Rigetti Drops 5% on Revenue Miss and Soft 2026 Outlook; IonQ Slides 2%, D-Wave Rises 2%

Quantum computing’s earnings week has produced a clear laggard in Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI), whose Q3 2026 report showed shrinking sales and a soft full-year outlook. Rigetti stock is at $11.52 this morning, down 5%. The company posted its numbers after the bell on November 10, and its closest peers are splitting in both directions.

Rigetti’s Q3 revenue fell 28% year over year to $1.4 million, missing Fiscal.ai’s $3.52 million consensus estimate. The quarter included no recognized hardware revenue. Rigetti’s adjusted loss of $0.06 per share also missed expectations, as Fiscal.ai’s consensus projected a $0.05 loss.

Rigetti’s 2026 Outlook Hinges on One System in India

Rigetti expects full-year 2026 revenue of about $20 million, trailing Fiscal.ai’s $22.78 million analyst consensus. That outlook assumes customer acceptance of a 108-qubit system ordered by India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), with the associated revenue recognized in Q4 2026.

On the November 10 earnings call, Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni said data center operators need clear proof that quantum computing beats classical computers before they invest. The technology isn’t there yet. Kulkarni stated, “Our general view is that quantum computing is still very much in the R&D phase. We need to perfect the technology before we can really expect commercial sales to take off.”

Hardware progress offered some balance, as Rigetti’s Cepheus-1-108Q system reached a 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity in Q3, hitting its target. The balance sheet adds a buffer, with Rigetti reporting $497.1 million in cash and investments as of September 30 and no debt.

Needham cut its Rigetti price target to $15 from $31 and kept a Buy rating, attributing the shortfall to the timing of system deliveries. Mizuho trimmed its target to $17 from $22 and maintained an Outperform rating, mentioning “soft” guidance.

What IonQ and D-Wave Reveal About Rigetti’s Slide

IonQ (NYSE:IONQ | IONQ Price Prediction) stock is at $34.22, down 2%. That decline is shallower than Rigetti’s and arrives after IonQ raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance on November 5, unlike the outlook that disappointed on November 10.

Meanwhile, D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ:QBTS) stock is at $10.71, up 2%. Shares of D-Wave sank on November 10 after its earnings laid bare quantum computing’s commercial growing pains, so the gain follows a selloff. Revenue at D-Wave rose 20.7% year over year to $4.51 million in Q3, beating the consensus estimate, while the company’s per-share loss missed expectations. Nine-month bookings at D-Wave jumped 611%.

Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ:QUBT) rounds out the group of quantum peers. With IonQ lower and D-Wave higher, the selling looks concentrated in Rigetti. Broader markets add another layer, as Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee described the latest inflation report “borderline disturbing” as policymakers consider more rate increases.

How Rigetti’s Business Model Differs From Its Peers

Rigetti builds superconducting, chiplet-based gate-model quantum computers and sells them on-premises to governments, national labs and universities, along with cloud access, and that project-based model makes the company’s revenue lumpy since recognition depends on customer acceptance of a small number of systems.

IonQ runs a broader platform built on trapped-ion technology, adding its own foundry through SkyWater plus security, networking and sensing lines, and D-Wave sells production-ready annealing systems and cloud access while it develops gate-model machines, giving it a dual-platform pitch. Quantum Computing Inc. takes a photonic approach that operates at room temperature without the cryogenic infrastructure that superconducting systems need.

Rigetti’s C-DAC Milestone Sets Up a Pivotal Q4

Rigetti now faces the question of whether C-DAC accepts its system in time for the company to recognize that revenue in Q4. A delay could push the full-year outlook further below consensus, and rising operating expenses, a growing operating loss and dilution from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s equity stake add pressure. Quantum names like this one are the definition of speculative, and keeping that exposure small with real rules is the whole point of our free speculation playbook.

Supporters can point to Rigetti’s fidelity gains, its cash buffer and a definitive agreement with the department for up to $100 million, which back the company’s push toward a 300-plus-qubit system by mid-2028. Investors might consider those strengths against the execution risks until Rigetti’s C-DAC system acceptance finalizes.

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