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $0.17 | From -$0.09 | $0.10 | $2.12 |
The quarterly EPS estimate has risen from -$0.09 90 days ago, but the range for tonight runs from -$0.11 to $0.43. The FY 2027 revenue estimate points to 158.2% growth, so analysts are anticipating a very steep ramp.
First, tonight I’m going to be watching cloud revenue. SpaceX signed an additional $6.7 billion of cloud-services revenue over six months starting in October, and its Google and Anthropic deals were set to start ramping later in the quarter or in October. Investors will want to see if management still stands by its past prediction that “the $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark.”
Second, compute capacity. Capacity stood at 1.4 gigawatts against a year-end target of over 2 gigawatts. I want to see how much revenue each new gigawatt brings in.
Third, Cursor. The $60 billion deal was scheduled to close in the third quarter, so we may get an initial read on revenue contribution and integration costs.
Fourth, Starlink pricing. ARPU was $66, flat from the prior quarter but down from $85 a year earlier. Enterprise and government revenue grew 108%, so I’ll check whether that mix shift keeps offsetting the cheaper consumer plans.
Finally, Starship. Flight 14 was set to be the first to carry V3 Starlink satellites to operational orbit, and management called the heat shield problem “solved.”
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Earnings-Day Move | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +68.89% | -13.61% | +6.14% | +34.99% | +36.65% |
Last quarter, shares moved 34.99% within seven days following the earnings release. Tonight will be the company’s second earnings report as a public company.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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