Live: Will SpaceX Crush Expectations in Its First-Ever Earnings Report?

That wraps up our initial coverage of SpaceX’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

SpaceX’s Connectivity segment remained the company’s primary earnings driver during fiscal Q2, powered by accelerating Starlink adoption.

Connectivity revenue climbed 66% year over year and 32% sequentially to $4.29 billion. Starlink subscribers doubled from one year ago to 12 million, including 1.7 million net additions during the quarter, while monthly average revenue per user remained stable at $66.

Enterprise and government revenue increased 108% year over year to $1.81 billion, outpacing the consumer business’s 44% growth. SpaceX expanded its airline presence through agreements involving American Airlines, Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia, and Aer Lingus.

Connectivity operating income jumped 79% to $1.66 billion, while adjusted EBITDA advanced 64% to $2.6 billion. The combination of rapid subscriber growth and expanding margins shows why Starlink remains the foundation supporting SpaceX’s broader ambitions.

SpaceX’s emerging AI business delivered the biggest surprise of its first public earnings report.

AI revenue surged 213% sequentially and 247% year over year to $2.56 billion. The increase was driven primarily by new cloud service agreements, alongside higher revenue from Grok and X subscriptions.

SpaceX signed several cloud agreements totaling $14.1 billion in contracted sales, contributing $1.6 billion in incremental AI infrastructure revenue during Q2. The segment also achieved $1.15 billion in adjusted EBITDA, reversing losses of $609 million in Q1 and $276 million one year ago.

SpaceX continues to spend aggressively on the opportunity. AI capital expenditures reached $15.8 billion during the quarter as compute capacity expanded to 1.4 gigawatts. The company also agreed to acquire Cursor for $60 billion, with the transaction expected to close during Q3.

SpaceX just reported earnings, with shares initially trading flat following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $7.8 billion vs. $6.83 billion expected
• Adjusted EBITDA: $3.5 billion vs. $2.07 billion expected

Quick Read:

SpaceX delivered a major beat in its first earnings report as a public company, with revenue exceeding estimates by 14.2% and adjusted EBITDA beating expectations by 69.1%.

Despite the strong top- and bottom-line performance, shares remain flat as investors wait for management’s outlook and additional details on Starlink, Starship, and the company’s AI initiatives.

The stock had already climbed 10% during Tuesday’s trading, meaning investors already had high expectations ahead of earnings.

Some analysts argue that SpaceX may offer investors a more concentrated way to bet on Elon Musk’s vision for artificial intelligence and autonomy than Tesla.

SpaceX owns the underlying Grok AI platform and provides Starlink connectivity, while Tesla may act more like a customer and distributor of those technologies.

Tesla’s reported $2 billion SpaceX investment also contributed approximately $1 billion in mark-to-market gains during Q2, accounting for nearly 90% of its $1.1 billion in GAAP net income before tax effects.

The key difference is that SpaceX has yet to release a quarterly report as a public company. A strong growth outlook tonight could establish SpaceX as the cleaner AI, compute, and autonomy investment within Musk’s expanding business empire.

One encouraging signal heading into SpaceX’s first public earnings report is its growing deferred revenue balance.

The company ended Q1 with $13.2 billion in current and long-term unearned revenue, an increase of roughly $1.1 billion during the quarter. That balance represents customer payments tied to launches and Starlink capacity.

The backlog provides some visibility into future growth, but it doesn’t fully bridge the gap between the company’s current revenue run rate and Wall Street’s $39 billion forecast for 2026.

Investors will therefore want details on when that deferred revenue converts to reported sales, along with updates on new Starlink customers, launch demand, and the company’s rapidly developing AI and computing business.

SpaceX faces a major test tonight as investors evaluate whether the company can reach Wall Street’s aggressive 2026 revenue target.

SpaceX generated approximately $4.7 billion in Q1 revenue and $19.3 billion over the trailing 12 months.

Analysts, however, expect the company to produce roughly $39 billion in revenue during 2026, followed by annual growth of 85%-95% that lifts sales to approximately $142 billion by 2028.

If SpaceX reaches $142 billion in revenue by 2028, its current enterprise value of approximately $1.55 trillion would equal around 11 times sales. Without that growth, the stock’s valuation of roughly 80 times trailing revenue becomes much harder to defend.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is attracting enormous bearish interest ahead of its first earnings report as a public company. According to data shared by ZeroHedge on Twitter, about 95% of available SpaceX shares have been borrowed, pushing short interest to 34% of the public float.

Elon Musk responded directly to the mounting short bets: “I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷‍♂️”

Chamath Palihapitiya commented on the post as well, noting that in Tesla’s early days, heavily committed short sellers “went broke” after betting against Tesla.

