SpaceX Insiders Could Sell Nearly 4 Billion Shares. Why Isn’t Wall Street Worried?

3.89 Billion Shares Cleared to Trade in Under Three Months

Through October 26, 2026, approximately 3.89 billion shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) had been released from IPO lockup restrictions across eight unlock events. Add the about 638.9 million shares sold in the June IPO, and the estimated total eligible to trade reaches 4.53 billion shares. All of that supply arrived in less than three months, in a company valued at $1.914 trillion.

This is an estimate. It comes from prospectus-based tracking and measures the maximum number of shares newly eligible for sale. It excludes verified insider sales, and some holders remain subject to Rule 144 restrictions.

What Billions of Unlocked Shares Signal for Shareholders

An unlock gives a holder permission to sell, and every insider still decides whether to use that permission. Affiliates also face limits. Under Rule 144, an affiliate can sell no more than the greater of 1% of outstanding shares or the average weekly trading volume in any three-month period. That cap keeps the largest holders from dumping a full interest at once.

Timing matters too. The schedule was set out in advance, so the market had weeks to prepare for each release. The biggest one, 1.300 billion shares on Oct. 22, was public knowledge long before it happened.

The business those insiders own swung to a profit. Third-quarter revenue came in at $14.60 billion, beating the $13.02 billion consensus by 12.11%. GAAP net income was $4.40 billion, compared with a net loss of $1.10 billion a year earlier. Any holder deciding whether to sell has to consider that against a business that is now profitable.

How SPCX Shares Absorbed the Unlock Wave

On October 22, the stock fell 9.14% on unusually heavy volume, the same day as the largest unlock. The fall also followed the third-quarter earnings report, so other factors may have contributed. By October 27, the stock had recovered to $148.58.

Over the past week, shares moved from $159.31 on Oct. 21 to $143.62, a fall of 9.85%. Over one month, the move is a much smaller 1.27% decline from $145.47. Even with billions of shares newly eligible to trade, the price is close to where it was in late September.

Bull Case: Fundamentals Are Outrunning the Overhang

Wall Street is remaining positive. Of the analysts tracking the stock, 7 rate it a strong buy, 23 a buy, 5 a hold and 3 a sell. The average price target is $256.59.

Results across the business back that up. AI Solutions and Infrastructure revenue reached $7.60 billion, up 830% year over year. Connectivity revenue climbed 69% to $5.20 billion. Starlink consumer subscribers rose to 13.6 million, and consumer monthly revenue per user improved 5% sequentially to $69. Enterprise and government revenue grew 91%. The balance sheet is strong as well: cash stood at $93.52 billion as of the second-quarter report, along with a $47.50 billion backlog.

The stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of about 72x. Share-based compensation linked to the Cursor acquisition came to $1.2 billion in the quarter, and spending on computing infrastructure is heavy. Still, the growth rates give investors evidence that the business can grow into its valuation.

Bottom Line for Long-Term Holders

The 3.89 billion figure shows how much stock could come to market. Actual insider sales are tracked separately through reported transactions. Several catalysts are ahead: the 800 MHz spectrum deal for Starlink Mobile is expected to close in the first half of 2027, the COLOSSUS II expansion is expanding computing capacity to 1.7 GW, and Starbase Louisiana is targeting its first launch in 2029. For now, profits and subscriber growth carry more weight with investors than the unlock calendar.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.