Bettors See a 55% Chance Jensen Huang Is Out as Nvidia CEO Before 2029
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As of about 11 p.m. ET on Monday, November 9, 2026, traders on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, put the chance that Jensen Huang leaves as CEO of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) before January 1, 2029 at about 53% to 55%. Yes contracts were offered at 55 cents, and recent trades went through at 53 to 54 cents.
The trading follows a reported October 29 conclusion by U.S. intelligence officials that Megaspeed executive Alice Huang (no relation) was a Chinese intelligence asset, a narrative China’s Foreign Ministry called unsubstantiated. Huang said in a November 8 staff memo that he had fallen short of his responsibilities, and the board opened an independent investigation the same day.
Nvidia fell 4.27%, or $7.97, to $178.67 on November 9 on volume of 462.6 million shares, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) rose 2.37%. It was the lowest close since April 7, 2026, when shares ended at $178.10, and 25.3% below the October 6 record close of $239.24.
The same event priced an exit before January 1, 2027 at about 13% to 14%, before July 1, 2027 at 31% to 32%, and before January 1, 2028 at about 39% to 40%. The curve rises to 62% by 2031 and about 70% by 2033. A board investigation runs for months. An orderly succession takes longer, so traders see little chance of a sudden exit and a real chance of a handoff over two to three years.
Any Announced Departure Pays, Including Retirement
A Yes contract pays only when Huang actually leaves the job, and the exit is announced before the deadline, as naming a future departure date is insufficient and any reason counts, including retirement or health.
The 2029 price therefore covers every path out of the CEO’s office, with a firing as one path among several. A rival market counting only leaving or removal put an announcement by December 31, 2026 at about 15.5%.
Thin Trading Weakens the 2029 Reading
The event shows about $394,000 in total volume. About 225,000 contracts traded in the before-2027 market, compared with about 11,000 in the before-2029 market.
The 2029 contract traded near 11 cents on the evening of November 6, read 35% in an early-afternoon roundup on November 9 and showed 55% by about 9 p.m. ET. Moves that large on volume that light reflect a few traders, so the near-dated contracts deserve more weight.
November 17 Earnings Put the Business Back in Focus
Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.22 billion, up 105.8% from a year earlier. It guided third-quarter revenue to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.
A successor would inherit those customers, contracts and product cycles, although the company would lose the person who sets its strategy and closes its largest partnerships. The report scheduled for November 17 is the next real test.
What the Exit Odds Mean for NVDA Stock Before November 17
The selloff to $178.67 looks overdone to me. The shares now trade at a marked-down price for a company guiding to $108.0 billion in quarterly revenue while traders price only about 13% to 14% odds of an exit before 2027.
The probe could still surface negative facts, but the board said it had no reason to believe national security or Nvidia’s secrets were exposed, and the higher long-dated readings mostly describe a founder’s future succession, which is a normal part of having a founder-led company.
If the November 17 report misses its guidance range, or the July 2027 contract climbs back past its November 8 peak of 44%, the governance story has started to win, and the case needs rethinking.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
