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Live: Will Tesla Smash Q3 Earnings Tonight Following SpaceX’s 10% Pop Today?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 21, 4:50pm ET · Published Oct 21, 2:50pm ET

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Tesla Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

That wraps up our initial coverage of Tesla’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

These Top Hedge Funds Are Betting Big on Tesla

TSLA Tesla
Tracked 13F positioning
$7.2Bacross 17 tracked filers
5 added · 6 trimmed · 1 exited
  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc
    $1.8B-0.0%
  • Two Sigma Investments LLC
    $1.2B-0.0%
  • ARK Investment Management LLC
    $1.2B-0.0%
  • Marshall Wace LLP
    $920M—
  • Renaissance Technologies LLC
    $467M+4.3%
  • Millennium Management LLC
    $405M-0.4%
  • Tudor Investment Corp
    $319M—
  • Viking Global Investors LP
    $230M-0.8%

+ 10 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Among 17 filers, six trimmed Tesla versus five adding as of June 30, with no new positions and one exit. ARK Investment Management, one of the biggest holders at $1.16 billion, pared its stake, while Renaissance Technologies went the other way and more than quadrupled its share count. These disclosures are roughly 45 days stale and cover a limited set of filers, so treat them as a snapshot of past positioning rather than a guide to tonight's earnings report.

Tesla Announces FSD Subscriptions Grew 67%

Tesla’s Q3 earnings report included two major developments that could be even more important to its long-term valuation than the company’s earnings beat.

First, Tesla confirmed that it began providing Robotaxi rides using Cybercabs in Austin on September 3, marking a significant milestone in its autonomous driving ambitions.

Meanwhile, active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions surged 67% year over year to 1.74 million, highlighting growing adoption of Tesla’s autonomous driving technology.

The company also announced that production of its Optimus humanoid robot has begun on high-volume production lines in Fremont.

These developments come as Tesla’s traditional automotive business faces pressure, with automotive revenue declining 3% year over year to $20.56 billion.

The big takeaway: Tesla’s robotaxi and robotics initiatives are beginning to reach tangible production and commercialization milestones. Whether those businesses can eventually generate meaningful profits remains a key question for investors.

Tesla Q3 Earnings Are Out: Stock Pops 2% as Robotaxi Momentum Builds

Tesla just reported third-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations on both revenue and adjusted earnings per share. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $28.05 billion vs. $27.88 billion expected (Beat)
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.48 vs. $0.43 expected (Beat)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $3.90 billion vs. $3.71 billion expected (Beat)
  • Gross Margin: 19.6%, up 160 basis points year over year

Quick Read:

  • Double beat: Tesla topped revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, although revenue was flat year over year and adjusted earnings declined 4%.
  • Profitability remains under pressure: Operating income plunged 56% to $718 million, while free cash flow fell 62% to $1.53 billion.

Tesla also reported 486,532 vehicle deliveries, down 2% year over year, as investors look toward robotaxis, autonomous driving, and robotics for future growth.

Wall Street Sees Only 3% Upside for Tesla Ahead of Q3 Earnings

TSLA Tesla
Valuation · as of Oct 21
$385.52+3.2%Target $397.83 · +3.2%
52-wk low $297.3852-wk high $498.83
Trailing P/E
346.0×
Forward P/E
179.7×
PEG
7.8×
Price/Sales
14.2×
EV/EBITDA
122.5×
Price/Book
17.3×
Market cap $1.48T · Revenue +25.5% YoY
4 Strong buy15 Buy21 Hold2 Sell2 Strong sell

At $385.52 into tonight's earnings report, Tesla trades at 346 times trailing earnings and 180 times forward, a price that demands the quarter deliver on 25.5% revenue growth. The stock sits well below its $498.83 52-week high, and the $397.83 consensus target leaves barely 3% of room from here.

Polymarket Shows 64% Odds Tesla Beats Earnings Tonight

TSLA Tesla
Prediction markets
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?
62%Yes-3.5pp this week
Polymarket · $2k traded · resolves Wed, Oct 21

Traders on Polymarket put a modest majority on Tesla clearing the $0.45 consensus tonight, and that confidence has eased in recent days. Volume is thin, making this a sentiment read: the crowd sees a beat as likely, with meaningful uncertainty after the Q2 miss.

Yes probability
53.9%43.5%33.1%

Tesla Traders Are Bullish With a 0.71 Put/Call Ratio

TSLA Tesla
Options positioning
Put/call 0.71Balanced
CallsPuts
ATM implied vol
89.3%
Expiry
Fri, Oct 23chain as of Tue, Oct 20

A 0.71 put/call ratio into tonight's earnings report says call buyers own the setup, with the heaviest open interest stacked at the $380 strike just above the $375 at-the-money line. Traders are leaning bullish, and crowded call positioning leaves the least cushion if the numbers disappoint. At-the-money implied volatility of 89.3% on Friday-expiring contracts shows how wide the market expects the reaction to be.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $367.5
    1.3k / 3.2k
  • $370
    3.9k / 9.2k
  • $372.5
    696 / 1.4k
  • $375
    2.5k / 6.3k
  • $377.5
    702 / 5k
  • $380
    2.2k / 11.4k

Tesla's Key Takeaways From Last Quarter

TSLA Tesla
Last quarter — Q2 2026
EPS
$0.33vs $0.54 est -38.5%
Revenue
$28.24Bvs $26.36B est +7.1%
Earnings-day move -14.5%Since report +3.0%

In Q2, Tesla's revenue beat estimates while margins did not carry through to the bottom line. For Q3, the key question is whether AI and robotaxi spending is finally showing up in profit.

