Micron's one red flag in an otherwise record quarter is that fiscal Q1 gross margin was guided to only 86.25%, which is slightly below the 87.0% gross margin delivered for Q4. This is the first hint that pricing gains may start slowing down even as revenue climbs to $61.5 billion.
Coverage ended
21 updates · Last at 5:00pm ET
Live: Will Micron Smash Q4 Earnings Tonight After the Market Close?
Live Updates
Newest firstMicron Q4 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up
That wraps up our initial coverage of Micron’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!
Micron’s Blowout Quarter Came With One Red Flag
Reddit Called Micron Right. The Bulls Got Their Blowout Quarter
Reddit hype check
36Board activity / 100Bullish lean · 67
Retail called this one right: the bullish lean we flagged at 3:10 pm held through results that topped expectations on both lines and a fiscal Q1 revenue guide of $61.5 billion. Board activity still sits well below the levels a trillion-dollar memory maker's record quarter might suggest.
Board activity — past 7 days
Micron's Key Q4 Numbers: Two-Thirds of Revenue Now Comes From Data Centers
Q4 2026 reported
- Revenue$54.23B+379%
- Gross profit$47.05B+831%
- Operating income$43.75B+1066%
- Net income$37.70B+1078%
- Operating cash flow$43.97B+667%
- Free cash flow$33.20B+46010%
- Capex$11.11B+96.4%
- Cash$38.36B+298%
- Cloud Memory$16.28B
- Core Data Center$18.00B
- Mobile and Client$13.11B
- Automotive and Embedded$6.82B
Data center is now the whole story: Core Data Center at $18.0B plus Cloud Memory at $16.28B account for roughly two-thirds of the $54.23B quarter, with Automotive and Embedded at $6.82B the smallest piece. That mix is why operating income rose 1,065.5% and why the $61.5B guide rests on AI customers staying committed.
Micron Beats Wall Street by More Than 6% on Both Revenue and Earnings
Q4 2026
EPS
$33.42
est $31.35
+6.6%
Revenue
$54.23B
est $50.97B
+6.4%
AI memory pricing power is still compounding: Micron beat on both lines and guided fiscal Q1 revenue to $61.5 billion, well above the quarter it just reported. Management says fiscal 2027 will get stronger from here.
Micron Reached $18.6 Billion Net Cash From $7.7 Billion Net Debt 18 Months Ago
Balance sheet · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026
$18.62BNet cash
Micron flipped from a $7.7B net debt position in Q4 2024 to $18.6B in net cash by Q2 2026, with total debt cut to $6.4B and equity more than doubling to $100.7B. That gives management room to fund HBM capacity expansion out of cash flow, so any capex hike on tonight's call lands as a growth choice rather than a balance sheet strain.
Net cash by quarter
Micron CEO Says the Record Run Is Just Getting Started
Earnings · 2026 Q4
Sanjay Mehrotra
CEO
Micron delivered record fiscal 2026 results, and we expect an even stronger fiscal 2027. AI is becoming Super Intelligence (SI), and memory enhances this intelligence and the competitiveness of our customers' platforms. We are increasing our investments in technology, products and manufacturing to help drive SI forward with our customers, and our Strategic Customer Agreements provide added confidence in the durability of Micron's financial performance.
Micron CEO Mehrotra is guiding for fiscal 2027 to top a record fiscal 2026, and he's backing it with higher capital spending on memory technology and manufacturing. The multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements lock in memory pricing power beyond the cycle.
Micron’s Cash Machine Just Shifted Into Another Gear in Q4
Micron’s operating cash flow reached $43.97 billion, crushing the $34.47 billion estimate by nearly $9.5 billion.
The AI data center boom is showing up across the business. Cloud Memory generated $16.28 billion in revenue while Core Data Center contributed another $18.00 billion, meaning the two businesses combined for more than $34 billion in quarterly sales.
With Micron now forecasting $61.5 billion in Q1 revenue, well above the $57.02 billion consensus, management expects strength to continue into fiscal 2027.
Micron Q4 Earnings Are Out - Stock Trades Flat Despite Strong Results
Micron just reported earnings, with shares initially flat following the report. Here are the key numbers:
- Revenue: $54.23 billion vs. $51.07 billion expected
- Adjusted EPS: $33.42 vs. $31.61 expected
- Adjusted Gross Margin: 87.0% vs. 86.1% expected
Guidance:
- Revenue: $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion vs. $57.02 billion expected
- Adjusted EPS: $38.15 ± $1.00 vs. $35.40 expected
- Adjusted gross margin: ~86.25% vs. 86.4% expected
Quick Read:
- Micron delivered a clean Q4 beat, with revenue, EPS, and the closely watched 87% gross margin all coming in ahead of expectations.
- Q1 revenue and EPS guidance also crushed estimates, although the 86.25% gross margin outlook came in slightly below the 86.4% consensus.
