Trash Pays: Can Waste Management Keep Raising Its Dividend for Decades?
Waste Management has raised its dividend every year since 2009, and the cash keeps flowing in, but a quiet volume problem is building beneath the surface that could force a reckoning for income investors counting on decades more of raises.
A retired person who owned Waste Management (NYSE:WM | WM Price Prediction) in 2024 collected $0.75 per share each quarter. In 2025, that check rose to $0.825. In 2026, it is $0.945. The company’s dividend history shows the quarterly payout has risen every year since 2009, and third-quarter results filed October 27, 2026 show the cash engine behind that streak is growing.
Free Cash Flow Covers the Dividend More Than 2.6 Times
WM generated $985M of free cash flow in the third quarter, up 20.71% year over year. Through nine months, free cash flow topped $3 billion, up more than 42%, while dividends paid totaled $1.14 billion. That is coverage of roughly 2.6 times. On the earnings call, finance chief David Reed laid out where the rest went:
“We allocated more than 90% of that free cash flow to shareholder returns during the first nine months of the year, repurchasing $1.58 billion of our shares and paying $1.14 billion in dividends.”
Management expects full-year free cash flow at the high end of its $3.75–$3.85B range, against roughly $1.5B in planned 2026 dividends.
Trash Pickup Hands WM Real Pricing Power
Waste collection is an essential service, and the numbers show it. Core price rose 5.8% in the quarter. An energy surcharge program recovers fuel costs with an approximately one-month lag, and operations chief Tara Hemmer said higher landfill costs, including those tied to new California legislation, can be passed through to customers. CEO Jim Fish summarized the quarter:
“The company grew operating EBITDA by 5.8%, grew revenue by 6.3%, continued to reduce our SG&A down to 9.3%, maintained operating EBITDA margins at 31% in the face of strong headwinds from fuel, and grew free cash flow by 20%.”
A Balance Sheet Sitting Inside the Target Zone
WM ended the quarter at 2.92 times leverage, inside its 2.5 to 3 times target. About 90% of its interest-rate exposure is fixed, a useful buffer after interest expense climbed to $912M in fiscal 2025 from $598M. The stock trades at $228.36, up 326.5% over ten years.
How Republic Services and GFL Stack Up
Republic Services (NYSE:RSG) runs the same strategy at a smaller scale. It pays $0.670 quarterly after an approximately 7% raise and guides to $2.540–$2.575 billion of adjusted free cash flow.
GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL) sits on the growth side of the trade. Acquisitions drove 18.7% of third-quarter revenue growth, net leverage rose to 3.8x, and second-quarter dividends totaled just C$8.4 million. CEO Patrick Dovigi added an update:
“During the third quarter, we formed a Special Committee of independent directors to review unsolicited inbound proposals to take the Company private.”
For income seekers, WM offers the lower leverage and the longer verified raise record of the three.
Leadership Handoff, a Verdict and One Risk to Track
Fish retires in early January, passing the job to President John Morris, who indicated continuity:
“There are not going to be any big shifts. We’ve all worked together for a long time and built this strategy collectively.”
Verdict: With free cash flow covering the payout more than twice, leverage on target, and pricing running ahead of costs, WM looks equipped to keep raising its dividend for years. The risk to track is volume. Collection and Disposal volume fell 0.4% in the third quarter, full-year volume is tracking near negative 1%, and management named volume growth as the main uncertainty for 2027 margins. If shrinking volumes start to outrun price increases, future raises could get smaller.
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Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.
His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.
When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.
