Nvidia Is $2 Away From Falling Below $200 for the First Time Since July
Nvidia has held the $200 line for months while rivals like AMD and Marvell collapsed around it, but with earnings weeks away and a flood of new Wall Street paper threatening chip valuations, that floor is getting thinner.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) shares closed at $202.06, about $2 above $200, giving the company a valuation of $4.88 trillion. Melius Research’s new target of $315 is about 56% above that close.
The stock fell $2.58, or 1.26%, on the session. At the regular close, it sat $2.06 above $200, roughly 1% of the way there. The after-hours quote of $203.80 increased that gap to $3.80.
The $200 level matters to traders because Nvidia has not closed below $200 since July 30.
The business points the other way. Revenue rose 106% last quarter, yet the shares trade at about 17 times forward earnings, a multiple more typical of companies growing far more slowly.
Nvidia next reports earnings on November 17.
Nvidia Keeps Testing $200 Without Breaking It
Monday’s close was the lowest since July 31, when the stock finished at $200.75. The last close under $200 came a day earlier, at $195.04.
The stock did trade below $200 after that. On August 3, it opened at $197.69 and touched $196.85 before it closed at $206.64.
The recent tests have been close. Friday’s low was $200.92, and Monday’s low was $201.66.
Monday began well, with an intraday high of $209.98 before the reversal. The S&P 500 fell about 0.47% on the day.
A $900 Billion Drawdown Hit the Whole Chip Group
Nvidia is 15.5% below its October 6 record close of $239.24 and 17.0% below the $243.37 intraday high set that day. The decline has erased roughly $900 billion of market value.
Shares fell 4.22% Friday during a chip selloff and lost 10.4% in October from the September 30 close of $228.38. The stock is still up 8.3% in 2026 from $186.50.
Peers fell harder. Rival chipmaker AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) dropped 7.52% Monday and 26.36% over a month. Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) lost 12.72% Monday and 37.04% over a month.
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) fell 1.18% Monday. This looks like a sector repricing, and Nvidia has held up better than the more volatile names.
Melius Trimmed the Target Over a Flood of Paper
Melius lowered its Nvidia target to $315 from $420 and kept its Buy rating. It also cut targets on AMD, Broadcom and Marvell.
The firm warned that “multiples may remain under pressure as the buildout will feature more backstops throughout 2028.” It said “at least 5 trillion-dollar plus companies” have to issue hundreds of billions in securities, and added: “The amount of paper is so large it has become the primary risk.”
Nvidia’s biggest customers fund data centers by selling new stock and debt, and the suppliers of power, cooling and networking inside those buildings benefit whether or not the chip multiples hold (we rounded up seven of those non-chip AI infrastructure names in a free report). Investors taking up that new paper demand higher returns, which can push down valuations even while chip orders stay strong.
The broader Street is still bullish, with 10 analysts at Strong Buy, 49 at Buy, 2 at Hold and 1 at Sell, with an average target of $328.95. Targets are opinions, though, and the Melius cut shows how quickly they can move.
What the November 17 Report Must Deliver
Nvidia reports on Tuesday, November 17, with a call at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET), for the quarter that ended October 25.
Guidance calls for revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, and a gross margin of 74%, plus or minus 50 basis points. That outlook assumes no data center compute revenue from China.
Last quarter, revenue was $96.2 billion, and data center revenue rose 117% to $89 billion.
Margins remain the main pressure point, because management expects gross margin to bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter because memory prices keep rising, so what it says about pricing matters as much as revenue.
Why Nvidia’s Valuation Looks Too Low Ahead of Earnings
Nvidia looks undervalued here. At about 26 times trailing and 17 times forward earnings, the stock already prices in a lot of bad news for a company guiding to another record quarter.
A forward multiple falls when earnings rise faster than the share price. That has happened here, because profits kept climbing while the stock gave back its October gains.
The path higher needs a quarter that beats guidance, steady margin commentary, and more evidence that supply is what limits growth. Management has said it expects fiscal 2028 revenue to grow about 70%.
The issue Melius noted could hold multiples down, and China is outside guidance as both possible upside and ongoing uncertainty. A close below $200 would likely bring more short-term selling.
AMD and Marvell fell harder, while Nvidia’s position looks stronger. Nvidia already has guidance in hand, and trades at a forward multiple that already reflects the financing concerns.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
