Trump Blamed Gas Prices for the Midterm Wipeout, Then They Dropped Six Days Too Late

The U.S. average price of regular gasoline fell to $3.995 a gallon for the week of November 9, 2026, down from $4.153 the week before, a drop of $0.16 (3.8%). The weekly series comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and is distributed through the St. Louis Fed’s FRED database. The new reading was released on November 10, 2026, and it is the first weekly average under $4 since July.

The timing hurts the White House. On Election Day, November 3, the national average set a record of nearly $4.20 a gallon. The sub-$4 reading showed up six days after voters had already gave both chambers of Congress to Democrats.

Trump Said Gas Prices Didn’t Matter, Then Blamed Them for the Loss

Here is how the president’s comments lined up in order:

• October 26: Trump said he did not give a damn about gas prices with the midterms approaching (October 26, 2026).
• October 27: He posted that gasoline and diesel prices would “soon come plummeting down.”
• November 4: In a phone interview with Fox News, he said, “People agree with what I’m doing on Iran, but they really probably weren’t willing to do the short-term consequence of paying more for gasoline.” He also said again that prices would fall “in a short while.”

The decline he promised did come. It just came a week too late to help on the ballot. Oil markets moved quickly after the vote, with crude falling sharply the day after the election as investors weighed the political rebuke.

Where $3.995 Fits in a Year of Painful Pump Prices

This table tracks the weekly series over the past year and ends with the new reading.

The national average has come down in every weekly reading since the $4.478 print on September 21. Over the past month it has fallen $0.36 (8.2%). Even so, it sits well above the past-year average of $3.738 and lands in the 47.2 percentile of the year’s readings. Through October 14, 2026 had already logged a record 158 days with gas above $4. Gas in Trump’s second term has averaged $3.458 a gallon, a bit more than the $3.455 average across Biden’s four years, according to EIA data.

What a Fill-Up Costs Drivers Now

The relief is real, but the starting point was high. Gas is up $0.939 a gallon from a year ago, an increase of about 30.7%. At the new average, a 15-gallon tank costs roughly $59.93. The same tank cost about $45.84 at the November 2025 price and $67.50 at the May peak. The pump average is still $0.505 below that May high.

Gas costs are also spreading into the wider economy. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October to a period high. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 in September, down from 55.2 in July.

Two Competing Forecasts About to Be Tested

Two views of where prices go from here are now on the record. On October 19, economist Julia Coronado warned there would be no real relief at the pump. On November 7, David Sacks argued that ending the Iran war would bring prices down. Crude explains part of the gap between them. WTI fell to $99.64 on November 3, down 3.6% on the week. That still leaves it close to the $100 level that marks high, inflationary oil.

Retail prices also tend to fall more slowly than they rise. Consumer advocate Clark Howard described the pattern on October 21, 2026: “When gasoline prices go up, they go up in a nanosecond. But then when the cost of oil coming out of the ground goes down, it’s a really, really slow process down.”

What to Watch in Next Week’s Reading

The series is published weekly, with weeks ending Monday. The latest scheduled release was November 10, 2026, so the next reading will cover the week ending Monday, November 16. Sacks’ view gains support if that reading falls toward the $3.738 past-year average. Coronado’s warning gains ground if it climbs back above $4. Households and small businesses with heavy driving costs should keep the slow-decline pattern in mind when they set holiday travel and fuel budgets.

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