Live: Is AMD About to Smash Q2 Earnings After Rising 8% Today?
AMD surged nearly 8% today on a 140% year-to-date run, and tonight CEO Lisa Su faces a Wall Street that has 42 buy ratings, zero sells, and a bar set almost impossibly high. Whether…
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Live: Will AMD Crush Q3 Earnings Tonight After a 4% Intraday Pop?
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Newest firstAMD Plunged 23% in the Past Month. Will Q3 Earnings Tonight Spark a Rally?
AMD reports earnings tonight following a brutal 22.65% decline over the past month, putting enormous pressure on management to deliver an encouraging outlook for its AI business.
Wall Street expects $13.08 billion in revenue, slightly above the midpoint of AMD’s own guidance. Here are the key catalysts to watch:
- Revenue Estimate: $13.08 billion
- Helios AI Rack Shipments: Expected to begin this quarter
- 2027 Data Center Outlook: Revenue expected to more than double
- Long-Term EPS Target: Above $20
AMD trades at roughly 176x trailing earnings, leaving little room for disappointment if its ambitious AI growth targets slip.
The launch of its Helios rack-scale AI systems could be a major catalyst. Investors will be watching closely for shipment timelines, customer demand, and management’s confidence in its 2027 growth trajectory.
Bottom Line: A successful Helios ramp and strong 2027 guidance could help reverse AMD’s recent selloff, while any delays could put additional pressure on shares.
This article is updated throughout the trading day. Check back for more.
Full Coverage
The story so farAMD (NASDAQ:AMD | AMD Price Prediction) is expected to report third-quarter results at 4:15 PM ET after the bell tonight. The stock is up 128.96% year-to-date, but a sharp 27% one-month slide makes this report a confidence test for the company’s Helios ramp.
Record Profits Meet a Sharp Pullback
In the second quarter, AMD’s revenue rose 50.1% to $11.54 billion, beating the $11.31 billion consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 exceeded the $1.61 estimate. Data Center sales jumped 107% to $6.72 billion, or 58% of total revenue.
Profitability moved even faster. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 27% from 12% a year earlier, while gross margin reached 56%. CEO Lisa Su said AMD will “enter the second half with strong momentum as EPYC demand accelerates, Instinct deployments scale and Helios begins to ramp.”
AMD is up 4% intraday ahead of tonight’s Q3 earnings results.
AMD’s Consensus Estimates Point to Accelerating Growth
| Metric | Q3 2026 Estimate | YoY Change | FY 2026 Estimate | FY 2027 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.08B | +41.5% | $50.99B | $89.36B |
| EPS (Normalized) | $1.94 | +61.4% | $7.62 | $15.91 |
The quarterly EPS estimate has risen from $1.86 90 days ago, with zero downward revisions over the past 30 days. The 2027 revenue estimate means roughly 75% growth, yet 2027 EPS forecasts span $9.60 to $23.66. That spread shows how much rides on Helios execution.
What to Watch Tonight: Helios, EPYC Supply and Margins
Here are some of the top factors I’m watching with AMD’s Q3 earnings report tonight:
- Helios timing. Su described the rollout clearly: “Q3 is the very beginning of the ramp. Q4 is a step-up, and then Q1 will be a further step up.” I’ll be watching whether customer pull remains “tracking ahead of our initial forecast” across OpenAI, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Anthropic.
- Server CPU conversion. EPYC sales grew by more than 70% last quarter despite tight supply. Key areas to watch include Venice production updates and whether AMD reiterates server growth of more than 80% in the second half.
- Gross margin mix. AMD guided to about 56%, but data center AI runs slightly below the corporate average during the ramp. I want to hear how Helios yields are trending.
- Consumer drag. The company guided to a significant double-digit decline in gaming and a softer PC market linked to memory costs.
- Operating leverage. With opex guided near $3.65 billion, investors will be watching whether expense growth remains below revenue growth.
AMD’s Earnings History Shows Volatile Reactions
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | +3.06% | +1.5% | +0.18% | -0.93% |
| Q1 2026 | +5.88% | -3.07% | +5.72% | +16.36% |
| Q4 2025 | +15.98% | -3.84% | +6.69% | +1.24% |
| Q3 2025 | +2.37% | -7.27% | +1% | -13.74% |
On average, shares moved 3.4% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
