Applied Digital Is Still Down 39% in the Past Month: Is APLD Stock Hopeless or Ready for a Rebound?

The AI data center selloff has hit builders and chip renters alike, and Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD) sits near the center of it. Applied Digital stock is down 39% over the past month to $15.48 in afternoon trading. The stock is up 9% from Thursday’s close, a partial rebound after it fell to a 52-week low in Thursday’s session as Texas’s governor-elect pledged to halt new data center approvals.

At issue is whether Applied Digital’s month of losses reflects broken fundamentals or a sector-wide repricing of AI buildouts funded with debt, since strong quarterly results haven’t stopped the slide and the stock has fallen alongside nearly every name in its group.

What Pushed Applied Digital Down Over the Past Month

Applied Digital reported Q1 FY2027 results on October 7 that beat expectations on both lines. Total revenue at Applied Digital reached $341.88 million against a $124.57 million consensus, up 432.4% from a year earlier. Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) results told a harsher story, with the net loss widening on fair-value charges, stock-based pay and rising interest expense.

Selling pressure built through the month as the market rotated away from debt-funded AI infrastructure on concerns about financing costs and capital intensity. The Texas pledge on November 5 added a policy shock, pulling Applied Digital stock lower along with its peers.

How CoreWeave and IREN Compare With Applied Digital

CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) stock is down 50% over the past month to $45.65, a deeper slide than Applied Digital has suffered. Because CoreWeave is one of Applied Digital’s principal customers, pressure on one stock can spill onto the other. Meanwhile, IREN (NASDAQ:IREN) stock is down 49% over the past month to $21.25.

On a November 5 call, IREN co-CEO Daniel Roberts told analysts: “More than $4 billion contracted and fully funded, ramping as the remaining capacity is commissioned.” That message came alongside with Applied Digital’s rebound. Applied Digital has held up better than both peers over the month, a comparison that cuts against the idea that it’s uniquely broken.

Cipher Digital (NASDAQ:CIFR), another former crypto miner now leasing data halls to AI tenants, offers a closer comparison. Among these names, Applied Digital’s model sits closest to Cipher Digital’s, since both build and own powered campuses, then lease them to hyperscalers and AI labs on long contracts without buying the chips inside. As a cloud operator, CoreWeave buys graphics processing units (GPUs) and sells compute, partly from space it leases from developers such as Applied Digital, while IREN, owning land, power and its own GPU cloud, is the most vertically integrated of the three.

Applied Digital’s Bull Case Rests on Where It Builds

Applied Digital’s signed leases total 1,410 megawatts (MW) across North Dakota, Louisiana and Alabama. The company’s only Texas project is a planned 50 MW site in Briscoe County, so a Texas pause doesn’t threaten its leased campuses. Those leases carry about $36 billion of contracted revenue over initial base terms.

Applied Digital CEO Wes Cummins spoke in an October 7 release. He framed tighter rules elsewhere as an advantage: “Put simply, we view every new restriction elsewhere as making what we already own harder to replicate.” Management also expects expansion leases to carry materially higher pricing than earlier deals. More than 600 MW set to enter service over the next 12 months. The powered-campus owners are one slice of the AI buildout trade (we covered seven of the picks-and-shovels names behind it, from power to cooling, in a free report you can grab here).

Debt Sits at the Heart of Applied Digital’s Bear Case

Applied Digital’s total debt reached $6.48 billion by August 31, against $2.95 billion of cash and equivalents. During that quarter, the company’s interest expense of $77.4 million exceeded its $65.8 million of base rent. Wes Cummins has noted roughly 800 MW still needs financing within 12 months.

Pricing on that next debt round matters, since Applied Digital’s June notes paid 7%, well below the coupon on notes it sold in November 2025. Higher rates could hand more of the company’s rent to lenders.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has a view. He expects “the data center pause to continue and any data center potential legislation to remain in gridlock.” Even with every leased campus outside Texas, Applied Digital stock fell alongside the group, a sign that sector sentiment drives the shares.

Applied Digital’s Rebound Case Hinges on Cheaper Money

The interest rate on Applied Digital’s next debt deal will be a key test for the company. Applied Digital’s upcoming earnings report will show whether base rent is starting to outrun interest expense as new capacity comes online. Texas policy is the third variable for the company, and traders can watch for any step that turns the governor-elect’s pledge into formal rules.

Bulls see contracted revenue, hyperscaler tenants and leased campuses outside the Texas fight, with the stock well below where it stood a month ago. For the bears, interest costs that already exceed base rent and a large financing need leave Applied Digital exposed if credit tightens. A conservative investment approach could make sense until Applied Digital’s next financing round concludes.

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