Palantir Just Had Its Best Growth Quarter Ever. Why Are Investors Selling?
Palantir just posted the fastest revenue growth in its public company history, yet investors are selling the stock. Understanding what spooked the market reveals a tension between two very different stories buried inside the same earnings report.
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Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR | PLTR Price Prediction) just grew revenue 96%, the fastest rate in its history as a public company. Shares still slipped to $169 in premarket trading, 5.24% below Monday’s $178.34 close. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Palantir is $209.79, or 17.63% above that close.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price (Nov. 2 Close) | $178.34 |
| Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. | $209.79 |
| Upside | 17.63% |
| Model Signal | BUY |
| Confidence | 90% |
Our model’s confidence is high. The selling has more to do with valuation and contract terms than with demand.
Palantir trades at 252 times trailing earnings, and management said several eight-figure deals were “shorter in duration than usual.” We still expect fundamentals to pull the stock higher over the next 12 months.
A Record Quarter Runs Into a Familiar Sell-the-News Pattern
Q3 revenue came in at $2.313 billion, ahead of estimates of $2.181 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.44 against a $0.4072 consensus. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 148% to $984 million and exceeded U.S. government revenue for the first time. Full-year guidance rose to $8.530 billion to $8.534 billion.
The market had already priced in most of the good news. Palantir hit a record close on October 9, then lost 15.01% over the past week. It is down 10.46% over the past month and 4.92% year to date. The 52-week range runs from $106.37 to $212.94.
A few details also cooled enthusiasm. Remaining performance obligations were flat sequentially at $4.9 billion, and government bookings grew just 6%.
Why Bulls See $225 and Beyond
Net dollar retention climbed to 165%, and pilot programs are becoming into large contracts quickly. One athletic brand went from a $1.6 million trial to a deal worth roughly $21 million in annual contract value.
Management expects $4.8 billion to $5.0 billion in adjusted free cash flow this year. Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock and Barclays started coverage in October. Morningstar raised its fair value estimate after the report today. The bull case is $225.56.
What Could Keep Palantir Stuck Near $175
Stock-based compensation rose to $318.9 million from $172.3 million a year earlier. Accounts receivable reached $1.883 billion, up from $1.042 billion at the end of 2025. At 80 times forward earnings, any slowdown would hit the stock hard.
On the plus side, GAAP net income hit $1.128 billion, a 49% margin, and receivables are climbing alongside revenue that nearly doubled. The bear case is $175.57.
Palantir Outgrows Snowflake and ServiceNow by a Wide Margin
Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) competes with Palantir for enterprise data and AI budgets. Revenue grew 35.09%, and the stock trades at 91 times free cash flow, compared with 195 for Palantir. Snowflake still loses money on a GAAP basis, which helps explain why Palantir earns the higher multiple.
ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) is the agentic-AI platform comparison. Its stock plunged 24% after it beat and raised in October, as slowing forward bookings renewed AI disruption fears. ServiceNow grew revenue 20.52%. Next to both peers, our target looks reasonable for a company growing far faster than either.
| Company | Latest Revenue Growth | Latest GAAP Operating Income |
|---|---|---|
| Palantir | 95.87% | $1.085B |
| Snowflake | 35.09% | -$263.0M |
| ServiceNow | 20.52% | $385M |
Our Model Still Favors the Bulls at $209.79
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $209.79 carries 90% model confidence. What tips the scale for me is raised guidance on top of accelerating U.S. commercial growth.
The outlook improves if shorter Sovereign AI contracts expand the way management says they will. The outlook weakens if remaining performance obligations stay flat for another quarter. In my view, the drop shows a adjustment in expectations while the business keeps strengthening.
Palantir Price Prediction 2026-2030
Here is where our model projects Palantir could trade further out if current growth trends and market conditions hold.
| Year | Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $177.27 |
| 2027 | $209.79 |
| 2028 | $240.79 |
| 2029 | $264.18 |
| 2030 | $284.23 |
These projections assume Palantir keeps executing on its current strategy. Faster Sovereign AI adoption could drive results higher, while multiple compression could pull them lower.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
