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Prediction: Nvidia Could Become the World’s First $10 Trillion Company on This Date

Nvidia sits at $5.70 trillion today, but a specific calendar date, a single earnings report, and one supply-constrained growth target could determine whether it crosses a threshold no company has ever reached.

By Vandita Jadeja
Published October 9, 2026, 9:30am ET · 2 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

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Jensen Huang stands in front of a white NVIDIA logo backdrop, wearing a black leather jacket, with both hands raised and open while speaking.
Jensen Huang gestures in front of an NVIDIA branded backdrop, with hardware visible at the bottom of the frame. (Photo: BenBen Lam via YouTube) © BenBen Lam via YouTube

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) has a path to close above a $10 trillion market capitalization by January 31, 2028, the last day of its fiscal 2028. This morning its market cap is $5.70 trillion, so the stock needs to gain 75.5%.

On 24,147,000,000 shares outstanding, that works out to about $414 per share. An early test comes with the Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings report, expected after the close on November 17, 2026. The company has not confirmed that date yet.

An infographic titled 'Prediction: Nvidia Could Become the World's First $10 Trillion Company on This Date'. It shows 'The Path to $10 Trillion', starting with 'NOW: October 5, 2026' and a 'Current Market Cap: $5.70 Trillion' with 'Shares Outstanding: 24,147,000,000'. An arrow points to a 'TARGET: January 31, 2028 (End of Fiscal 2028)' with a 'Market Cap Goal: $10 Trillion', indicating 'Required Growth: +75.5%' and 'Target Share Price: ~$414'. Below, 'Valuation & Earnings Estimates (Fiscal 2028)' presents an 'Avg. Analyst EPS Estimate: $15.6951' (from 53 analysts), 'Implied P/E Ratio at Target: ~26x' (Current Forward P/E: ~25x, 42 Up Revisions, 0 Down Revisions in Past 30 Days), and 'Estimate Trend (90 Days): +23.5%'. The 'Growth & Supply Constraints' section shows 'Revenue Growth & Guidance' with a bar for 'Q2 FY2027' at '$96.22B' (+105.8% YoY) and 'Q3 FY2027' at '$108.0B ± 2%' (Excludes China Compute). Also shown is 'Fiscal 2028 Revenue Growth Outlook: ~70%' and a quote from CEO Jensen Huang: 'At this moment, we have supply for 70%. Our demand is much higher than that.' followed by 'Outlook is Supply-Constrained'. A section on 'Vera Rubin: Revenue Per Gigawatt Catalyst' displays three blocks: 'Hopper: $18 Billion', 'Blackwell: $25 Billion', and 'Vera Rubin: $40 Billion'. Underneath, text notes 'Vera Rubin expected to account for ~20% of Data Center Revenue in Q3' and 'Hyperscaler Capital Expenditure: Top 5 expected to spend nearly $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027'. The final section, 'What to Watch: Q3 Fiscal 2027 Earnings (Expected Nov 17, 2026)', lists bullet points: 'Revenue: At or above $108.0B guidance', 'Non-GAAP EPS: vs. $2.4733 consensus (5 consecutive beats)', 'Gross Margin: Within forecast 74.0% ± 50bps', 'Fiscal 2028 Growth Target: Update on ~70% outlook', 'Supply Chain Metrics: DSO (rose to 60 days), Supply Obligations ($279.0B)'. The infographic concludes with text stating: 'With analysts raising estimates and demand outstripping supply, the $10 trillion target remains within reach.'
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$10 Trillion Takes Only 26x Next Year’s Earnings

The average analyst estimate for fiscal 2028 EPS is $15.6951, drawn from 53 analysts. A $414 share price works out to about 26x that figure. Today the stock trades at about 25x forward earnings, so the target needs NVIDIA to deliver earnings growth.

It needs almost no help from a higher multiple. Estimates are also rising: the fiscal 2028 consensus was $12.7102 90 days ago, and it has since rose 23.5%. Over the past 30 days, analysts made 42 up revisions and zero down ones.

NVDA price scenario

Supply Caps Management’s 70% Growth Guidance

Q2 revenue came in at $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year and ahead of the $92.07 billion estimate. Data Center revenue reached $89.02 billion. For fiscal 2028, management expects revenue growth of about 70% and called that outlook supply-constrained.

CEO Jensen Huang put it this way: “At this moment, we have supply for 70%. Our demand is much higher than that.” Q3 guidance is $108 billion ± 2%, and that figure includes no China Data Center compute revenue.

NVDA earnings explorer

Vera Rubin Raises Revenue Per Gigawatt to $40 Billion

NVIDIA earned about $18 billion per gigawatt with Hopper and $25 billion with Blackwell. With Vera Rubin, that figure rises to $40 billion. Management expects Vera Rubin to account for about 20% of Data Center revenue in Q3.

Existing and planned OpenAI commitments come to roughly 12 gigawatts of NVIDIA computing capacity. Spending is rising across the industry too: management expects the top five hyperscalers to spend nearly $800 billion on capital projects in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027.

NVDA price target

What to Watch on November 17

  • Revenue at or above the $108 billion guidance.
  • Non-GAAP EPS compared with the $2.4733 consensus. The company has beaten estimates for 5 straight quarters.
  • Gross margin within the forecast 74% ± 50bps. Management expects margins to bottom at 71% to 72% in Q4.
  • Any update to the fiscal 2028 growth target of about 70%.
  • Days sales outstanding, which rose to 60 days from 45, and supply obligations of $279 billion.
NVDA analyst ratings

If NVIDIA misses the January 31, 2028 deadline, the likely reasons are a supply chain already running flat out or memory costs eating into margins. Even so, analysts keep raising earnings estimates and demand still tops supply, so the $10 trillion target remains within reach.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

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