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Live: Will Tesla Smash Q3 Earnings Tonight Following SpaceX’s 10% Pop Today?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 21, 3:15pm ET · Published Oct 21, 2:50pm ET

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Analysts' Top Questions Ahead of Tesla's Q3 Results

TSLA Tesla
Call preview · Q3 2026
Wed, Oct 21 Earnings call · after close

Optimus has come up on all four of the last four calls, but robotaxi scaling and its regulatory hurdles is the thread most likely to decide tonight's reaction, with FSD adoption and CapEx questions feeding the same cash-flow worry we flagged this afternoon. Analysts have also pressed on battery and semiconductor supply constraints in each of the last three calls, so any commentary on timing there lands straight on the after-hours move.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
  • Optimus production and supply chain
  • Robotaxi scaling and regulatory hurdles
  • CapEx and vertical integration strategy
  • FSD adoption and software progress
  • Battery and semiconductor supply constraints
  • xAI collaboration and AI synergies

SpaceX Jumped 8% After Earnings. Is Tesla Stock Next After Q3 Earnings Tonight?

Tesla is expected to report third-quarter earnings at about 4:15 PM ET tonight, and expectations are unusually low for one of Wall Street’s most closely watched stocks.

Analysts expect earnings of just $0.45 per share, following a disastrous second quarter in which Tesla missed EPS estimates by 38.51%.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s aggressive AI investments are putting pressure on cash flow. Free cash flow turned negative last quarter, and capital expenditures are expected to exceed $25 billion in 2026.

Investors will be watching for updates on robotaxi expansion, Cybercab production, and the Optimus humanoid robot. These initiatives are increasingly central to Tesla’s long-term valuation as margin pressure hits its automotive and energy businesses.

With Tesla trading at a staggering 389 times earnings and prediction markets assigning just a 34.5% probability of an EPS beat, the stakes are enormous. Strong progress toward commercializing autonomous driving and robotics could help justify the premium valuation.

Another earnings disappointment and accelerating cash burn could raise difficult questions about how much future growth is already priced into the stock.

This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results after the bell today at 4:15 PM ET. Shares are down 14% year-to-date, so this report tests whether the company can drive earnings growth from record spending.

TSLA price target

Record Revenue Meets Vanishing Margins

Last quarter, revenue rose 25.5% to $28.24B and exceeded estimates, but EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.5367 consensus. Operating expenses jumped 47% to $4.35B, pressuring operating margin to 1.4%. Capex of $5.79B drove free cash flow to negative $1.09B.

The stock fell 14.52% in its earnings reaction, then rebounded 6.18% over the past month. Q3 deliveries reached 486,000, down 2% year over year but ahead of the 462,000 analysts sought. Shares also rose today as SpaceX beat estimates.

TSLA earnings explorer

Tesla’s Q3 Consensus Estimates

Metric Q3 2026 Estimate YoY Change FY 2026 Estimate FY 2027 Estimate
Revenue $28.02B -0.24% $106.88B $121.22B
EPS (Normalized) $0.4511 -9.78% $1.7421 $2.1457

Analysts cut the Q3 EPS estimate from $0.5509 90 days ago, and full-year 2026 EPS fell from $2.1306. Flat quarterly revenue against falling EPS shows how heavily investment spending weighs on profits.

What I’m Watching Tonight: Robotaxi Miles, Margins and Cash Burn

First, I’ll be watching Tesla’s automotive margins. Excluding credits, they slipped from 19.2% to 16.3% as commodity costs and interest-rate subsidies bit. Battery supply constraints also limited production.

Energy is the second test. Gross margin fell from 39.5% to 20.4% on a $240ish million warranty charge. Management targets normalization in the mid-to-low 20% range.

Investors will also focus on robotaxi progress. Tesla logged more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised driving with “zero notable incidents” across seven U.S. markets. Cybercab volume links directly to growth in unsupervised miles.

Finally, capex. Tesla’s CFO said spending would rise further in the second half, backed by debt facilities of up to $30 billion. Analysts will look for updates on the Optimus production schedule and the Terafab location.

TSLA earnings quotes

Earnings History

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q2 2026 -38.51% -2.08% -3.39% +9.15%
Q1 2026 +14.14% +0.69% +2.12% +16.02%
Q4 2025 +6.38% +3.32% -4.65% -5.79%
Q3 2025 -10.35% -3.40% -1.98% -6.95%

On average, shares moved -1.98% seven days after earnings over the past year.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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