Live Live update #4

AAOI Traders Brace for a Massive Earnings Surprise Tonight

From live coverage: Live: Will Applied Optoelectronics Disappoint With Q3 Earnings Tonight After 18% Intraday Plunge?
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics

Options positioning


Put/call 0.76Balanced
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
279.5%
Expiry
Fri, Nov 6chain as of Wed, Nov 4

At-the-money implied volatility of 279.5% on the $61 strike into Friday expiration says the options market expects tonight's report to move this stock violently in either direction. The 0.76 put/call ratio leans call-heavy overall, yet open interest is stacked on the put side right at the money, with 846 puts versus 106 calls at $60: read directly, that is hedging or downside positioning after the 60% monthly slide, though crowded protection at a single strike can just as easily fuel a squeeze if the 1.6T ramp lands.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $58

    99 / 1

  • $59

    122 / 1

  • $60

    846 / 106

  • $61

    188 / 1

  • $62

    292 / 42

  • $63

    260 / 39

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

More From This Coverage

Newest first

Applied Optoelectronics' Q3 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up

Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of AAOI’s Q3 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Top Hedge Funds Betting Big on AAOI Now

Thomas Richmond
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics

Tracked 13F positioning

4:10pm ET

$94Macross 8 tracked filers
1 added · 4 trimmed · 3 exited

  • Marshall Wace LLP

    $27M—

  • Balyasny Asset Management LP

    $26M-0.6%

  • Millennium Management LLC

    $19M+0.3%

  • Tudor Investment Corp

    $9M—

  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc

    $6M-1.0%

  • Brevan Howard

    $3M—

  • Two Sigma Investments LLC

    $3M-0.9%

  • Maverick Capital Ltd

    $620K-0.7%

+ 3 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Positioning was already thinning before tonight: as of June 30, four of our eight tracked filers had trimmed and three had exited, with D. E. Shaw and Two Sigma cutting more than 90% of their share counts and only Millennium adding. That leaves roughly $94 million disclosed across the tracked set, concentrated in Marshall Wace and Balyasny. These positions are about 45 days stale by the time of this report, so current holders into the 1.6T shipment question remain unknown.

Applied Optoelectronics Q3 Earnings at a Glance

Thomas Richmond
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics

Q3 2026

4:10pm ET

EPS
$0.17
est $0.14
+18.6%

Revenue
$270M
est $268M
+0.7%

Datacenter revenue of $155.6 million pushed Applied Optoelectronics to its first GAAP profit in years on 800G and 1.6T transceiver demand. Q4 guidance of $385 million to $420 million comes with a new multi-year agreement with a Tier 1 hyperscaler.

AAOI Q3 Earnings Are Out - Stock Drops 8% as Q4 Guidance Disappoints

Thomas Richmond

Applied Optoelectronics just reported Q3 earnings, with shares initially down 8% despite beating Wall Street’s expectations. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $269.9M vs. $268M expected (+128% YoY)
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.17 vs. $0.14 expected
  • Gross Margin: 28.7% (non-GAAP)

Q4 Guidance:

  • Revenue: $385M–$420M vs. $427M expected
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.48–$0.63 vs. $0.56 expected
  • Gross Margin: 29.5%–31% (non-GAAP)

Quick Read:

Q3 beat, but Q4 revenue guidance disappoints. Even the high end of management’s outlook falls short of expectations.

AI demand is driving explosive growth, with revenue up 128%, but investors remain concerned about production capacity and execution.

AAOI's Revenue Has Nearly Tripled, But There's Still One Big Problem

Thomas Richmond
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics

Margin story · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:46pm ET

Gross
27.7%-2.6pp YoY
Operating
-12.9%+2.6pp YoY
Net
-11.9%-3.1pp YoY

Revenue nearly tripled from $65 million in Q3 2024 to $192 million in Q2 2026, yet gross margin slipped to 27.7% and the operating margin widened back to -12.9%, leaving profitability still dependent on more than scale. That makes product mix on tonight's report the number that matters: a 1.6T ramp that lifts revenue without lifting gross margin leaves the loss line intact.

Operating margin by quarter

-4.99%-15.9%-26.9%

Applied Optoelectronics: Key Takeaways From Last Quarter

Thomas Richmond
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics

Last quarter — Q2 2026

3:25pm ET

EPS
$0.06vs $0.01 est +300.0%
Revenue
$192Mvs $190M est +0.8%

Q2 showed Applied Optoelectronics can convert hyperscaler demand into actual profit, with the datacenter mix carrying margins. That makes tonight's report a question of shipments: investors want proof the 1.6T order moved out the door in the quarter, which is exactly what the 60% one-month slide flagged this afternoon is pricing against.

next print Thu, Nov 5

Analysts' Top Questions for AAOI Ahead of Q3 Earnings Tonight

Thomas Richmond
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics

Call preview · Q3 2026

3:20pm ET

Thu, Nov 5
Earnings call · after close

Hyperscale customer traction and the 800G/1.6T ramp have come up on all four of the last four calls, and tonight the question is whether management confirms 1.6T shipments against the $200 million-plus order flagged earlier today. Gross margin and product mix, now a question three calls running, is the second tell, since the mix shift decides whether the ramp actually earns anything.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
  • 800G and 1.6T transceiver ramp
  • Vertical integration and laser supply
  • Capacity expansion and manufacturing
  • Hyperscale customer traction
  • Gross margin and product mix
  • CATV segment outlook

Applied Optoelectronics Crashes 60% in a Month - Will Tonight's Q3 Earnings Send it Lower?

Thomas Richmond

Applied Optoelectronics heads into tonight’s earnings report with enormous expectations and a stock that’s plunged 60% in just one month.

The biggest question is whether the company has begun shipping its next-generation 1.6T optical products to a major hyperscaler, following plans to start fulfilling a $200 million-plus order late in the third quarter.

Key Numbers to Watch:

  • Q3 EPS Estimate: $0.14, compared with management’s guidance of $0.11 to $0.26.
  • 2026 Revenue Outlook: Approximately $1.1 billion.
  • 2027 EPS Estimate: $4.60, reflecting expectations for massive earnings growth.
  • Share Count: 92.8 million assumed, highlighting dilution concerns.

Why It Matters:

Applied Optoelectronics is priced for enormous growth, but investors have clearly lost confidence in the near-term execution story.

Confirmation that 1.6T shipments are underway, alongside a clear capacity expansion timeline, could help restore that confidence. Any further delays or margin pressure could make an already brutal sell-off even worse.

View the full live blog (9 updates) →