Micron’s Earnings Guidance May Look Weak Tomorrow. Buy MU Stock Anyway
Micron reports tomorrow, and a guidance miss could spark a selloff that has nothing to do with the company's actual earnings power. Here is what to watch before reacting.
Live
1 update · Last at 1:46pm ET
Updates appear automatically.
Live: Will Micron Smash Q4 Earnings Tonight After the Market Close?
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Live Updates
Newest firstMicron's 86% Gross Margin Target is the Number to Watch Tonight
Micron heads into tonight’s Q4 earnings with expectations extremely high. The company guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $50.0 billion +/- $1.0 billion, compared with a consensus estimate of $50.97 billion.
Management has already acknowledged there may be some moderation in price increases, putting Micron’s roughly 86% gross margin target squarely in focus, even ahead of revenue.
Management has argued that long-term supply agreements and tight memory capacity can make earnings more durable than in previous boom-and-bust cycles, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra saying, “We see 2027 overall tight.”
Investors will be looking for new contract details and strong fiscal Q1 guidance to reinforce that argument. Expectations leave little room for disappointment: Micron shares fell 19.61% in the week following its last earnings beat.
This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
Full Coverage
The story so farMicron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal Q4 2026 results at 4:00 PM ET after the market closes today and will hold its earnings call at 4:30 PM ET. The $1.21 trillion company will give the market updates on whether its AI-driven memory upcycle can last.
Record Margins Meet a Skeptical Post-Earnings Pattern
Last quarter, revenue reached $41.46 billion, up 345.7% from a year earlier. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $25.11, beating the $20.28 consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin hit a record 84.9%, and free cash flow reached a record $18.3 billion.
The stock rose 15.74% on earnings day last quarter, but it retraced 19.61% over the following week. Shares now trade at $1,073.10, and are up about 15.03% over the past month.
Much of last quarter’s Q3 earnings call focused on 16 Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs). These are take-or-pay contracts, and most run through calendar 2030. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said they “will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance.”
Consensus Estimates Point to Slower Sequential Growth
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 Estimate | YoY Change | FY2026 Estimate | FY2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.97B | +350.3% | $129.86B | $245.57B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $31.3542 | +934.8% | $73.4591 | $156.5298 |
The revenue consensus calls for 23.0% sequential growth, well below the 74% sequential jump in fiscal Q3. The Q4 EPS estimate has risen from $24.1844 90 days ago. However, over the past 30 days, it saw two downward revisions and none upwards. FY2027 revenue estimates call for 89.1% growth, so fiscal Q1 2027 guidance will show whether that path holds.
What I’m Watching Tonight: Pricing, SCA Revenue and HBM4
Here are four of the top points I’ll be watching in Micron’s Q4 earnings tonight:
- Margin math. CFO Mark Murphy warned that “incremental price yields less in gross margin expansion.” The question is whether margins hold near 86% as price increases slow.
- SCA conversion. RPO (remaining performance obligations, or contracted revenue not yet recognized) was over $5 billion at the end of fiscal Q3. Including agreements signed after the quarter, it was about $100 billion. The focus should be on new deals toward management’s goal of half or more of revenue under SCAs, and on the roughly $18 billion in cash deposits.
- HBM4 performance. Micron has shipped over $1 billion in HBM4 revenue, and the 12-high ramp is tracking twice as fast as HBM3E. The key questions now are how much depends on the lead customer and how HBM4E is progressing toward calendar 2027 volume production.
- Capex and returns. Management guided fiscal Q4 capex to around $10 billion and fiscal 2026 capex to about $27 billion. It plans to increase capital returns starting December 9, 2026.
Earnings History Shows Beats Without Follow-Through
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-Of Move | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | +23.79% | +15.74% | -6.69% | -19.61% | -32.39% |
| Q2 FY2026 | +31.04% | -3.78% | -4.81% | -19.99% | +1.15% |
| Q1 FY2026 | +21.32% | +10.21% | +6.99% | +14.58% | +59.96% |
| Q4 FY2025 | +12.64% | -2.82% | -3.02% | +12.64% | +35.44% |
On average, shares swung -3.1% in the week after earnings over the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
