Super Micro Computer (SMCI) heads into tonight’s Q1 earnings report under enormous pressure, with shares down 28.18% over the past month as investors question the company’s margins, execution, and corporate governance.
Wall Street expects $16.26 billion in revenue, above management’s own guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion. Here are the key numbers to watch:
The biggest question is whether Super Micro can translate booming AI infrastructure demand into sustainable profits.
With shares trading at roughly 9x earnings, the stock carries a steep valuation discount. Strong revenue, positive cash flow, and a reassuring update on the Board review could help restore confidence.
Bottom Line: After a 28% monthly selloff, investors want proof that margins, execution, and governance are moving in the right direction.
This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI | SMCI Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal first-quarter 2027 results at 4:05 PM ET tonight. This is the first check on its $65.0-$72.0 billion full-year sales outlook, and the stock heads into it after a sharp monthly decline.
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.70, well ahead of the $0.96 consensus. Revenue of $11.12B missed the $11.56B estimate. Management blamed customer-side delays in power, cooling, and networking and described the miss as a timing issue.
Non-GAAP gross margin rose to 17.6% from 10.1% in Q3. Management credited about 75% of that gain to a better mix, including contracts that were pushed into later quarters. The rest came from lower tariff costs and smaller inventory reserves, and management called the reserve benefit nonrecurring. Operating cash flow became positive at $747 million after a $6.6 billion outflow the quarter before.
Shares trade at $31.38, down 39.61% over the past year.
| Metric | Q1 FY2027 Estimate | YoY Change | FY2027 Estimate | FY2028 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.26B | +223.8% | $70.27B | $81.69B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $1.2346 | +252.7% | $4.7471 | $5.6789 |
Consensus EPS sits above the company’s $1.01 to $1.10 non-GAAP guidance. Analysts made 12 upward revisions in the past week. They appear to be counting on last quarter’s deferred revenue landing now. The FY2028 consensus moves close to the $80 billion level that the CEO said could require more cash.
Here are some of the top items to watch in SMCI’s Q1 earnings tonight:
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-of Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | +77.55% | +19.02% | -2.74% | -2.31% |
| Q3 FY2026 | +34.51% | +24.54% | -7.67% | +26.92% |
| Q2 FY2026 | +41.42% | +13.78% | -5.09% | -5.27% |
| Q1 FY2026 | -10.07% | -6.6% | -18.1% | -26.81% |
On average, shares moved -8.4% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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