Michael Burry Is Shorting Nebius. SpaceX Just Said Its AI Chips Pay for Themselves in Under a Year.
SpaceX just told investors its AI compute pays back faster than almost anyone expected, and now Michael Burry is betting that confidence will crack. Two earnings reports in the coming weeks will decide who is right.
Last night, Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnson told investors on the third-quarter call for SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) that “At current pricing, new compute deployments are generating a payback of less than a year. Pricing is currently tracking slightly above the high end of the $30 to $50 per watt range we were discussing just last quarter.” Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder, added that a six-month payback next year is “not impossible”.
That claim runs straight into Michael Burry’s short on Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS). Nebius fell 14.53% over the past week and 20.9% over the past month. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) fell 17.83% and 21.41%. In premarket trading on October 21, 2026, Nebius rose 3.13% to $176.81 and CoreWeave rose 2.91% to $63.94.
Shay Boloor noted SpaceX’s comment on X on October 20, 2026: “$SPCX says new AI compute deployments are generating “a payback of less than a year” with pricing now above $50 per watt”. His “above $50” is shorthand for Johnson’s “slightly above the high end.”
What SpaceX Actually Committed To
It is a management statement, without formal backing, about new installations at current prices. SpaceX did not disclose its cost per watt, utilization or depreciation assumptions. Musk hedged the six-month figure himself: “I’m not saying this will happen.” He also said SpaceX leases “at effectively the spot market rate”, so the payback depends on spot prices holding.
Read-Through for Nebius, CoreWeave and SpaceX
Nebius: CEO Arkady Volozh said Q2 deals yield $20 million to $25 million per megawatt, with prepayments covering 50% to 60% of capex. Volozh also cited short-term talks at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt and an auction that cleared 15% above its best Blackwell price. CFO Dado Alonso cited “less than a two-year payback period”. SpaceX’s figure backs up those numbers.
CoreWeave: CEO Michael Intrator said “Our near-term capacity remains effectively sold out.” CFO Nitin Agrawal cited an approximately 25% July price increase and backlog of $104.2 billion.
SpaceX: Its AI segment brought in $7.6 billion last quarter. SpaceX is also selling computing power, so this claim helps its own business.
Reality Check: Interest Bills Arrive Before Payback
Agrawal reported Q2 interest expense of $640 million and guided Q3 to $860 million to $940 million. Alonso’s $775 million asset-backed loan (debt secured by GPUs and signed cash flows) carries SOFR plus 250 basis points. These companies borrow first and earn later, so a price drop hits lenders and shareholders fast. HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) sees structural concerns for neoclouds. Truist Financial (NYSE:TFC) analysts still called SpaceX’s quarter the first data point this earnings season to support the bull case for AI cloud providers.
According to news reports, Burry added to his Nebius short in late September and then switched to put options. Put options gain value when a stock falls. He warned the AI bubble may burst “sooner than later.” The size of his position has not been disclosed. For readers considering whether to ride the AI trade or plan an exit, we wrote a free handbook on doing both.
Is Burry Wrong?
On demand, yes. Three operators report rising prices and fast paybacks. On timing, his risk is the balance sheet, and Nebius and CoreWeave will put that to a test soon. Both report third-quarter results in the coming weeks.
If CoreWeave tops Agrawal’s $3.45 billion to $3.6 billion range and Nebius holds Alonso’s $3 billion to $3.4 billion revenue and $7 billion to $9 billion run-rate guidance, it will provide near-term relief. The clearest signal against Burry would be Nebius per-megawatt pricing holding at or above its Q2 levels while prepayments cover more of the build. If prices slip or prepayments cover less, his case gets stronger. Another area to watch is interest rates and CDS spreads for neoclouds. While near-term business may be exceptional, CDS spreads are a better measure of long-term concerns from the market.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
AJ spent 10 years writing about financial markets at The Motley Fool. His coverage centers on technology stocks and the broader macroeconomic trends, from interest rates to geopolitics, that shape where markets are headed next. AJ is drawn to the stories where big-picture economics and individual companies collide.
