America’s AI Spending Boom Just Crossed a Staggering $1 Trillion Milestone
Record shipments of AI hardware are pouring into American data centers, yet NVIDIA's stock has dropped more than 21% in a month. What does the import data reveal that the share price refuses to show, and who else profits?
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One Number: A $1.04 Trillion Annual Pace for Hardware Imports
America is now importing computers, computer accessories, and semiconductors at a pace of roughly $1.04 trillion a year. That run rate comes from September 2026, when U.S. imports in those categories rose $12.1 billion to $86.9 billion, according to The Kobeissi Letter. It was the second-largest monthly increase on record, trailing July’s $14.7 billion jump.
The $1.04 trillion figure is an annualized run rate built from one month of reported trade data, and it holds only if September’s pace continues for a full year. It measures how fast the expansion is moving, and that speed has no precedent. September imports rose 151% year over year. Annual growth during the dot-com boom peaked at 34%. Since the start of 2024, imports in these categories have more than quadrupled.
What It Means for NVIDIA
Those servers, accelerators, and networking gear end up in data centers, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) stands at the center of that order book. In fiscal Q2 2027, NVIDIA posted revenue of $96.22 billion, ahead of the $92.07 billion estimate and up 105.8% year over year. Data Center revenue reached $89.02 billion, up 117%. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 75.0% from 72.5%, so NVIDIA is gaining pricing power as its volumes grow.
Management expects the spending to keep rising. On the August 26, 2026 earnings call, NVIDIA addressed spending. Capital spending by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027, with the cloud industry backlog at greater than $2 trillion. CEO Jensen Huang put the gap between orders and output clearly: “Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%.”
The demand runs well beyond GPUs:
- For Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), AI semiconductor revenue 221% grew to $16.70 billion.
- Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) ended its quarter with a record $95.00 billion AI backlog.
- Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) said more than 75% of its fiscal 2027 shipments are committed.
- Vertiv (NYSE:VRT) reported organic orders growth of over 100%.
- CoreWeave carries a revenue backlog of roughly $104B.
Those five names are the shape of the AI trade most investors miss: the power, networking, memory, and server plumbing behind every GPU. We highlighted seven infrastructure suppliers riding this same expansion in a free report on the stocks powering the AI boom that aren’t chipmakers.
The trade data shows the same pattern. Capital-goods imports hit a record $158 billion in September, and economists estimate computers, accessories, and semiconductors made up roughly 61% of the monthly trade deficit.
Why NVIDIA Shares Are Slipping Despite Record Demand
NVIDIA shares have moved against the trend in the hardware data. The stock closed at $186.64 on November 6, 2026, down 21.4% over the past month and 8.8% over the past week. Shares rose 2.78% in the most recent session and are up 0.31% year to date.
Bull Case: Demand Is Outrunning Supply
NVIDIA trades at a forward P/E of 13. Its trailing P/E of 23 is a modest price for a company that has beat revenue estimates for 6 straight quarters. Its sales per gigawatt keep rising: roughly $18 billion with Hopper, $25 billion with Blackwell, and $40 billion with Vera Rubin.
Income investors are getting paid along the way. NVIDIA returned about $26.0B to shareholders in Q2 and has $99.0B left on its buyback authorization.
Among the risks, gross margins are expected to bottom at 71% to 72% in Q4 as memory costs rise. There is no China data center compute revenue in the outlook, and days sales outstanding rose to 60 days. Spending is also moving ahead of proven AI returns, which leaves room for overcapacity if demand fades, but a supply-constrained company with a backlog this deep has room to absorb a slowdown.
What NVIDIA’s Next Earnings Report Must Prove
A $1.04 trillion annual import pace shows the AI expansion has become a physical, measurable flow of equipment into American data centers. NVIDIA’s next earnings report will test its fiscal Q3 guidance. That guidance targets $108.0B ±2% revenue at roughly 74.0% gross margin, with Vera Rubin expected to make up about 20% of Data Center revenue. While the stock has fallen, America is importing AI hardware at a record pace, and most of it is built to run on NVIDIA chips.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