Price since the report
$392$342$291

Reported Wed, Jul 22 · next print Wed, Oct 21

Tesla Stock Jumps 3.6% Today Following SpaceX's 7% Pop Post-Earnings

TSLA Tesla
Regular session
$387.31
+3.64% open $373.71
$389$386$382

A 3.64% jump at $387.31 adds roughly $50 billion of market value to a $1.5 trillion company in a single session. Keep an eye on whether it holds the level into the close.

Analysts' Top Questions Ahead of Tesla's Q3 Results

TSLA Tesla
Call preview · Q3 2026
Wed, Oct 21 Earnings call · after close

Optimus has come up on all four of the last four calls, but robotaxi scaling and its regulatory hurdles is the thread most likely to decide tonight's reaction, with FSD adoption and CapEx questions feeding the same cash-flow worry we flagged this afternoon. Analysts have also pressed on battery and semiconductor supply constraints in each of the last three calls, so any commentary on timing there lands straight on the after-hours move.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
  • Optimus production and supply chain
  • Robotaxi scaling and regulatory hurdles
  • CapEx and vertical integration strategy
  • FSD adoption and software progress
  • Battery and semiconductor supply constraints
  • xAI collaboration and AI synergies

SpaceX Jumped 8% After Earnings. Is Tesla Stock Next After Q3 Earnings Tonight?

Tesla is expected to report third-quarter earnings at about 4:15 PM ET tonight, and expectations are unusually low for one of Wall Street’s most closely watched stocks.

Analysts expect earnings of just $0.45 per share, following a disastrous second quarter in which Tesla missed EPS estimates by 38.51%.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s aggressive AI investments are putting pressure on cash flow. Free cash flow turned negative last quarter, and capital expenditures are expected to exceed $25 billion in 2026.

Investors will be watching for updates on robotaxi expansion, Cybercab production, and the Optimus humanoid robot. These initiatives are increasingly central to Tesla’s long-term valuation as margin pressure hits its automotive and energy businesses.

With Tesla trading at a staggering 389 times earnings and prediction markets assigning just a 34.5% probability of an EPS beat, the stakes are enormous. Strong progress toward commercializing autonomous driving and robotics could help justify the premium valuation.

Another earnings disappointment and accelerating cash burn could raise difficult questions about how much future growth is already priced into the stock.

Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results after the bell today at 4:15 PM ET. Shares are down 14% year-to-date, so this report tests whether the company can drive earnings growth from record spending.

TSLA price target

Record Revenue Meets Vanishing Margins

Last quarter, revenue rose 25.5% to $28.24B and exceeded estimates, but EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.5367 consensus. Operating expenses jumped 47% to $4.35B, pressuring operating margin to 1.4%. Capex of $5.79B drove free cash flow to negative $1.09B.

The stock fell 14.52% in its earnings reaction, then rebounded 6.18% over the past month. Q3 deliveries reached 486,000, down 2% year over year but ahead of the 462,000 analysts sought. Shares also rose today as SpaceX beat estimates.

TSLA earnings explorer

Tesla’s Q3 Consensus Estimates

Metric Q3 2026 Estimate YoY Change FY 2026 Estimate FY 2027 Estimate
Revenue $28.02B -0.24% $106.88B $121.22B
EPS (Normalized) $0.4511 -9.78% $1.7421 $2.1457

Analysts cut the Q3 EPS estimate from $0.5509 90 days ago, and full-year 2026 EPS fell from $2.1306. Flat quarterly revenue against falling EPS shows how heavily investment spending weighs on profits.

What I’m Watching Tonight: Robotaxi Miles, Margins and Cash Burn

First, I’ll be watching Tesla’s automotive margins. Excluding credits, they slipped from 19.2% to 16.3% as commodity costs and interest-rate subsidies bit. Battery supply constraints also limited production.

Energy is the second test. Gross margin fell from 39.5% to 20.4% on a $240ish million warranty charge. Management targets normalization in the mid-to-low 20% range.

Investors will also focus on robotaxi progress. Tesla logged more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised driving with “zero notable incidents” across seven U.S. markets. Cybercab volume links directly to growth in unsupervised miles.

Finally, capex. Tesla’s CFO said spending would rise further in the second half, backed by debt facilities of up to $30 billion. Analysts will look for updates on the Optimus production schedule and the Terafab location.

TSLA earnings quotes

Earnings History

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q2 2026 -38.51% -2.08% -3.39% +9.15%
Q1 2026 +14.14% +0.69% +2.12% +16.02%
Q4 2025 +6.38% +3.32% -4.65% -5.79%
Q3 2025 -10.35% -3.40% -1.98% -6.95%

On average, shares moved -1.98% seven days after earnings over the past year.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Disclaimer: Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. Guides are provided by Fisher Investments. The publisher may be compensated when readers request a guide.
Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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