Can Record Deliveries Finally Cure Rivian’s Cash Burn on Oct. 29?
Rivian just posted record quarterly deliveries, yet shares have cratered nearly 40% this year and the cash keeps flowing out. The October 29 earnings report will reveal whether surging volume is finally bending the cost curve toward something that looks…
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results on Oct. 29. We already know deliveries hit a record. What I want to know is whether that volume is finally slowing the cash burn. Shares have fallen 21.24% over the past month.
Record Volume Meets a Sliding Stock
Second-quarter revenue rose 27% to $1.66 billion, and the adjusted EBITDA loss came in at $379 million. Deliveries of 12,194 topped management’s 9,000-11,000 outlook, and the R2 reached its first customers in June. The automotive gross loss narrowed to $36 million from $335 million a year earlier, even after about $100 million in R2 ramp costs.
Management raised 2026 delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000 vehicles and cut capex guidance to $1.7 billion-$1.8 billion. In July, a share sale brought in about $1.3 billion. Third-quarter deliveries then reached 19,248, up 45% from a year earlier. The stock still trades at $11.83, down 39.98% year to date.
Consensus Points to Faster Growth and Narrower Losses
| Metric | Estimate | Prior-Year Actual | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 Normalized EPS | -$0.721 | -$0.96 | Loss narrows 24.9% |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | $1.99 billion | $1.558 billion | +27.8% |
| FY 2026 EPS | -$2.4298 | -$3.07 | Loss narrows 20.9% |
| FY 2026 Revenue | $7.45 billion | $5.387 billion | +38.3% |
R2 Ramp Costs and Fourth-Quarter Math Take Center Stage
Automotive gross profit is my first stop. Management already warned that the third quarter would absorb the ramp’s full cost: “In Q3, we’ll have a full quarter’s impact of the ramp, and we’ll see some additional labor cost associated with the ramp as well.” I’ll be watching whether expedited shipping and supplier premiums start to fade.
Next is the second shift. Management expected it in place by the end of the third quarter, with its contribution arriving in the fourth. That timing matters, because Rivian needs a record 23,200+ fourth-quarter deliveries to reach the low end of guidance. The CEO has said output is “gated by the slowest moving supplier”, so look for any update on supply.
Watch regulatory credits as well. They added $164 million to gross profit in the first half, and management doesn’t expect that rate to hold. It also expects higher R&D spending on autonomy GPUs. Software and services provide some support, with $515 million in second-quarter revenue, 60% of it from the Volkswagen joint venture.
Funding is the last piece. Rivian expects $1 billion in Volkswagen debt and $250 million from Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) later this year, while its Department of Energy loan has been cut to $4.5 billion from $6.57 billion.
Volume Has to Start Paying for Itself
The CEO called this moment “an inflection point for the business in terms of path to profitability and scale”. The CFO still expects R2 to reach positive gross profit by its 2026 exit rate. If ramp costs per unit are shrinking and the fourth-quarter delivery path looks credible, that turning point gets easier to believe. If they aren’t, dilution concerns from July could return quickly.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
