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Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) is expected to report Q3 earnings after the market closes at 4:00 PM ET this evening. In July, Meta ended a 6-quarter EPS beat streak, missing analysts’ EPS estimates by about 14%. This report shows whether the company can drive earnings growth while recording record AI spending.
Last Quarter’s Revenue Beat Met a Margin Squeeze
Meta’s Q2 revenue reached $60.80B, up 27.96% and ahead of the $60.29B estimate. However, EPS of $6.18 missed the $7.22 consensus as total costs rose 55% to $42.03B. That figure included $2.40B in legal charges and $1.18B in severance tied to an 8,000-employee reduction.
Operating margin fell to 31% from 43%, while capex jumped 82.1% to $30.12B. Long-term debt rose to $83.66B to help fund the expansion.
Shares closed at $539.03 after that report and now trade near $708.28. That puts the stock up 7.56% year to date but down 7.11% over the past week. Mark Zuckerberg stayed upbeat in July: “AI is accelerating our core business today.”
Wall Street Cuts Its EPS Bar
| Metric |
Q3 2026 Estimate |
YoY Change |
FY 2026 Estimate |
FY 2027 Estimate |
| Revenue |
$63.39B |
+23.7% |
$254.19B |
$306.92B |
| EPS |
$5.70 |
-21.4% |
$30.61 |
$33.92 |
The revenue estimate sits near the top of Meta’s $61B to $64B guidance. Meanwhile, the EPS consensus has fallen to $7.06 over the past 90 days. Estimates now range from $2.61 to $7.64, which points to wide disagreement over how much legal cost lands this quarter.
What I’m Watching Tonight: Capex, Ad Pricing, and Settlement Costs
Here are some of the top factors I’m watching in Meta’s Q3 earnings report tonight:
- Capex rate. Meta’s CFO Susan Li said, “Near-term capacity is more valuable than long-term capacity.” I’ll be watching Q3 spending against the full-year range and listening for any 2027 framework. Management held that back in July.
- Ad monetization. AI ranking gains drove an 8.3% rise in Facebook ad clicks and a 15.7% lift in conversions. Advantage+ reached a $75 billion run rate. Analysts will be watching whether pricing growth holds alongside impressions.
- Legal costs. In August, Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion to settle state claims tied to youth use of Facebook and Instagram. I’ll be watching how much of that hits Q3 and whether the $165B to $169B expense guidance moves.
- Enterprise AI. More than 1 million businesses use Meta’s business agents every week. Zuckerberg also said, “There is just nowhere near enough compute for all the demand.” Elon Musk shared a similar viewpoint on SpaceX’s earnings call last night. I want pricing details on agents, APIs, and Muse Spark.
Earnings Reaction Track Record
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
Earnings-Day Move |
1-Day Move |
7-Day Move |
30-Day Move |
| Q2 2026 |
-14.42% |
-7.95% |
+3.28% |
+9.44% |
+6.18% |
| Q1 2026 |
+56.79% |
-8.55% |
-0.52% |
+0.8% |
-2.33% |
| Q4 2025 |
+8% |
+10.4% |
-2.95% |
-9.22% |
-11.27% |
| Q3 2025 |
+8.2% |
-11.33% |
-2.72% |
-7.13% |
-2.91% |
On average, shares moved -1.53% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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