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Coinbase Q3 Earnings Preview: Can Crypto’s Rebound Save COIN From A Fourth Consecutive Miss Oct. 29?

Coinbase has missed revenue expectations three quarters running, but a late-summer Bitcoin surge and a dramatically lowered earnings bar set up an unusually pivotal moment when the company reports October 29.

By Rich Duprey

Published October 25, 2026, 11:10am ET · 2 min read

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As Coinbase prepares its Q3 earnings report, the performance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is a critical factor for the company's financial outlook. © Pro Aerial Master / Shutterstock.com

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results Oct. 29 after the bell. It has missed revenue expectations three quarters in a row, so the big question is whether crypto’s late-summer rally came soon enough to end that run.

Bitcoin Rallied After Coinbase’s Weakest Quarter

Last quarter was rough. Revenue came in at $1.22B, missing the $1.29B consensus and falling 18.5% year over year. GAAP EPS of -$1.36 also missed the -$0.2278 estimate. Spot trading volume dropped 25% from the prior quarter as crypto volatility fell to multi-year lows.

There were bright spots. Coinbase’s share of crypto trading volume reached an all-time high of 10.3%, and adjusted EBITDA of $207.8M was positive for the 14th consecutive quarter. Since then, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has gained 26.84% over 90 days to about $80,199. Momentum has cooled, though, with Bitcoin down 3.92% over the past month.

Consensus Estimates Point to a Loss

Metric	Consensus	Year-Ago Actual	YoY Change
Q3 2026 EPS	-$0.2169	$1.44	Moved to a loss
Q3 2026 Revenue	$1.20B	$1.87B	-35.6%
FY 2026 EPS	-$1.7817	$4.03	Moved to a loss
FY 2026 Revenue	$5.37B	$7.18B	-25.2%

Transaction Revenue and Cost Discipline Will Decide This Quarter

Transaction revenue comes first. Management reported about $130M quarter-to-date through July 26 but warned against projecting from it. Consumer transaction revenue fell 20% year over year to $452M in Q2. I’ll be watching whether the Bitcoin rally ended that fall.

Subscription and services revenue is the buffer. Guidance calls for $500M-$580M, compared with $555M last quarter. Average USDC held in Coinbase products hit a record $20B, and the CFO confirmed the Circle agreement “will renew on the same terms.”

On costs, you should look at adjusted expenses against the $980M-$1,080M guide. Coinbase cut staff by 14% and lowered its full-year expense outlook to $4,200M-$4,450M. Management has committed to positive adjusted EBITDA in all market conditions.

I also want updates on the “Everything Exchange” push. Prediction markets revenue more than doubled last quarter and passed $100M annualized. The CEO’s argument was simple: “The diversity of trading fee revenue will continue to increase, and Bitcoin tends to cycle. It will come back in a big way at times.” Any early read on October volumes will matter as much as the third-quarter numbers.

A Lower Bar Gives Coinbase a Chance to Reset

Analysts have cut the quarterly EPS consensus sharply. It stood at $0.4273 90 days ago and now stands at -$0.2169 today. That leaves Coinbase a much lower bar to clear. After the Q2 miss, shares fell 10.59% on earnings day and then gained 20.89% over the next 30 days. If Coinbase meets expectations while stablecoin and subscription revenue holds firm, its diversification story will look much more credible heading into 2027.

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Rich Duprey

After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.

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