The setup creates the potential for an especially volatile post-earnings move. A strong report or bullish outlook could force short sellers to cover their positions, potentially accelerating any rally through a short squeeze.

SpaceX shares have fallen by more than half from their post-IPO peak and now trade nearly 10% below the company’s $135 offering price. Even after that decline, SpaceX carries a market capitalization near $1.4 trillion and trades at approximately 39 times forward sales.

That valuation assumes much more than continued Falcon 9 launches and steady Starlink growth. Investors are also pricing in major breakthroughs across Starship, SpaceXAI, lunar missions, and potentially orbital computing.

SpaceXAI may prove especially important because the company’s IPO filing reportedly identified artificial intelligence as 93% of its total addressable market. That makes customer billings and AI monetization important parts of tonight’s report.

Strong growth and an upbeat outlook could help stabilize the stock after its sharp decline. Any weakness across AI, Starlink, or Starship execution could reinforce the argument that SpaceX remains priced for too many breakthroughs and too little adversity.

One of the biggest questions surrounding SpaceX is whether Starship can eventually replace the Falcon 9 without disrupting the company’s launch dominance.

Falcon 9 completed 165 launches in 2025, while SpaceX conducted another 40 Falcon-family missions during the first quarter of 2026.

The rocket now has more than 650 orbital launches and a success rate exceeding 99%. SpaceX also recently secured a $1.6 billion Space Force award covering 18 Falcon 9 launches through 2027.

However, the company is gradually shifting resources toward Starship. Its 13th test flight deployed 20 demonstration Starlink V3 satellites and completed a controlled upper-stage splashdown, although the booster experienced several engine relight failures and hard-landed.

Investors will want evidence tonight that Starship’s development remains on schedule. Any significant delay could affect Starlink V3 deployment, NASA’s lunar plans, and SpaceX’s longer-term orbital-computing ambitions.

Wall Street is anchoring to SpaceX’s $26 billion annualized hyperscaler run rate and the path toward $62 billion in FY2027 revenue. Shares last traded at $125.95, soaring about 10% today ahead of Q2 earnings.

Key KPIs: Monthly billings from Anthropic and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL | GOOGL Price Prediction), GPU utilization, and any commentary on the 90-day termination clauses.

Options tell the story: The Aug 7 expiration shows a 1.97x call/put volume ratio and 656,309 call open interest, priming an upside squeeze. Beat odds ticked up to 31.5%.

Trigger levels: Billings above $2.2 billion monthly could likely send the stock over $130; softer numbers or termination-clause risk could retest the $90 floor.

Beyond the headline beat/miss debate, four specific catalysts could reshape the market’s reaction to SpaceX’s Q2 report tonight.

• Options-Prediction Market Divergence: The August 7 expiration shows 303,128 call contracts traded against 153,641 puts, a 3.28x call-to-put open interest ratio. That bullish skew clashes with Polymarket’s 31.5% beat probability.
• Congressional Overhang: A Reddit thread with 141 upvotes flagged that at least six members of Congress bought the IPO, a governance wildcard that could resurface on the call.
• Cursor Capital Allocation: The $60 billion Cursor acquisition puts management’s AI spending under scrutiny.
• Musk Space-Based Compute Tease: Anthropic reportedly expressed interest in multiple gigawatts of space-based capacity, a guidance surprise that could dwarf terrestrial billings.

Bull Case

• Hyperscaler billings could validate the growth story. The Anthropic deal at $1.25 billion per month and Google’s $920 million monthly rental of 110,000 GPUs support a roughly $26 billion annual run rate.
• Analysts see substantial upside, with a $236.71 target and 97.64% implied upside, plus 7 Buy ratings.

Bear Case

• Odds of an earnings miss climbed to 70.5% on Polymarket as the report approaches.
• Reddit sentiment reframes SpaceX as a “measuring stick for the AI bubble”.
• The Anthropic and Google contracts include 90-day termination clauses, questioning revenue durability.
• Shares are down 29.3% over the past month, signaling fading conviction.

SpaceX delivers its first quarterly report as a public company today, with investors looking for evidence that its $1.55 trillion valuation can withstand the recent selloff.

Prediction markets remain skeptical, assigning a 68.5% probability that SpaceX misses Q2 expectations. Shares have already fallen 26% over the past month, although Wall Street’s average price target remains considerably higher at $236.71 vs the current share price of about $120.

The biggest question is whether monthly billings from customers such as Anthropic and Google support the projected path toward $62 billion in fiscal 2027 revenue.

Strong billings could restore confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and valuation. A softer result would likely extend the post-IPO reset, especially with prediction markets pricing in only a 31.5% probability of an earnings beat.