Meta Nose-Dived 12% Over a Month: This Pro Analyst Expects 60% Gains Within 12 Months
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Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) is priced at $628.77, and Wall Street’s average price target is $850.10. That leaves an implied upside of 35.2%.
Meta runs Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads, which reach 3.64 billion daily active people. Wall Street is watching its AI spending and its new Muse personal agent. The most bullish firm, Truist Securities, holds a Street-high $1,000 target. From here, that works out to 59% upside.
A $9.89 Billion Legal Charge Turned a Revenue Beat Into a Headline Miss
The main reason for the stock’s recent drop is a third-quarter GAAP EPS of $3.83. That missed expectations of $5.70 by 32.79%. A one-time $9.89 billion charge caused the miss. It covers Meta’s settlement with 52 state attorneys general over teen mental health. Without the charge, EPS would have been $7.40. Revenue came in at $64.60 billion, up 26.07%, and beat estimates.
Spending is the second worry. Operating margin fell to 20% from 40%. Quarterly capex rose 85.38% to $34.91 billion, and free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion. This was also Meta’s second straight EPS miss, after a Q2 result of $6.18 against $7.22 expected. Analysts made 40 down revisions to 2026 EPS over the past 30 days and only 7 upward ones. The pressure continued this week when the stock fell after United Airlines announced an AI-bot ban.
Truist’s $1,000 Target Rests on Muse Turning Into a Real Business
Analysts remain mostly positive. Of 62 analysts, 9 rate Meta Strong Buy, 46 rate it Buy, 6 say Hold and 1 says Sell. Since the earnings report, targets have held near the top of the range. Truist set its target at $1,000, up from $763. Wells Fargo cut slightly to $995, and Mizuho and Canaccord Genuity sit at $950.
Muse supports the positive thesis. More than 10 million people in the U.S. and Canada set up Muse agents in a month and a half. Over 25% of users shop through it, with an average purchase above $200. Truist’s model has Muse reaching $28.5 billion in annual revenue by 2030. The company plans to improve compute efficiency by more than 10x over the next year. The CFO said AI businesses should begin adding incremental revenue in 2027.
The core ad business is still growing. Ad impressions rose 10%, and average price per ad rose 14%. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $73 billion to $76 billion. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 19. Analysts are looking for that multiple to reflect returns as Meta’s spending starts to pay off.
Alphabet and Snap Fell Even Harder Than Meta This Month
The whole digital ad group sold off at once. Meta’s drop was about average for its peers.
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) fell 16.8% over the month to $293.45. Its average target is $400.37, meaning 36.4% upside. Analysts assign 10 Strong Buy ratings, 43 Buy ratings and 5 Hold ratings. Its upside is slightly larger than Meta’s.
Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) dropped 10.22% to $19.24 after missing both revenue and EPS estimates. Its $25.11 target meaning 30.5% upside. Analysts are split, with 19 Holds against 19 Buy or Strong Buy ratings.
Snap (NYSE:SNAP) fell 18.22% to $5.36. Its $6.96 target meaning 29.9% upside. With 29 Holds, it has the lowest analyst support of the group.
Alphabet offers the most consensus upside, and Meta is a close second. Meta also has nearly all Buy ratings and the Street-high target that gives this story its 59% headline figure.
Meta Is Down for the Year While the S&P 500 Has Gained Double Digits
Meta trades at $628.77 against a consensus target of $850.10. That meaning 35.2% upside, based on 62 analysts. Price targets are estimates and can be wrong.
The stock has fallen 15.37% over the past month, while the S&P 500 fell 2.36%. So far this year, Meta is down 4.51% and the S&P 500 is up 11.41%. Its 52-week range runs from $519.37 to $779.82.
Meta’s Selloff Looks Overdone, With Legal Risk Still Hanging Over It
The upside scenario improves if Muse starts producing commerce and subscription revenue in 2027 and compute efficiency gains slow the growth in spending. Risks grow if more youth-related trials lead to new settlements, or if 2027 capex rises toward the $190 billion Truist projects without revenue keeping pace.
On the positive side, revenue grew 26.07%, and the legal charge is a one-time hit. The downside is that negative free cash flow and more litigation could significantly affect future results. On balance, the data leans bullish. A forward P/E of 19 is modest for a business still growing at this pace. Keep an eye on the stock around next quarter’s capex guidance.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
