This AI Infrastructure Stock Is Flying Under the Radar
Marvell has already tripled this year while most investors are still focused elsewhere, and the company just locked in a deal with Google that could reshape its entire revenue mix. The question is whether the stock's sky-high multiple leaves room…
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Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) trades at $261.94. The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $283.21 means 8.12% upside over the next 12 months. A buy rating comes with high confidence.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $261.94 |
| Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. | $283.21 |
| Upside | 8.12% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Marvell has a market value of about $235.4 billion. Management raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to around $12 billion and expects about 50% growth in fiscal 2028. Investor Day on October 6, 2026 should clear up that path.
Accelerating Data Center Sales Fuel a Triple-Digit Rally
Shares rose 7.24% last week and 6.86% over the past month. That brings the year-to-date gain to 208.68%, yet the stock remains around 20.6% shy of its $329.80 52-week high.
In the August earnings report, revenue came in at $2.739 billion, up 36.5% and ahead of the $2.707 billion consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 beat the $0.9289 estimate.
Data Center sales rose 46% and now make up 79% of revenue. Marvell also expanded its custom silicon deal with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) unit Google. The deal includes a warrant that lets Google acquire up to 7% of Marvell shares as revenue milestones are met.
Why Bulls See a Path Well Past Our Target
For Q3, management guides revenue to $3.15 billion, representing more than 50% growth year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.10 ±$0.05. Custom revenue should more than double in fiscal 2028, aiming “$10 billion kind of plus number” by fiscal 2029.
CEO Matt Murphy noted “AI-related bookings remain exceptionally robust.” Non-GAAP operating margin was 36.6% last quarter and should reach 38% to 40% in fiscal Q4. Analyst ratings: 8 Strong Buys, 31 Buys, 5 Holds. Bull case reaches $353.74, a 35.05% return.
Customer Concentration Could Stall the Rally
A few hyperscalers account for most of Marvell’s sales, and those customers could move chip design in-house. Supply of wafers and substrates is tight, China trade restrictions remain in place, and long-term debt stands at $4.963 billion. Stock-based compensation rose to $207.6 million in Q1 from $142.1 million a year earlier. The bear case sits at $217.32, a 17.03% drop.
There are offsets. Net debt is just 0.27x EBITDA. Much of the gap between 16.8% GAAP and 36.6% non-GAAP operating margin comes from costs linked to the Celestial AI and XConn acquisitions. Both deals feed the scale-up optics roadmap.
Marvell Carries a Richer Multiple Than Broadcom, NVIDIA and AMD
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) competes directly for hyperscaler custom accelerator and AI networking business. The stock changes hands at 19x forward earnings with 85.5% revenue growth, making Marvell’s premium look expensive.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is the AI data center benchmark and a Marvell partner on NVLink Fusion. The stock commands 25x forward earnings on 105.9% growth.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) serves as the AI compute contrast. The stock gets 40x with 50.1% growth, a profile closer to Marvell’s.
Marvell’s forward multiple is the highest in this group. Our model leaned on forward earnings and came in below analyst consensus because the 24/7 Wall St. price target assumes the multiple does not expand.
| Company | Forward P/E | Revenue Growth (YoY) |
|---|---|---|
| Marvell | 62x | 36.5% |
| Broadcom | 19x | 85.5% |
| NVIDIA | 25x | 105.9% |
| AMD | 40x | 50.1% |
Custom Silicon Visibility Tips the Scale Toward Upside
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $283.21 carries a buy rating at 90% confidence. Management has raised guidance in back-to-back quarters, and the Google agreement supports the custom ramp.
The bull case strengthens if Investor Day confirms custom revenue “a lot larger than anybody’s been modeling so far.” The bear case gains traction if supply limits cap Q3 growth or a major customer takes design work in-house. For now, Marvell’s growth justifies its premium.
| Year | Base Case | Bull Case |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $257.00 | $272.21 |
| 2027 | $285.93 | $348.12 |
| 2028 | $304.82 | $383.16 |
| 2029 | $321.12 | $471.41 |
| 2030 | $329.04 | $493.90 |
These estimates assume Marvell keeps executing on custom silicon. Changes in hyperscaler spending could move results sharply in either direction.
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Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
