Cleveland-Cliffs Surges 7% Despite Trade Tensions; Steel Dynamics Climbs 3%, Nucor Edges Higher

U.S. steelmakers are rallying while the fund built to track the global industry slips, and Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF | CLF Price Prediction) stock is out front by a wide margin. Cleveland-Cliffs stock is at $14.02, up 7% in early trading, a gain that puts the company’s turnaround story back at the center of the steel trade. Earnings momentum backs the move, with Cleveland-Cliffs beating EPS expectations for a fourth straight quarter in its latest report.

Meanwhile, Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) stock is at $246.88, up 3%, a solid gain that still lags well behind the advance in Cleveland-Cliffs shares. Nucor (NYSE:NUE) stock is trading at $262.49, up 2%, trailing both Steel Dynamics shares and the jump in Cleveland-Cliffs stock.

The VanEck Steel ETF (NYSEARCA:SLX) is at $99.36, down 0.6%, slipping even as its U.S. steel holdings climb and extending a 7% slide over the past month. For comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $762.82, down 0.2%, so the steel stock gains are arriving against a soft broad market.

Cleveland-Cliffs Rides Its Strongest Quarter in Three Years

A strong Q3 2026 report sits behind the climb in Cleveland-Cliffs shares, with adjusted EPS of $0.28 beating the $0.24 consensus. Management reported adjusted EBITDA of $612 million, ahead of the company’s own guidance, and expects the 2027 figure to exceed $4 billion. Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves framed the shift on the earnings call, stating, “The problem is no longer price. The problem is having access to steel.”

Cleveland-Cliffs also faces fresh crosscurrents north of the border, where its Stelco operations sit. The largest share was directed to mills. On October 21, Canada announced a support package for its steel and auto industries to offset U.S. tariffs, and Cleveland-Cliffs confirmed layoffs at its Hamilton, Ontario, plant the same day. Whether either development is feeding the rally in Cleveland-Cliffs shares is an open question.

Weighing the Bull and Bear Cases

The bull case for Cleveland-Cliffs rests on domestic strength, with its average net selling price rising to $1,177 per ton from $1,124 in Q2 2026 and Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA guided to $715 million. Management added on the call that nearly all customers want more steel under contract in 2027 than in 2026. The bear case centers on a heavy borrowing load. The company targets leverage under 2.5x net debt to EBITDA by mid-2027, along with the risk tied to its idled Canadian galvanizing lines.

Steel Dynamics and Nucor share the backdrop of restrained imports and extended lead times that Goncalves described, and moving more steadily, their shares look less tied to any single cross-border policy decision. Carrying Cleveland-Cliffs shares at a far smaller weight than Nucor or Steel Dynamics, the VanEck Steel ETF leans heavily on international miners and steelmakers, according to its June 30 holdings report.

U.S.-Canada Trade Talks Set the Next Test for Cleveland-Cliffs

Cleveland-Cliffs now faces the question of whether the U.S. and Canada return to trade talks, since any shift could land directly on Stelco and its idled lines. Management at Cleveland-Cliffs expects a major debt reduction in Q4 from free cash flow and property sale proceeds. Cleveland-Cliffs’ 2027 contract resets will test the staying power of its pricing gains.

For the VanEck Steel ETF, the open variable is how its international holdings trade against the U.S. steelmakers. Investors weighing their exposure to CLF and peer stocks may choose to reduce their share positions until the path of U.S. and Canadian steel policy resolves.

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