Make or Break for Stellantis on Oct. 28: Can FaSTLAne 2030 Help Steer Carmarker From Its 52-Week Low?
Stellantis stock has shed nearly two-thirds of its value this year, and the October 28 earnings report could either validate the FaSTLAne 2030 turnaround story or confirm investors were right to keep selling.
Stellantis (NYSE:STLA | STLA Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results on Oct. 28. Shares sit at $4.06, down 62.72% this year. This report tests whether the FaSTLAne 2030 turnaround can stop the slide.
Revenue Beats Have Failed to Stop the Selling
Last quarter, revenue of $43.48B beat the $42.48B consensus. Stellantis swung to a $293M net profit from a $1.87B loss, and industrial free cash flow turned positive at €1 billion. Still, EPS of $0.12 missed the $0.399 estimate, and shares fell 5.29% the following week.
Management confirmed guidance for a mid-single-digit revenue increase, a low-single-digit adjusted operating margin, and positive industrial free cash flow in 2027. It also warned that the summer shutdown and raw material inflation would weigh on Q3, with second-half strength weighted toward Q4. Shares have dropped 12.12% over the past month.
Consensus Points to a Q3 Loss
| Metric | Consensus | Prior Year | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 EPS | -$0.179 | N/A | N/A |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | $35.97B | $37.21B | -3.3% |
| FY 2026 EPS | $0.817 | -$0.42 | Turn to profit |
| FY 2026 Revenue | $160.67B | $153.51B | +4.7% |
Ninety days ago, the Q3 EPS estimate was at $0.449. Just one analyst covers quarterly EPS.
Inventory, Cash and Factory Disruptions Decide This Quarter
In North America, U.S. dealer stock topped out near 390,000 units in June, and management expected about 365,000 in July. Q3 U.S. sales held flat at 324,277 units. You should check whether incentives sold off that stock without cutting pricing, which was already a €456 million drag in Q2.
Cash comes next. Management noted negative Q3 working capital and second-half capex more than €1 billion above first-half levels. About €2 billion in payments linked to 2025 charges is due this year, and only €0.9 billion was paid in the first half.
Operations add new risks. A shortage of EV batteries from the Automotive Cells Co. joint venture forced a 10% production cut in Italy and pauses at Rennes and Sochaux. In Canada, Unifor members supported a strike authorization by 97.3%.
The Value Creation Program is targeting €6 billion in annual run-rate savings by 2028. Higher-margin launches like the Ram 1500 TRX SRT, along with the Jeep Recon BEV, need to start showing up in the mix.
Credibility Is the Asset Stellantis Must Rebuild
Chief Executive Antonio Filosa told investors in July, “The road is long, but we are moving in the right direction with the right priorities and with the right pace.” With the stock near its lows and the credit rating at BBB-, the market wants proof. A Q3 loss is already in the estimates. What matters now is whether management keeps its full-year guidance and shows clear progress toward positive cash flow in 2027. That’s the evidence that could finally put a floor under the shares.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