Micron Trades at Just 6.8x Forward Earnings. Here’s the Catch
Valuation · as of Sep 30
$1,069.78+0.4%Target $1,520.76 · +42.2%
52-wk low $179.4352-wk high $1,254.81
- Trailing P/E
- 23.8×
- Forward P/E
- 6.8×
- PEG
- 0.1×
- Price/Sales
- 13.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- 17.8×
- Price/Book
- 12.3×
A 6.83 forward P/E against 345.7% revenue growth is what happens when earnings estimates race ahead of a stock that already ran from $179.43 to a $1,254.81 high. Shares sit near $1,070 into tonight's report, with the consensus target of $1,520.76 implying roughly 42% more upside and 44 of 48 analysts at buy or better.
Forget Revenue. All Eyes Are on Micron’s 86% Gross Margin Target Tonight
Margin story · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026
- Gross
- 84.6%+46.9pp YoY
- Operating
- 80.4%+57.1pp YoY
- Net
- 68.1%+47.8pp YoY
Gross margin has climbed from 35.3% in Q3 2024 to 84.6% in Q2 2026, which is why tonight's roughly 86% gross margin target leaves almost no room for error. Operating margin at 80.4% means nearly every incremental pricing dollar is falling to the bottom line, so any moderation in DRAM pricing shows up in margin before it shows up in revenue.
Operating margin by quarter
Wall Street Was Dumping Micron. One Tech Fund Just Added 18%
Tracked 13F positioning
$16Bacross 19 tracked filers
3 added · 10 trimmed · 1 new · 1 exited
- Situational Awareness$5.6B—
- Coatue Management LLC$3.6B+18%
- Marshall Wace LLP$1.6B—
- Appaloosa LP$1.1B-0.4%
- D. E. Shaw & Co Inc$887M-0.8%
- Atreides Management$821M—
- Two Sigma Investments LLC$618M-0.8%
- Millennium Management LLC$597M-0.7%
+ 12 more tracked holders
As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.
Across the 19 filers we track, funds that were trimming outnumbered buyers 10 to 3 in the quarter ended June 30, the last disclosure available and roughly 45 days old by the time it landed. Coatue Management, a heavily tech-focused fund, went the other way, adding nearly 18% to a position now worth about $3.6 billion.
Stay On This Page to Receive Live Micron Q4 Earnings Updates
This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.
We expect Micron Technology to release Q4 earnings shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.
Reddit Is Bullish on Micron Tonight, but This Number Could Make or Break the Stock
Reddit hype check
36Board activity / 100Bullish lean · 67
Retail is leaning bullish into tonight's report, with 51 qualified mentions over the past week and sentiment firmly on the long side. Notably, the loudest thread driving r/wallstreetbets right now is Anthropic's IPO filing, so the boards are treating the memory trade as an AI derivative. Micron's gross margin number tonight against an 86% target will likely drive the market's reaction.
Board activity — past 7 days
Micron's Technical Setup Heading Into Q4 Earnings Tonight
Technical setup
- R2$1108.72+3.6%
- R1$1089.29+1.7%
- Now$1070.59
- S1$918.88-14.2%
- S2$893.96-16.5%
- 50-day avg
- $951.69+12.5% above
- 200-day avg
- $673.17+59.0% above
- 52-week range
- $154.65 – $1255.00
Micron heads into tonight's Q4 report at $1,070.59, wedged just under resistance at $1,089.29 with $1,108.72 stacked right behind it. Clearing that pair is what a beat has to accomplish. Otherwise, the air pocket down to support at $918.88 leads to the downside conversation, and that still sits well above the 50-day at $951.69 and miles over the 200-day at $673.17.
Micron Option Traders Are Bullish With a 0.65 Put/Call Ratio
Options positioning
Put/call 0.65Balanced
CallsPuts
- ATM implied vol
- 105.9%
- Expiry
- Fri, Oct 2chain as of Tue, Sep 29
A 0.65 put/call ratio into tonight's earnings says traders are bullish and leaning toward calls, with call open interest stacked at the 1,075 strike above the 1,070 money. That shows the market is confident in another beat, but that one-sided optimism also leaves the stock exposed if Micron's gross margin results disappoint. Either way, 105.9% at-the-money implied volatility on Friday's expiration shows how violent the reaction is expected to be.
- $1062.579 / 391
- $1065251 / 699
- $1067.551 / 214
- $10701.1k / 1.1k
- $1072.549 / 211
- $1075402 / 1.1k
Micron's Blowout Results Last Quarter Set a High Bar Tonight
Last quarter — Q3 2026
- EPS
- $25.11vs $20.28 est +23.8%
- Revenue
- $41.46Bvs $35.25B est +17.6%
Last quarter, memory shipped out the door faster than Micron could guide for, and both the top and bottom lines blew past what analysts had anticipated. That sets a high bar for tonight, because the fiscal Q4 guide management gave already sits below consensus revenue, leaving margin as the swing factor.
next print Wed, Sep 30
Analysts' Top Questions for Micron Ahead of Q4 Results Tonight
Call preview · Q4 2026
Wed, Sep 30
Earnings call · after close
Analysts have pressed Micron on Supply Continuity Agreements and long-term deals on all four of the last calls, and that thread is the one most likely to move the stock after tonight's report. With HBM share and margin sustainability also asked every quarter, how much 2027 supply is already locked in at fixed pricing will tell investors whether the gross margin story survives the moderation in price increases management has already flagged.
Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26
- HBM roadmap and market share
- Gross margin expansion and sustainability
- Supply Continuity Agreements and LTAs
- CapEx and manufacturing capacity
- Enterprise SSD and NAND mix
Micron Has Beaten EPS in the Past 8 Quarters
Earnings preview · Q4 2026
- Reports
- Wed, Sep 30After close
- Consensus EPS
- $31.35
- Consensus revenue
- $50.97B
Micron has seen 8 straight beats, the last 4 by double-digit percentages and has set a high bar for this trillion-dollar memory maker tonight. Guidance already came in below where the Street sits, so the November quarter outlook and pricing commentary carry more weight than the quarter itself.
What to watch
- Whether the roughly 86% gross margin target we flagged this morning holds into fiscal Q1
- HBM capacity sold-out commentary and 2027 pricing agreements
- DRAM versus NAND pricing trajectory as management warns of moderation
- Capex plans and any China export-control exposure
Prediction Markets Price 96% Odds of Micron EPS Beat Tonight
Prediction markets
Will Micron (MU) beat quarterly earnings?
96%Yes-0.5pp this week
Prediction markets show near-certain odds of an EPS beat tonight, so expectations for Micron are heavily skewed to the upside. With expectations that lopsided, the reaction hinges on the gross margin Micron reports tonight.
Yes probability
Micron's 86% Gross Margin Target is the Number to Watch Tonight
Micron heads into tonight’s Q4 earnings with expectations extremely high. The company guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $50.0 billion +/- $1.0 billion, compared with a consensus estimate of $50.97 billion.
Management has already acknowledged there may be some moderation in price increases, putting Micron’s roughly 86% gross margin target squarely in focus, even ahead of revenue.
Management has argued that long-term supply agreements and tight memory capacity can make earnings more durable than in previous boom-and-bust cycles, with CEO Sanjay Mehrotra saying, “We see 2027 overall tight.”
Investors will be looking for new contract details and strong fiscal Q1 guidance to reinforce that argument. Expectations leave little room for disappointment: Micron shares fell 19.61% in the week following its last earnings beat.
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
Full Coverage
The story so farMicron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal Q4 2026 results at 4:00 PM ET after the market closes today and will hold its earnings call at 4:30 PM ET. The $1.21 trillion company will give the market updates on whether its AI-driven memory upcycle can last.
Record Margins Meet a Skeptical Post-Earnings Pattern
Last quarter, revenue reached $41.46 billion, up 345.7% from a year earlier. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $25.11, beating the $20.28 consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin hit a record 84.9%, and free cash flow reached a record $18.3 billion.
The stock rose 15.74% on earnings day last quarter, but it retraced 19.61% over the following week. Shares now trade at $1,073.10, and are up about 15.03% over the past month.
Much of last quarter’s Q3 earnings call focused on 16 Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs). These are take-or-pay contracts, and most run through calendar 2030. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said they “will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance.”
Consensus Estimates Point to Slower Sequential Growth
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 Estimate | YoY Change | FY2026 Estimate | FY2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.97B | +350.3% | $129.86B | $245.57B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $31.3542 | +934.8% | $73.4591 | $156.5298 |
The revenue consensus calls for 23.0% sequential growth, well below the 74% sequential jump in fiscal Q3. The Q4 EPS estimate has risen from $24.1844 90 days ago. However, over the past 30 days, it saw two downward revisions and none upwards. FY2027 revenue estimates call for 89.1% growth, so fiscal Q1 2027 guidance will show whether that path holds.
What I’m Watching Tonight: Pricing, SCA Revenue and HBM4
Here are four of the top points I’ll be watching in Micron’s Q4 earnings tonight:
- Margin math. CFO Mark Murphy warned that “incremental price yields less in gross margin expansion.” The question is whether margins hold near 86% as price increases slow.
- SCA conversion. RPO (remaining performance obligations, or contracted revenue not yet recognized) was over $5 billion at the end of fiscal Q3. Including agreements signed after the quarter, it was about $100 billion. The focus should be on new deals toward management’s goal of half or more of revenue under SCAs, and on the roughly $18 billion in cash deposits.
- HBM4 performance. Micron has shipped over $1 billion in HBM4 revenue, and the 12-high ramp is tracking twice as fast as HBM3E. The key questions now are how much depends on the lead customer and how HBM4E is progressing toward calendar 2027 volume production.
- Capex and returns. Management guided fiscal Q4 capex to around $10 billion and fiscal 2026 capex to about $27 billion. It plans to increase capital returns starting December 9, 2026.
Earnings History Shows Beats Without Follow-Through
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-Of Move | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | +23.79% | +15.74% | -6.69% | -19.61% | -32.39% |
| Q2 FY2026 | +31.04% | -3.78% | -4.81% | -19.99% | +1.15% |
| Q1 FY2026 | +21.32% | +10.21% | +6.99% | +14.58% | +59.96% |
| Q4 FY2025 | +12.64% | -2.82% | -3.02% | +12.64% | +35.44% |
On average, shares swung -3.1% in the week after earnings over the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
