Nvidia Vs. AMD: No, Neither is Getting Choked Out By Congress Come January
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Two chipmakers just reported record AI quarters: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD). Both also face a Washington that wants to control where advanced chips go. Today, Democratic Senate Leader Schumer called the White House defense of NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang “troubling.” The earnings suggest a tougher Congress can limit foreign growth while both core businesses keep growing.
Rubin Racks Carry NVIDIA as Helios Finally Lands at AMD
NVIDIA reported revenue of $96.22B, up 105.8% year over year. Revenue doubled at a scale no other chipmaker has reached. Data Center networking rose 138%, which shows customers are buying complete AI factories. Vera Rubin production shipments began in August, and Huang summed it up simply: “Now, compute is revenue.”
AMD’s revenue of $13.38B beat the $13.08B consensus, and Data Center sales of $8.55B rose 97%. That segment now makes up 64% of revenue, so AMD’s results depend more and more on AI infrastructure (the same expansion is lifting suppliers of power, cooling and networking gear we profiled in a free report, here). Anthropic, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), OpenAI and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) brought their first Helios racks online. Gaming fell 40% late in the console cycle, a drag that looks cyclical.
| Business Driver | NVIDIA | AMD |
|---|---|---|
| Flagship Platform | Vera Rubin, Blackwell Ultra | Helios racks, MI450 Series |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 75.0% | 56% |
| Next-Quarter Revenue Guide | $108.0B +/- 2% | ~$17B +/- 3% |
| China Exposure | Left out from outlook | Export rules cited as a risk |
NVIDIA Finances Its Own Demand While AMD Sells Cheaper Tokens
NVIDIA has invested nearly $50 billion in frontier AI labs. It also provides take-or-pay commitments that set a revenue floor for NeoCloud facilities. Huang acknowledged that critics call this circular financing. I think the model is smart, but I want more disclosure on who takes the credit risk.
AMD competes on total cost of ownership, and it paired Helios with ROCm 10 to narrow the software gap. Lisa Su cited “very strong performance with the initial deployments.” That push is costing cash. Free cash flow fell 71% to $554M as inventory reached $11.46B. AMD is building ahead of demand that it says tops supply.
Export Oversight Will Squeeze Foreign Growth Come January
NVIDIA’s outlook already left out China Data Center compute. China Hopper shipments were <1% of Data Center revenue. AMD lists export regulations among its risks. Aggressive oversight from Congress would mainly tighten compliance and slow expansion abroad, effectively capping foreign revenue growth . Meanwhile, NVIDIA expects about 70% growth in fiscal 2028 and says that outlook is limited by supply. AMD expects 2027 revenue to grow more than 80%. Memory costs bear watching, since NVIDIA guides Q4 gross margin to 71% to 72%.
How NVIDIA’s Lower China Risk Stacks Up Against AMD’s Steeper Growth Curve
NVIDIA holds the stronger position on export risk. It sells the full stack and makes gross margins near 75%. It has also already removed China from its forecasts, so new rules have less to take away. The stock fell 18.29% in a week, while the underlying business remains limited by supply.
AMD offers a steeper growth curve. Its shares are up 140.57% year to date, so expectations are already high. Both outlooks would face pressure if Congress extended licensing rules to sovereign buyers, because NVIDIA’s sovereign AI business grew 35% sequentially.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
