D-Wave Quantum Crashed 60% in 2026 But This Major Investment Bank Expects Shares to Quadruple
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D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ:QBTS) trades at $10.48, while the average analyst price target sits at $33.21. The difference points to upside of roughly 217%.
D-Wave is the only quantum company developing both annealing, which is production-ready today, and gate-model systems. Customers like NTT DOCOMO and a Fortune 100 enterprise already run its annealing applications in production. TD Cowen holds the Street-high target of $44.00, which implies about 320% upside, or a near quadrupling.
Misses, Margin Compression and Dilution Sank D-Wave 60%
Revenue failed to keep pace with rising costs. Second-quarter revenue of $3.076M missed the $4.028M consensus while operating expenses nearly doubled to $54.98M, pushed up by the January Quantum Circuits acquisition. The stock is down 59.92% this year.
The third quarter offered no relief. Revenue of $4.513M beat estimates, but EPS of -$0.13 missed the -$0.10 estimate, gross margin fell to 52.9% from 71.4%, and quarterly bookings slid 19% to $1.9 million. Shares fell 8.63% in the latest session.
Cash and investments dropped to $503.4 million from a record $884.5M at the end of 2025, while shares outstanding grew from 266.6M to 358.7M. A shareholder class action alleging false and/or misleading statements adds another overhang.
Fifteen of 17 Analysts Still See a $33 Stock in the Wreckage
Coverage remains uneven: one Strong Buy, 14 Buys and two Holds, with no Sells. TD Cowen’s Krish Sankar maintains an Outperform rating, while Rosenblatt and Roth MKM sit at $43.00. The core thesis holds that annealing gives D-Wave a real-world deployment lead over purely experimental gate-model rivals.
The nearest catalyst is the $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University. Management expects to deliver it in the fourth quarter, booking a substantial portion of revenue immediately. Consensus calls for fourth-quarter revenue of about $32.4 million and 2027 revenue of $80.6 million. Nine-month bookings reached $37.4M (+611%), and 59% of the $38.3M backlog should convert within 12 months.
Bulls also point to cloud monetization. Subscription revenue rose 56%. The sales pipeline “increased more than 75% from the end of the second quarter.”, and D-Wave also secured access to up to $100 million in CHIPS Act funding, although “no CHIPS Act funds have been received” yet.
Consensus still projects losses of -$0.2982 per share this year and -$0.3788 in 2027, and the gate-model roadmap reaches to 100 logical qubits (2032). Price targets are opinions, and these assume years of perfect execution.
Quantum Peers Sold Off Too, but D-Wave Fell Hardest
The whole group retreated, and D-Wave posted the steepest decline.
IonQ (NYSE:IONQ | IONQ Price Prediction) is down 22.02% this year at $34.96, against a $54.27 target, implying about 55% upside. Analysts count one Strong Buy, 11 Buys and two Holds. After third-quarter revenue of $173.8 million, IonQ raised full-year guidance.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) has fallen 45.15% to $12.15. Its $26.69 target implies roughly 120% upside, with one Strong Buy, eight Buys and four Holds. Third-quarter revenue of $1.41 million missed estimates.
D-Wave carries the largest analyst-implied upside in the group, making it either the most mispriced name or the one with the most outdated targets.
A Stock Down Nearly 60% While the S&P 500 Climbed
D-Wave currently trades at $10.48 against a $33.21 average target from 17 analysts, implying roughly 217% upside.
Shares have lost 59.92% year to date and 28.07% in the past month. The S&P 500 has gained 9.99% this year. The 52-week range runs from $8.48 to $32.39, and a beta of 2.334 means volatility cuts both ways.
FAU Revenue Is the Proof D-Wave Needs Before the $33 Target Means Anything
The bull case improves if the FAU delivery lands on schedule, system sales lift revenue toward the $80.6 million 2027 consensus, and CHIPS milestones start paying out. That path rerates the stock as backlog converts and margins recover.
The bear case improves if bookings stay stuck near third-quarter levels, cash keeps draining and dilution resumes, as lumpy system sales can slid a quarter at a time and the lawsuit adds uncertainty.
A 60% drawdown reflects heavy disappointment, and the fourth-quarter report is the test. Watch the stock until FAU revenue appears in the numbers.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
