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Live: Will ServiceNow Disappoint in Q3 Earnings Tonight After 4% Intraday Drop?

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 28, 3:07pm ET · Published Oct 28, 3:08pm ET

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What ServiceNow Needs to Deliver in Tonight's Q3 Earnings

ServiceNow is scheduled to report its Q3 2026 earnings today at 4:10 PM ET, with investors looking for evidence that its growing AI business can support its premium valuation.

Management previously guided for $3.975-$3.980 billion in subscription revenue, although comparisons could be complicated by federal on-premise revenue shifting into the previous quarter.

ServiceNow’s AI business recently surpassed $1 billion in annual contract value, making continued adoption of its agentic AI products a major focus tonight.

Another important metric will be current remaining performance obligations (cRPO), with management guiding for 19.5% growth, compared to 21% last quarter.

With NOW trading at around 99x earnings, expectations remain high. Strong subscription growth and AI adoption could reinforce the company’s ambitious long-term targets, while disappointing contract growth could raise fresh concerns about the software industry.

This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.

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The story so far

ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW | NOW Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results today at 4:10 PM ET. Shares are down 3.77% today, but up 11.12% over the past month, so the bar is higher for a quarter where management guided cRPO growth lower.

NOW price target

Federal Windfall Meets a Harder Comparison

ServiceNow beat on both revenue and earnings in Q2. EPS came in at $0.90 against a $0.8564 consensus, and revenue rose 24.0% to $3.987B. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 29.5%, which was 300 basis points above guidance.

The stock gained 19.72% in the week after that report. Even so, shares are still down 1.63% year to date and 20.37% over the past year. Management raised full-year subscription guidance to $15.76 to $15.78 million. The CFO called the federal shift “simply about timing.”

Acquisitions are weighing on GAAP results. GAAP subscription gross margin fell to 73.5% from 80% as amortization of purchased intangible assets rose.

NOW earnings explorer

ServiceNow’s Consensus Estimates

Metric Q3 2026 Estimate YoY Change FY 2026 Estimate FY 2027 Estimate
Revenue $4.09B +20.2% $16.22B $19.28B
EPS (Normalized) $1.02 +6.1% $4.07 $5.00

Expected revenue growth of about 20% is below Q2’s 24.0% rate, which is consistent with the federal timing shift. EPS growth trails revenue growth (YoY comparisons against split-adjusted Q3 2025 EPS of $0.964) because guided operating margin of 31% sits below last year’s 33.5%. Q3 EPS estimates have barely changed in 90 days, moving from $1.0255 to $1.0231.

What to Watch Tonight: AI Monetization, Federal Timing and Margins

Here are some of the top items to watch for in ServiceNow’s earnings report tonight:

  1. AI conversion. I’ll be watching whether AI net new ACV continues growing after rising “over 40% quarter-over-quarter” in Q2. Management says it is ahead of its target of AI reaching 30% of ACV by 2030. AI-native SKU upgrades are bringing price increases of 20% to 30%.
  2. Federal follow-through. Last quarter, ServiceNow’s CEO, Bill McDermott, explained the strength of the company’s government sector: “Has the government business weakened? It’s never been stronger.” Q3 is usually the biggest federal quarter, so it should indicate whether the Q2 pull-forward drained the pipeline or whether demand from the Air Force and Armis-driven security deals fills the gap.
  3. Gross margin. Management noted short-term pressure from greater AI consumption and hyperscaler costs. Analysts will compare those comments against full-year guidance for an 81% non-GAAP subscription gross margin.
  4. Cybersecurity scale. The CEO pointed to a “$1 billion-plus cybersecurity business.” Investors will be listening for updates on how the Armis and Veza integrations are going and on early adoption of the new conversational service desk.

ServiceNow’s Earnings History

Quarter EPS Surprise 1-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q2 2026 +5.09% +7.44% +19.72% +39.28%
Q1 2026 +0.35% +6.36% +4.16% +17.86%
Q4 2025 +6.17% +0.24% -12.08% -3.03%
Q3 2025 +13% -1.65% -8.12% -11.8%

On average, shares moved 0.92% seven days after earnings over the past year.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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