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Live: Will Coinbase Beat Earnings Tonight?

By Eric Bleeker · Updated Feb 12, 4:41pm ET · Published Feb 12, 3:42pm ET

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Coinbase's Conference Call Starts at 5:30 p.m. ET

We’ve embedded Coinbase’s conference call below:

The call won’t begin until 5:30 p.m. ET.

We will update this live blog if anything material is said. So if you want continuing updates, leave this page open or come back and reload it. 

Coinbase shares are now up 5% despite badly missing EPS and revenue. As we’ve noted in this blog, Coinbase shares were down 42% in the past month so expectations for earnings were extremely low.

Coinbase Business Lines Show Transaction Revenue Falling

Here’s a look at Coinbase’s business lines:

COIN Q4

As you can see, transaction revenue took a step back from Q3. Stablecoin revenue continues to grow, albeit at a lessened pace.

Blockchain rewards dropped with falling asset prices in the crypto space.

Coinbase Shares Now Up

Coinbase shares are now up, which might be surprising. After all, the company missed on both subscription and transaction revenue.

EPS was -$2.49 versus expectations of being positive.

Yet, its important to remember that plenty of bad news was already baked in. Shares were down 42% in the past month.

Robinhood reported earlier this week and gave details on how damaging the drop in crypto prices have been.

So, while these earnigns have little to cheer about, they’re also coming after the company saw massive losses already.

Multiple Metrics Miss

Both transaction revenue and subscription revenue both missed expectations.

Shares are now down about 5% in after hours trading. 

Coinbase Earnings Are Out

Coinbase’s earnings were just released and here are the most need-to-know figures:

  • EPS: -$2.49
  • Revenue: $1.78

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected:

  • Adjusted EPS: $.96
  • GAAP EPS: $.62
  • Revenue: $1.83 billion

Shares are initially down 3% on the release. 

Coinbase Earnings Expected at About 4:10 ET

We expect Coinbase’s earnings to appear a little after the market’s close today. So if you see initial after-hours movement, that is likely just noise.

As a reminder, we’ll begin posting news and analysis the moment Coinbase’s earnings drop. To receive them, simply stay on this page, and new updates will post automatically. 

Tough Day for Robinhood

Robinhood shares are down another 9% today, and are now trading dramatically below their pre-earnings price.

One troubling area was Robinhood starting that crypto volumes were down 57% year-over-year in January. That’s not entirely surprising with crypto prices hitting lows throughout the month, but its a metric to keep in mind as Coinbase reports tonight.

Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Coinbase Global (Nasdaq: COIN | COIN Price Prediction) reports fourth quarter 2025 earnings tonight after the market close. After a volatile year for crypto markets and a 44% decline in the stock over the past month, investors are watching closely to see if the exchange can sustain profitability amid challenging conditions.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts are forecasting adjusted earnings per share of $0.96 on revenue of $1.83 billion for the quarter. That would represent a significant step down from the prior quarter, when Coinbase posted $1.87 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $1.50 per share.

The consensus estimate sits well below the company’s recent track record. Last quarter delivered a 27% earnings beat, continuing a pattern of volatile results that have ranged from 240% beats to 87% misses over the past year.

Bitcoin’s Collapse Weighs on Sentiment

The backdrop for tonight’s report is challenging. Bitcoin has fallen 23.5% year to date to $67,809, creating headwinds for transaction revenue. JPMorgan cut its price target on Coinbase by 27% to $290 ahead of earnings, citing a “less constructive crypto operating environment” and expectations for lower trading volumes.

Prediction markets reflect this caution. Polymarket traders are pricing in a 69% probability that Coinbase will miss or merely meet the $0.61 GAAP EPS consensus (keep in mind that Wall Street often tracks adjusted earnings), a stark contrast to last quarter when the market heavily favored a beat.

What I’m Watching Tonight

Transaction revenue will tell the story. Management guided to roughly $385 million in October transaction revenue, but the question is whether November and December held up as Bitcoin volatility picked up. The 16% swing in Bitcoin prices between $62,181 and $72,232 during early February suggests elevated volatility that could have driven trading activity.

I’ll also be focused on subscription and services revenue, which management projected would land between $710 million and $790 million. This segment has been the more stable revenue driver, growing 14% quarter over quarter in Q3 as USDC adoption expanded.

The Deribit acquisition’s contribution matters too. Institutional derivatives trading could partially offset weakness in retail spot volumes, and management’s commentary on the “Everything Exchange” strategy will signal whether diversification efforts are gaining traction.

Why This Quarter Matters

After returning to consistent profitability in 2024 following the brutal 2022 downturn, Coinbase needs to prove it can maintain positive earnings even when crypto markets turn choppy. The company increased its share buyback authorization to $2 billion, signaling management confidence, but execution is what counts.

If subscription revenue holds up and management frames 2026 guidance constructively around institutional adoption and tokenization opportunities, I think sentiment could shift quickly despite near term headwinds. But if transaction revenue collapsed and margins compressed, the stock’s recent weakness could extend further.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Eric Bleeker

Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.

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