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ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW | NOW Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results today at 4:10 PM ET. Shares are down 3.77% today, but up 11.12% over the past month, so the bar is higher for a quarter where management guided cRPO growth lower.
Federal Windfall Meets a Harder Comparison
ServiceNow beat on both revenue and earnings in Q2. EPS came in at $0.90 against a $0.8564 consensus, and revenue rose 24.0% to $3.987B. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 29.5%, which was 300 basis points above guidance.
The stock gained 19.72% in the week after that report. Even so, shares are still down 1.63% year to date and 20.37% over the past year. Management raised full-year subscription guidance to $15.76 to $15.78 million. The CFO called the federal shift “simply about timing.”
Acquisitions are weighing on GAAP results. GAAP subscription gross margin fell to 73.5% from 80% as amortization of purchased intangible assets rose.
ServiceNow’s Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q3 2026 Estimate |
YoY Change |
FY 2026 Estimate |
FY 2027 Estimate |
| Revenue |
$4.09B |
+20.2% |
$16.22B |
$19.28B |
| EPS (Normalized) |
$1.02 |
+6.1% |
$4.07 |
$5.00 |
Expected revenue growth of about 20% is below Q2’s 24.0% rate, which is consistent with the federal timing shift. EPS growth trails revenue growth (YoY comparisons against split-adjusted Q3 2025 EPS of $0.964) because guided operating margin of 31% sits below last year’s 33.5%. Q3 EPS estimates have barely changed in 90 days, moving from $1.0255 to $1.0231.
What to Watch Tonight: AI Monetization, Federal Timing and Margins
Here are some of the top items to watch for in ServiceNow’s earnings report tonight:
- AI conversion. I’ll be watching whether AI net new ACV continues growing after rising “over 40% quarter-over-quarter” in Q2. Management says it is ahead of its target of AI reaching 30% of ACV by 2030. AI-native SKU upgrades are bringing price increases of 20% to 30%.
- Federal follow-through. Last quarter, ServiceNow’s CEO, Bill McDermott, explained the strength of the company’s government sector: “Has the government business weakened? It’s never been stronger.” Q3 is usually the biggest federal quarter, so it should indicate whether the Q2 pull-forward drained the pipeline or whether demand from the Air Force and Armis-driven security deals fills the gap.
- Gross margin. Management noted short-term pressure from greater AI consumption and hyperscaler costs. Analysts will compare those comments against full-year guidance for an 81% non-GAAP subscription gross margin.
- Cybersecurity scale. The CEO pointed to a “$1 billion-plus cybersecurity business.” Investors will be listening for updates on how the Armis and Veza integrations are going and on early adoption of the new conversational service desk.
ServiceNow’s Earnings History
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
1-Day Move |
7-Day Move |
30-Day Move |
| Q2 2026 |
+5.09% |
+7.44% |
+19.72% |
+39.28% |
| Q1 2026 |
+0.35% |
+6.36% |
+4.16% |
+17.86% |
| Q4 2025 |
+6.17% |
+0.24% |
-12.08% |
-3.03% |
| Q3 2025 |
+13% |
-1.65% |
-8.12% |
-11.8% |
On average, shares moved 0.92% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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